2018 NHL Re-Draft: Svechnikov up, Dahlin down in do-over
The exercise of re-drafting a class is about as unfair as it gets to NHL scouts. I say it every time I do one of these because I want to be up front. Projecting which players are going to be the best pros is inexact and often humbling.
Not even four full seasons after this draft was held, we’re taking a look at the 2018 NHL Draft. It doesn’t seem like a long time, but when you consider this class already includes a team captain, two Calder Trophy finalists, a rich offer sheet recipient and at least a few Olympians as soon as February, a lot has happened in that short time.
With the class of 2018 having several intriguing individuals, I decided to take a look and re-draft based on the evidence we have so far. Re-drafting with hindsight is where it gets really unfair because we’re working off of four more seasons of information than the scouts had at the time, we get to see the players and how they look in the NHL and we’re far enough removed from our own draft-year biases to have dissipated. I purposely did not look back at my draft rankings from 2018, then at ESPN, so as to not remind myself too much of how I felt then. I, of course, reviewed after out of a morbid curiosity at how I did myself to this point and also because it’s only fair I show what I thought at the time right alongside what NHL teams did at the time.
Before we get started, a couple of facts and figures to better understand this draft class…
Out of 217 players drafted in 2018, 52 have played in at least one NHL game so far. Only 20, however, have appeared in more than 40 NHL games to date. Only seven have appeared in more than 100 NHL games to date and only four have scored 100 or more points in their careers – Andrei Svechnikov, Brady Tkachuk, Rasmus Dahlin and Quinn Hughes.
The book on the 2018 class is far from closed, but this is a decent way to do a bit of a status check on where things are right now.
NOTE: Re-drafted players are listed first, then the actual pick. Also included is where I ranked each player in my final 2018 NHL Draft Rankings for ESPN.com.
1. Buffalo Sabres
Re-Draft Selection: Andrei Svechnikov
Who was taken in 2018: Rasmus Dahlin
Peters 2018 Ranks: Dahlin 1st, Svechnikov 2nd
I still have a lot of belief in Rasmus Dahlin and where he is going despite the downward turn his game has seemingly taken this year. He hasn’t been perfect, but he’s still shown enough flashes of potential to lead me to believe he’s going to be a long-term top-pairing guy at the NHL level. That said, Andrei Svechnikov has become one of the best wings in the game and is only getting better as he progresses. I think his scoring ability and future as a power winger in the game will allow him to have a larger overall impact on his team than Dahlin will.
2. Carolina Hurricanes
Re-Draft Selection: Quinn Hughes
Who was taken in 2018: Andrei Svechnikov
Peters 2018 Ranks: Hughes 5th, Svechnikov 2nd
I considered Hughes for No. 1 for a good long while because I think he’s among the most unique defensemen in the game today. He is a foundational piece for Vancouver. With Svechnikov already off the board in the re-draft, knowing what we know now, Hughes is a significant difference maker who is setting a high standard for what offensive-minded defensemen could be. The only thing keeping him from being No. 1 on the redraft is that I think he still needs to be paired with a quality veteran partner to maximize his impact, though one day that probably won’t be the case.
3. Montreal Canadiens
2018 Re-Draft Selection: Rasmus Dahlin
Who was taken in 2018: Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Peters 2018 Ranks: Dahlin 1st, Kotkaniemi 8th
Here’s where things got tougher. I would say Brady Tkachuk has had a better NHL career to date compared to Dahlin, but since this is an early re-draft, I still believe in the ceiling and upside of Dahlin to go just ahead of the Senators captain here. Dahlin’s offensive skillset is particularly high end and he remains a very strong skater. If he can continue to get stronger and better defensively, he’s got the chance to still be a good top-pairing defenseman and that would be more valuable than a winger that’s probably going to hang around the middle of the pack in scoring.
4. Ottawa Senators
2018 Re-Draft Selection: Brady Tkachuk
Who was taken in 2018: Brady Tkachuk
Peters 2018 Ranks: Tkachuk 4th
The Sens have to be thrilled Tkachuk was available when they picked. Now they have their long-term captain and a guy who has made a significant commitment to the organization. On top of that, Tkachuk is an identity player, who can do a little bit of everything including score. The Sens are in one this season, but they have a good chance to climb out of where they’re at in the next few years with Tkachuk leading the way.
5. Arizona Coyotes
2018 Re-Draft Selection: Joel Farabee
Who was taken in 2018: Barrett Hayton
Peters 2018 Ranks: Farabee 13th, Hayton 14th
I certainly didn’t have Farabee this high when I was ranking players, but I think the way he plays helps you win games. He’s not dynamic, but he’s still quite skilled and brings a lot more to the table than just points. Farabee is a bear to play against and has the sixth most points in this draft class despite playing a lot fewer games than those ahead of him on the list. He’s been very good for the Flyers and if you saw how effective he can be in the NHL, there’s a lot of reason to redraft him this high.
