There are only two games tonight, so a full blown cheat sheet seems like a bit much, especially with the red-hot Pittsburgh Penguins taking on a not-so-hot Arizona Coyotes team. The likes of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang etc. will definitely be highly sought after. Below I’ve listed my top value plays at each position and their SaberSim Projections for this evening.
Andrew Shaw - vs. BOS – (DK-$4,300 / FD-$4,500)
SaberSim Projection: DK-3.15 / FD-11.37
The injuries to Alex Galchenuk and David Desharnais has created an opportunity for Shaw to move up the Canadiens’ depth chart and he comes into Monday having played very well in the last few week. Shaw has three goals, five assists, 17 shots (2.13 S/PG) in his last eight games. He ranks sixth on the team in shots/per60 and seventh in points/per60 and he currently plays on the top power-play unit with Max Pacioretty, Alex Radulov, Shea Weber and Andrei Markov.
Brendan Perlini - @ PIT – (DK-$2,800 / FD-$3,000)
SaberSim Projection: DK-2.63 / FD-9.22
Perlini was the 12th overall pick in 2014 and he’s getting an opportunity with the Coyotes. He had 16 points (11G / 5A) in 16 games with Tucson (AHL) before his call-up and he just scored his first career NHL goal on Saturday. His AHL number showcase his offensive potential and he’s already averaging around 15 minutes per night, including modest PP2 minutes. He will skate on the second line with Christian Dvorak and Shane Doan tonight and is a solid punt-play given his salary.
Zdeno Chara - @ MTL – (DK-$4,100 / FD-$4,700)
SaberSim Projection: DK-2.93 / FD-9.92
Chara’s offensive numbers this season are way down from what they normally are—he has just six points (1G / 5A) in 23 games. However, since he returned to the lineup on December 5th, Chara has averaged 2.0 shots on goal and just under one blocked shot, but the real reason he is a value option is because of some changes the Bruins made on Sunday. Chara is averaging just 0:22 PP/TOI this season, but he took Colin Miller’s spot on the second PP-unit in yesterday’s practice, so an uptick in PP time should help Chara get some more offensive opportunities tonight.
Mike Smith - @ PIT – (DK-$6,900 / FD-$8,300)
SaberSim Projection: DK-3.83 / FD-15.34
Smith is the only one of tonight’s starting goalies that can really be considered a “value play” on both DraftKings and FanDuel. However, he has a horrible matchup vs. the Penguins (who are averaging 5.6 goals per game in their last five), which leads to him having the lowest SaberSim Projections of the four goalies. With all of that in mind, there could be some sneaky value here. Smith has faced an average of 38 shots since returning from injury and has posted a .936 SV% over that stretch. SaberSim gives him a 33.9 percent chance of allowing two or fewer goals and that might be worth the gamble in GPP tournaments.
SaberSim Goalie Projections
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