2020 NHL UFA Top 75: Johan Larsson, Tomas Nosek, Melker Karlsson, Jimmy Vesey and Ron Hainsey

Welcome to the DailyFaceoff UFA preview. Over the next 15 days, I’ll be profiling the top 30 players in this years UFA class, as listed by TSN. Contract information is from our friends at Puckpedia. Full UFA list via puckpedia here. Analytics provided by hockeyviz.com and naturalstattrick.com. Contract projections are done by evolving-hockey.com with the presumption contracts are signed between Aug. – Oct. 11. 

Today, we’re looking at the 70th ranked @Johan Larsson, 69th ranked @Tomas Nosek, 68th ranked @Melker Karlsson, 67th ranked @Jimmy Vesey and the 66th ranked @Ron Hainsey.

@Johan Larsson

Despite being drafted in the second round of the 2010 draft, Johan Larsson never got a foothold in the Minnesota Wild franchise that took him. Instead, after playing one game for them in 2012-13, he was dealt to the Buffalo Sabres.

There Larsson has flourished into an extremely effective middle-six forward. His point production isn’t out of this world scoring 38 goals and 97 points in 392 games, but Larsson is about as effective as can be. This past campaign he offered an offensive zone impact four percent above league average while contributing defence at an eight percent rate higher than league average. Those numbers are very impressive.

His underlying numbers at 5v5 are strong, too. He posted a 50.73 CF%, an xG% of 51.11 and a goals for rate of 54.55 percent.

He will be a solid addition to nearly any team looking to improve their forward corps.

Contract projection: One year, $982.3k.

@Tomas Nosek

Nosek got his NHL break in thanks to the Vegas Golden Knights, who selected him from Detroit in the expansion draft. There, Noske has gotten his first true NHL chance. He’s scored around 15 points in each of the last three seasons totalling 47 points in 202 games.

This past season Nosek scored eight goals and 15 points in 67 games with a 5v5 CF% of 52.23, a 5v5 xG% of 54.73 and a 5v5 goals for rate of 46 percent. His isolated impacts are solid, too. Offensively he contributes at a one percent rate higher than league average and defence at a four percent rate higher than league average.

Nosek will serve as a useful bottom-six option for whoever signs him.

Contract projection: One year, $799.6k.

@Melker Karlsson

Now in his sixth NHL season playing for the San Jose Sharks, Karlsson is about as average as can be. Truth be told, there’s an argument to be made he isn’t a very good NHL player.

In 396 games he’s scored 112 points, but has only totalled 28 points over 140 games in the last two seasons. He has an offensive impact 12 percent worse than league average and defensively, he contributes at a two percent rate worse than league average.

And his underlying numbers aren’t great either. At 5v5 this year he posted a 45.57 CF%, an xG% of 44.40 and a goals for rate of 43.90 percent playing as a third-liner.

I wouldn’t want to sign Melker Karlsson to my NHL team.

Contract projection: One year, $656k.

@Jimmy Vesey

Vesey has been a hot topic since he broke into the NHL in 2016. He was drafted in the third round of the 2012 draft by Nashville, but refused to sign after finishing his NCAA tenure. He was highly touted, and has grown into a solid NHLer.

This past year was his first with the Buffalo Sabres after playing for the New York Rangers, who acquired him from the Predators.

Vesey scored nine goals and 20 points with the Sabres last year and has totalled 59 goals and 110 points in 304 NHL games. Offensively he’s provided at a six percent rate higher than league average this past season while defensively he gave a one percent rate worse than league average.

He posted a solid 5v5 GF% of 56.90, but a 49.45 CF5 and an xG% of 48.59.

Contract projection: One year, $1.036-million.

@Ron Hainsey

Ron Hainsey is still in the NHL? That’s a surprise. It’s incredible the length some players are able to play and at 39 years old, Hainsey is still an effective NHL defender.

His boxcars aren’t great scoring one goal and 12 points in 64 games this year, but he’s about as effective as you want him to be. At 5v5, he posted a CF% of 47.25, an xG% of 47.74 and a goals for rate of 52.38 percent.

While he doesn’t contribute much on offence (seven percent below league average), he gives solid value providing defence at a one percent rate higher than league average.

An undying veteran, a guy like Hainsey can add a lot to a room. He’s about as perfect as can be for an aging veteran defenceman.

Contract projection: One year, $2.017-million.