2021 Projected Lineups: Pittsburgh Penguins

Brock Seguin
Brock Seguin(@Brock_Seguin)
2021 Projected Lineups: Pittsburgh Penguins

In 2020, the @Pittsburgh Penguins lost in the “qualifying round,” which marked the first time since they missed the playoffs since 2006.

The Penguins are three years removed from winning the Stanley Cup and are entering the 16th year of @Sidney Crosby’s career. With Crosby, @Evgeni Malkin and @Kris Letang all inching towards their mid-30s, Pittsburgh’s Championship window seems to be getting narrower and narrower each season.

In typical Jim Rutherford fashion, the Penguins GM was busy this offseason. He made four notable trades:

To PIT:Traded Away:
– Kasperi Kapanen (RW)

– Jesper Lindgren (D)

– Pontus Aberg (LW)

– 2020 1st Rd. Pick

– Filip Hallander (C)

– Evan Rodrigues (RW)

– David Warsofsky (D)

– 2021 conditional 7th Rd. Pick– Nick Bjugstad
– Mike Matheson (D)

– Colton Sceviour (RW)

– Patric Hornqvist (RW)
– 2020 2nd Rd. Pick

– Jonathan Gruden (C)

– Matt Murray (G)

All those moves allow the Penguins to come into the 2021 season ≈1.32 million under the cap. Pittsburgh appears all in for a few more Stanley Cup runs over the next few seasons because they have one of the worst prospect pools in the NHL and as of now they don’t have a first, third, fourth or sixth-round pick in the upcoming draft. That’s nothing new for Rutherford, especially when he’s trying to milk another Championship out of an ageing but outstanding core.

Projected Forward Lines

Now that training camps are underway, it’s a little easier to figure out what the lines might look like come January 13th. The Penguins in particular seem to have concrete lines already.

They went out and got @Kasperi Kapanen to play with Crosby and @Jake Guentzel. Kapanen is expected to miss all of training camp due to immigration issues and may even miss the first game of the season. However, he’ll still be with Crosby and Guentzel to start the season. It’s a highly sought-after spot in fantasy drafts but I worry about having no practice time and getting off to a slow start in a shortened season.

Guentzel missed a good portion of the 2020 season but PIT1 was outstanding when he was in the lineup. Guentzel scored 20 goals in just 39 games and didn’t even have a spike in shooting percentage. Guentzel continues to be overlooked in the fantasy space and should be of great value on draft day. If he can score 20 in 39 on the heels of a 40-goal campaign, he might be able to score 30 in 56 in 2021. In most drafts, gone are the days where you need to spend a top-5 pick to get Crosby but he’s still capable of producing at that level. Along with @Dominik Simon and Guentzel, PIT1 averaged 3.26 GoalsFor/60 last year and get a big bump in talent with Kapanen replacing Simon. Crosby had 47 points (16G / 31A) in 41 games last year, which is low for him, but he suffered through an 8.4 On-Ice SH% season when his career average is 10.5. A healthy Guentzel and the addition of Kapanen should make this one of the better lines in the NHL and Crosby is a surefire top-10 pick with a ton of bounce-back upside.

Upon coming over from Minnesota, @Jason Zucker spent most of his time on Crosby’s wing but will play with Malkin in the 2021 season. Zucker proved to be a very good addition last year, scoring six goals with six assists (12 points) in 15 games with the Penguins. He’s never been afraid to shoot the puck, often eclipsing 200 shots in a full season, and should be someone who approaches 20 goals while playing with Malkin. On the other side, Rust is a guy who exploded for 56 points (27G / 29A) in 55 games last season. While he’s unlikely to be a point-per-game player this season, he’s someone going at the end of drafts that should have an outstanding season. He plays massive minutes and the departure of Hornqvist means he should see additional time on the top power-play unit this season. His 17.9 SH% and 12.5 On-Ice SH% are sure to regress but he’s tied to Malkin’s hip and is another player who should have 15-to-20 goals and 20-plus assists. As for Malkin himself, very few players put up numbers like he does, but his overall totals don’t jump out because he often only plays about 75 percent of the games. He is fourth in the NHL in points-per-game (1.20) over the last four seasons, trailing only @Connor McDavid, @Nikita Kucherov and @Brad Marchand. He’s a player that can be massive draft day value in the third-round (current ADP: 28.6) but you have to know that there will be games where he won’t be there.

The third line will look different this season, with @Mark Jankowski coming over from Calgary. The former first-round pick had 17 and 14 goals in his first two NHL seasons but was a total flop in 2020. Both he and @Jared McCann have had a tough time living up to the first-round pick expectations but they both have enough offensive game to score a combined 30 goals in a full season. The issue with PIT3 is they will probably see less ice time than the average third line because the Penguins’ fourth-line is so good and head coach Mike Sullivan loves to get them out there.

@Teddy Bluger and @Brandon Tanev will be available on the fourth line to begin the season but @Zach Aston-Reese is missing. Aston-Reese underwent shoulder surgery in August and is expected to miss the first month of the season. This trio provides almost nothing in terms of offence (1.41 GF/60) but they give up nothing. Of the 31 lines who played at least 300 5v5 TOI together last season, PIT4 ranked first in GoalsAgainst/60 (1.41). Sullivan loves using in a shutdown role and you can see why. With Crosby taking on a top-6 line and often winning and PIT4 shutting down the other scoring line, that leaves Malkin with a gravy matchup to exploit.

Projected Defensive Pairings

From a hockey perspective, Letang is probably very pleased that @Jack Johnson is no longer in Pittsburgh. The two spent just over 530 5v5 TOI together last season and Johnson absolutely dragged him down. Letang’s CorsiFor% soared from 45.98 to 57.23 and his GF% from 40.82 to 56.92 when he got away from Johnson. That’s some pretty damning evidence against Johnson. He spent a lot of time with Johnson because @Brian Dumoulin was limited to just 28 games, but when he was healthy the Dumoulin-Letang pair was solid, at least offensively. From a defensive point of view, they were almost as bad as Johnson-Letang. There were 100 pairings that played Min.300 5v5 TOI together in 2020 and Johnson-Letang ranked 98th in GA/60 (3.38) and Dumoulin-Letang was 96th (3.36). On a positive note, they’re second in GF/60 (4.15) which made for a healthy 55.3 GF%, which was 37th. They definitely won’t be the shutdown pair, but as a fantasy owner, you have to love the amount of offence that is generated when Letang is on the ice.

The second pair of @Marcus Pettersson and @John Marino is back after a surprising breakout season in 2020. Marino just recently signed a six-year contract extension and the Penguins desperately need this young pairing to be great again this season. This pairing is the polar opposite of what Letang was last season, ranking 79th/100 in GF/60 (2.07) but 16th in GA/60 (1.78). These two play the toughest minutes on the team and still graded out as one of the better defensive pairings in the league. As a result, both have limited fantasy upside but they should see some power-play time which could make them DFS punts on most nights.

Now, this third pairing is sure to draw some attention. @Mike Matheson was a part of the worst defensive pairing in the league last year with him and @Anton Stralman giving up 4.75 GA/60 and pairing him wth @Cody Ceci could be a disaster. Ceci’s numbers from a season ago weren’t terrible but playing with @Morgan Rielly covered up a lot of the problems. When he was paired with lesser defensive players, like a @Tyson Barrie for example, the numbers were awful. A Matheson-Ceci pairing looks like a disaster on paper but it doesn’t seem like Sullivan has many choices.

Advanced Stats via MoneyPuck.com and HockeyReference.com 

Salary Cap Figures via PuckPedia.com 

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