6. Detroit Red Wings
2018 Re-Draft Selection: K’Andre Miller
Who was taken in 2018: Filip Zadina
Peters 2018 Ranks: Miller 17th, Zadina 3rd
Similar to how I feel about Dahlin, I think Miller has so much potential left to reach. As a result, his stock goes way up. If you can get a big, mobile defenseman for your top four, especially one with the offensive upside Miller has, you jump at it. He’s such a rare package of size and speed for the back end that it’s too good to pass up over other options here. I think he’s just scratching the surface.
7. Vancouver Canucks
2018 Re-Draft Selection: Filip Zadina
Who was taken in 2018: Quinn Hughes
Peters 2018 Ranks: Zadina 3rd, Hughes 5th
Zadina has not lit it up as a pro like I thought he would, but he’s still finding ways to impact the game. He has 45 points in 109 games and I still think there’s offensive ceiling for him to reach. What I like about Zadina, however, is that he is adjusting his game to make sure he can help his team in other ways. He’s more responsible in his own end and still has the skill to make things difficult for the opposition.
8. Chicago Blackhawks
2018 Re-Draft Selection: Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Who was taken in 2018: Adam Boqvist
Peters 2018 Ranks: Kotkaniemi 8th, Boqvist 7th
Kotkaniemi may have been a reach at No. 3, but he’s still been a very serviceable NHL player. He’s lacked consistency, however, and has never topped 0.43 points per game in a season – his solid rookie year. That said, among the players in the class, he’s had enough success at the NHL level to believe there could be more coming from the 21-yea-old Finn.
9. New York Rangers
2018 Re-Draft Selection: Ty Smith
Who was taken in 2018: Vitali Kravtsov
Peters 2018 Ranks: Smith 16th, Kravtsov 23rd
It appears like the Rangers’ original pick in this slot will be traded, but Ty Smith has been a quality top-four defenseman. His numbers are down this year and he got a late start to the season due to injury, but he showed he was ready for the big time as a rookie. The maturity in his game and the dynamic puck-moving capabilities he possesses are enough to suggest he can be a long-term top four in the NHL.
10. Edmonton Oilers
2018 Re-Draft Selection: Evan Bouchard
Who was taken in 2018: Evan Bouchard
Peters 2018 Rank: Bouchard 9th
I have liked Bouchard as a player since his draft season, but this has been the year where it’s becoming more and more evident that he has true top-four upside. He’s producing and playing big minutes while helping on the power play. Bouchard is a highly-intelligent player with great puck-moving skills, but I’ve always been nervous about his pace of play. It turns out that he thinks the game fast enough to not have to play it at a high speed and let his teammates do that for him.
11. New York Islanders
2018 Re-Draft Selection: Oliver Wahlstrom
Who was taken in 2018: Oliver Wahlstrom
Peters 2018 Rank: Wahlstrom 6th
Wahlstrom’s offense has stalled lately, but he has shown flashes of top-six upside. He has 17 career goals in 70 games, but has one of the elite shots among young players. As he gains experience and gets a better sense of what it takes to score consistently at the NHL level, I think the goals will come and I still see a future 30-goal season in his future.
12. New York Islanders
2018 Re-Draft Selection: Noah Dobson
Who was taken in 2018: Noah Dobson
Peters 2018 Rank: Dobson 10th
I am a big believer in Dobson even as the Islanders have slow-played his development. I think he’s still one of the better defenders in this group and think there’s still a ton of ceiling for him to reach. When all is said and done, I believe Dobson will be part of New York’s top four on a consistent basis and he’ll provide some solid two-way value.
13. Dallas Stars
2018 Re-Draft Selection: Adam Boqvist
Who was taken in 2018: Ty Dellandrea
Peters 2018 Ranks: Boqvist 7th, Dellandrea 26th
I think the expectation for Boqvist’s offensive game has been a bit higher than he’s shown at the NHL level, but you see glimpses of his high-end skill and creativity. Already traded away by the Blackhawks, he is now a big part of the future of the Blue Jackets’ D corps. In the re-draft, I still view him as a top-15 pick, but not nearly with the same confidence.
14. Philadelphia Flyers
2018 Re-Draft Selection: Nils Lundkvist
Who was taken in 2018: Joel Farabee
Peters 2018 Ranks: Lundqvist 29th, Farabee 13th
Currently in his first season in North America, there have been growing pains, but I think Lundkvist’s body of work suggests a long NHL career ahead of him. He’s been one of the most productive young defensemen the SHL has ever seen and now is finding his way as an NHLer. Rangers fans should be patient yet with this exciting young talent.
