If analytics decided the 2023-24 NHL Awards, who would win?
Last season, I tried to figure out who would win the more notable NHL awards if they were decided solely on analytics. It was an interesting counter-perspective to that season with almost every award locked up in terms of who the winner was, and while there were a couple of similar results, the exercises also yielded its fair share of surprises.
This season’s awards are a much different story. There a couple that are locked up at this point, but there’s also quite a few for which the winner is still up in the air, especially with the most important award, the Hart Trophy. There were still a couple of surprise results this season, but a lot of them actually lined up with the public perception of the awards and who should be winning them this year, and it might have even served as a way to settle the Hart debate this year.
Again, I’m not saying the winners of the awards with this method should win the awards; it just provides a different perspective on it. That said, since most of the main trophies actually have similar results to what we expect will happen in real life, so maybe this method works. A lot of it will be determined through Evolving Hockey’s Goals Above Replacement model, or at least specific aspects of it depending on the award (ie. defensive GAR to determine the Selke, penalties taken GAR to determine the Lady Byng).
Hart Memorial Trophy
Winner: Nathan MacKinnon, COL
Runners up: Auston Matthews, TOR; Connor McDavid, EDM
The Hart Trophy has been a hotly contested debate all season, one that even I’ve weighed in on recently. It’s difficult because of the four main candidates, all of them have reasonable cases to win, and there isn’t really a wrong answer when making your choice. On top of that, you could even argue that a Connor Hellebuyck or a Roman Josi could also be considered for the award. It was a race that came down to the wire and I do not envy the people who had to vote on it this year.
I was pleasantly surprised when the results for going by GAR came up as three of the four main candidates in Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews and Connor McDavid, but it wasn’t a surprise to see that the results of the three were very close. All three were within about four GARs of each other, which is equal to about half a win above replacement, and most of that is MacKinnon having the more sizable gap of 36 GAR to get the win. With Matthews and McDavid it was super close, with Matthews’ 32.6 just edging out McDavid’s 32.4. I’m sure that will really lend itself to the “goals vs. assists” debate. But ultimately it was MacKinnon being better offensively than Matthews and better defensively than McDavid to be the more well-rounded player of the three that secured him the win.
I’m sure many are wondering how close Nikita Kucherov was to the other three. The answer is that he wasn’t nearly as close. He finished 7th in GAR this season, with Zach Hyman, Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes all finishing in between him and the big three. Ultimately that came down to his defensive play, as Kucherov’s -2.3 defensive GAR was the worst out of any player in the top 10 and did drag him behind the rest of the pack, although even a neutral defensive GAR would have still only moved him up one spot.
Lady Byng Memorial Trophy
Winner: Jaccob Slavin, CAR
Runner-Up: Cale Makar, COL; Auston Matthews, TOR
While any player could be up for contention for the Lady Byng just by simply not taking any penalties, it’s definitely more impressive when a top flight player ends up as one of the more disciplined players in the league. Whether you’re a top line center constantly trying to win puck battles or a top pair defenseman shutting down the league’s best players, it’s much harder for a player of that caliber to stay disciplined when there are so many more situations where they can get themselves in trouble.
That’s why it’s certainly no surprise that the three players who ended up as the finalists for this year’s award are who they are. Jaccob Slavin has won the award once, Matthews has been a front-runner twice, and while Cale Makar has never been a finalist, he’s usually been a clean player outside of his hit in last year’s playoffs. The Avs defenseman even had an instance last season where the refs called a penalty after he appeared to be tripped, but he told them to call it off because he actually just fell.
The only surprise here would be that Matthews and Makar did take a few more penalties than normal to be considered for this award. Makar’s 16 penalty minutes are still respectable and the fewest he’s had in three years, but Matthews had 20 for the second straight year, and both totals are the most he’s had in a season in his career. Both players finished with 2.9 penalties taken goals above replacement, so it’s likely that some of their penalties were just ones that don’t get taken into consideration for Evolving Wild’s model (ie. bench minors, offsetting penalties, fighting majors). Still, they lost out to Slavin in the end, who also only had eight penalty minutes on the year.