15. Florida Panthers
2018 Re-Draft Selection: Yegor Sharangovich
Who was taken in 2018: (Girgori Denisenko)
Peters 2018 Ranks: Sharangovich NR, Denisenko 12th
And now we have our first player off the board from outside the first round. Yegor Sharangovich was a fifth-round choice, 141st overall, but is eighth overall in scoring for this draft class in his career. He has proven to be a higher-end contributor among his draft peers, though is about two years older than most of the players. Still, Sharangovich has been a revelation and a great fit for the Devils, earning him a much loftier draft position in our re-draft.
16. Colorado Avalanche
2018 Re-Draft Selection: Isac Lundestrom
Who was taken in 2018: Martin Kaut
Peters 2018 Ranks: Lundestrom 18th, Kaut 25th
As we get to this stage of the re-draft, there’s a lot of splitting hairs. There isn’t a ton separating these players and there are a heck of a lot more who still are developing. Lundestrom has taken one of the biggest steps of any player from his draft class this season. He’s already producing at career-best numbers in terms of his counting stats and is showing a much better NHL skillset with two-way capabilities.
17. New Jersey Devils
2018 Re-Draft Selection: Vitali Kravtsov
Who was taken in 2018: Ty Smith
Peters 2018 Ranks: Kravtsov 23rd, Smith 16th
Kravtsov is as skilled as anyone in this class, but he still hasn’t proven he can translate his KHL success to North America. He’s back in Russia playing things out as he awaits a potential trade from the Rangers. He’s still got a lot of NHL attributes that I think will help him have success, but his stock will drop until he can prove it.
18. Columbus Blue Jackets
2018-Re-Draft Selection: Rasmus Sandin
Who was taken in 2018: Liam Foudy
Peters 2018 Ranks: Sandin 20th, Foudy 32nd
Sandin is having his best pro season and making good on his first-round selection, so much so that I have him higher in the redraft. Quality two-way defensemen are hard to uncover in a draft, but when you can get one and develop them, you’ve got a guy that is going to help your lineup.
19. Philadelphia Flyers
2018 Re-Draft Selection: Ty Dellandrea
Who was taken in 2018: Jay O’Brien
Peters 2018 Ranks: Dellandrea 26th, O’Brien 74th
Dellandrea has been up and down, but I think the versatility he’s shown as a pro is pretty solid. He’s started this season in the AHL, but that doesn’t bother me much considering his upside yet. He’s not a flashy player, but he’s effective and should find himself a role in Dallas’s middle six for the long term, but he slips in the re-draft.
20. Los Angeles Kings
2018 Re-Draft Selection: Barrett Hayton
Who was taken in 2018: Rasmus Kupari
Peters 2018 Ranks: Hayton 14th, Kupari 15th
I didn’t think Hayton was a great pick in the top five, but I did not expect him to drop this far on the redraft. I think he’s just struggled to find his game as a pro and that has resulted in his being in the AHL for a good chunk. The Coyotes rushed him, in my opinion, and that’s set him back quite a bit. I wonder if he has a chance to regain form because there is no doubt he has the skill and the sense to make it happen, but he may need a re-set.
21. San Jose Sharks – Alexander Romanov (Ryan Merkley)
Peters 2018 Ranks: Romanov NR, Merkley 41st
22. New York Rangers – Kirill Marchenko (K’Andre Miller)
Peters 2018 Ranks: Marchenko 37th, Miller 17th
23. Anaheim Ducks – Grigori Denisenko (Isac Lundestrom)
Peters 2018 Ranks: Denisenko 12th, Lundestrom 18th
24. Minnesota Wild – Rasmus Kupari (Filip Johansson)
Peters 2018 Ranks: Kupari 15th, Johansson NR
25. St. Louis Blues – Scott Perunovich (Dominik Bokk)
Peters 2018 Ranks: Perunovich 43rd, Bokk 28th
26. Ottawa Senators – Calen Addison (Jacob Bernard-Docker)
Peters 2018 Ranks: Addison 42nd, Bernard-Docker 44th
27. Chicago Blackhawks – Martin Fehervary (Nicolas Beaudin)
Peters 2018 Ranks: Fehervary 73rd, Nicolas Beaudin 67th
28. New York Rangers – Joe Veleno (Nils Lundqvist)
Peters 2018 Ranks: Veleno 11th, Lundqvist 29th
29. Tronto Maple Leafs – Liam Foudy (Rasmus Sandin)
Peters 2018 Ranks: Foudy 32nd, Sandin 20th
30. Detroit Red Wings – Ivan Morozov (Joseph Veleno)
Peters 2018 Ranks: Morozov 65th, Veleno 11th
31. Washington Capitals – Philipp Kurashev (Alexander Alexeyev)
Peters 2018 Ranks: Kurashev 55th, Alexeyev 39th