Vezina Trophy
Winner: Connor Hellebuyck, WPG
Runner-Up: Joey Daccord, SEA; Jeremy Swayman, BOS
The Vezina Trophy is probably one of the few awards this season that was a lay-up for most voters. Hellebuyck was far and away the best goaltender in the league, leading all goalies with at least 30 games played in save percentage at .921% and his 39.35 goals saved above expected was almost 10 goals above the second-ranked Jordan Binnington. Hellebuyck was dominant all year, and it’s a big reason why the Winnipeg Jets were so good all season.
So it should be no surprise that Hellebuyck is also the top choice for the Vezina by the numbers. I already listed off a couple that he was the best in, but the one that mattered in this choice was his GAR, which was at 41.5 and 10.1 ahead of the next-best goalie. You don’t need analytics to tell you how good he was this year, but it certainly supports that case.
Where the surprises do come with this award and differ from reality are the other two finalists. Jeremy Swayman isn’t as much of one because he had a really good year, but he also probably didn’t end up as a finalist in real life due to the split duties between himself and Linus Ullmark. Joey Daccord is likely the biggest surprise, but he’s just as high up as the other goalies mentioned. In fact, he’s the aforementioned goalie that was 10.1 GAR below Hellebuyck, as his 31.4 GAR was second. His record and the Seattle Kraken’s lack of success down the stretch probably made people forget about Daccord’s play, but he was right there with the best of them this year, and it was a big reason why the Kraken were in playoff contention for most of the season.
Calder Memorial Trophy
Winner: Tyson Foerster, PHI
Runner-Up: Luke Evangelista, NSH; Joel Hofer, STL
Last year’s Calder Trophy candidates still ended up being similar to the actual results, with Stuart Skinner being a finalist for the award and Matty Beniers winning it. However, this was still a surprise submission in Jonathan Kovacevic, who had strong underlying numbers as a defenseman to get himself into the conversation over Owen Power.
This year, the analytics decided to go all in on the crazy results, because not a single player who was a finalist in the actual voting results was a finalist here. Brock Faber nearly made it in as a finalist, but Connor Bedard and Luke Hughes are nowhere to be found. The thing with rookies and their underlying numbers is that they’re usually trying to establish themselves in the league with their skill, and their game will round out more in later years. For instance, Bedard led the league in offensive GAR, but unfortunately his defense held him out of this conversation.
That means that having good defensive numbers will really help your case here, because you’re one of the few rookies who are good in that regard. That’s why Tyson Foerster grades out so well here, because his 6.7 defensive GAR was miles better than any other rookie. Luke Evangelista was a bit further down in a tie for 12th, but his 2.5 defensive GAR really complements his 6.7 offensive GAR. And to round it all out, we have Joel Hofer as the best of the rookie goalies, as the fact that he finished the year with a .914 SV% despite playing behind a Blues team that was the fifth-worst at suppressing 5v5 expected goals went under the radar, even if he only played 30 games.
James Norris Memorial Trophy
Winner: Quinn Hughes, VAN (2nd-time finalist, 1st win)
Runner-Up: Evan Bouchard, EDM; Roman Josi, NSH
The Norris Trophy was actually one of the surprising results last season, with none of the main candidates cracking the analytics finalists, and the award going to Vince Dunn instead of Erik Karlsson. This season, it is much closer to the Norris Trophy finalists that were announced on Wednesday.
Hughes was actually one of the surprise candidates last season, finishing second in that awards race and perhaps giving hockey fans a sneak peak for what was to come this year. He had always had a reputation as an offensive defenseman but saw his defensive game improve significantly last year, and now that the Vancouver Canucks were so successful around him, he’s gotten a lot more deserved attention and will likely win it this year. If he doesn’t, it’ll probably go to Josi, who finished third here.
The only difference from the actual finalists is that Evan Bouchard found himself higher up in the conversation, although it wouldn’t be too much of a surprise to find out that he finished fourth or fifth in Norris Trophy voting when that gets released. While he does benefit from playing around a talented Edmonton Oilers squad, this isn’t just about his point totals. His defensive game has always been solid, but he was prone to The Big Mistake that scares coaches. But since the addition of Mattias Ekholm last season, Bouchard has been given a lot more leeway to play his game, and as a result he’s become one of the best defensemen in the league.
Jack Adams Award
Winner: Kris Knoblauch, EDM
Runner-Up: Rod Brind’Amour, CAR; Pete DeBoer, DAL
The Jack Adams Award is always a tough one to get a truly correct answer for when using analytics because we still have no way to quantify the impact of a coach on a team. Is a team good because of their talented roster, or are they good because of their coach? It’s why the voting always seems to default to “you won because you did better than we expected you to.” However, I’ve decided to use team’s results in 5v5 expected goal share as the way to determine this award, and operate under the assumption that the coach contributes to it both by their system and, in the case of more talented rosters, putting their best players in the best positions to succeed and then staying out of their way.
And yet, the top choice ends up going to a coach that falls under the cliche candidacy. Kris Knoblauch joined an Edmonton Oilers squad who was 3-9-1, and almost dead last in the league, and after he took over, they went 46-18-5 and finished ninth in the league. Some of that was expected regression from their poor goaltending to start the season, but there were also some notable tactical adjustments that he made to their defensive systems that was more beneficial to their goaltending, particularly with his less aggressive use of the fifth skater in the box zone system that both he and Jay Woodcroft have used.
Rod Brind’Amour finishes second after winning the award last year, and it’s surprising that he isn’t a coach that finishes in the final three more consistently. Most players that join his team usually see an improvement in their play (even Evgeny Kuznetsov), and it’s been well documented how much players love to play for him, so he should get more consideration as one of the top coaches in the league. Rounding out this year’s finalists is Pete DeBoer, who’s actually never been a finalist before. He’s always fallen under the radar, and while I wouldn’t exactly call him a coach that significantly alters a team’s performance, this year’s Stars team saw success because he actually got out of their way, particularly with the deployment of Thomas Harley.
Frank J. Selke Trophy
Winner: Jason Robertson, DAL
Runner-Up: Noah Cates, PHI; Aleksander Barkov, FLA
If there’s one award that I think could significantly benefit from incorporating analytics more into deciding the winners, it’s the Selke Trophy. Defense is such a hard thing to gauge with the eye test, because the eye test involves evaluating something that happens, and the entire concept of defense is that it’s supposed to prevent something from happening. And in terms of box score stats, you’re left with faceoffs and plus/minus, which are just about the worst stats you can use in that regard, and it results in voters picking players that are good offensively and defensively, and usually going off reputation more than anything. It’s not completely wrong as a line of thinking (Patrice Bergeron probably should have won the award every year until he retired), but it means that some players don’t quite get the attention they deserve in this award.
Case in point, Aleksander Barkov. Obviously he’s an incredible defensive player, as shown by the fact that he finished third here, but by reputation, he appears to be the runaway favorite this year. And yet, there were still two players that were better defensively this season. It adds up to a difference of about one defensive GAR, so this is mostly just splitting hairs, but it leads to other players like Noah Cates, who is an analytics Selke finalist for the second year in a row, not getting as much attention because they aren’t as well known, especially when Cates only had 18 points this season.
And another problem with the traditional approach to the Selke Trophy: a player like Jason Robertson almost has no chance of winning the award. Not that he would never get consideration for the award, but most voters have almost always overlooked wingers as the top choice for the award because of the common conception that playing center has more defensive responsibility. In some aspects it does, but it’s often underselling the impact that wingers can have defensively as well. It’s criminal that Mark Stone hasn’t won the award when not miraculously recovering from some season-ending injury for the playoffs, and we need more winger recognition in this award. Interestingly enough, the last winger to win the award was also on the Dallas Stars, as Jere Lehtinen did so more than 20 years ago.
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