2022 Fantasy Hockey: Too Early Draft Values

With the NFL season set to start on Thursday, the Fantasy Football Drafts are winding down and the Fantasy Hockey Drafts will ramp up with NHL training camp quickly approaching.

Some Fantasy Hockey enthusiasts have already started drafting or doing mocks, so the super early ADPs (Average Draft Positions) are available on Yahoo! It is probably too early to draw any hard conclusions from them but more often than not they don’t change drastically over the month of September.

I took a look at all of the ADPs and cross-referenced them with my preliminary rankings to find where the largest disparities are at each position. Below you will find a list of players and their ADP’s and why I think they should be going much earlier.

I will revisit Yahoo’s ADP’s later in the month and release a new version of this list.

Centres

Evgeni Malkin – PIT – C (ADP: 91.0)

You’ll notice a trend while reading through this post, most of the names are veteran players. Maybe fantasy owners are souring on them as they age but from a statistical standpoint, it would be unwise to avoid them.

In Malkin’s case, he’s probably dropping because of injury concerns. He is expected to miss the start of the season after undergoing knee surgery. He missed 41.1 percent of the games in 2021 and has only played 75.4 percent of games in the last three seasons. Injuries have always been an issue for Malkin but when he’s in the lineup he is still exceptionally productive. Since 2019, he is tied for 13th in the NHL in points-per-game, averaging 1.12 Pts/gm and scoring at 28.4 goals and 63.1 assists per-82 game pace.

We know he won’t play in all 82 games this season but it shows that he can still play at a high level even at age-35. With an ADP of a mid-7th rounder, you can get a ton of value with Malkin. Playing at Fantasy Hockey’s deepest position will allow you to easily replace him when he inevitably lands on your IR. However, his production will be unmatched at that point in the draft.

Sean Couturier – PHI – C (ADP: 145.9)

It took Couturier a long time to get going in the NHL but he has developed into one of the best two-way centres in the world and his offensive game has really taken off in the last four years. Few forwards see as much ice-time as Couturier and his dominance covers a wide array of fantasy categories.

Couturier isn’t going to explode for a 95-point season but he’s almost always in the lineup (has played in 95.5 percent of games since 2018) and has averaged 30.9 goals, 44.0 assists, 225 shots and 16 power-play points per-82 games over the last four seasons. He should be considered a solid No.2 fantasy centre, who is being drafted as a No.3. His ADP of the 12th round allows you to focus on filling your lineup with the thinner positions (wingers + goalies) in the early rounds and stealing him late as your No.2 centre.

Wingers

Taylor Hall – BOS – LW (ADP: 94.8)

Hall burned a lot of Fantasy owners last year, scoring just two goals in 37 games with the Sabres. However, after he was traded to the Bruins, the old Taylor Hall re-emerged. He registered 14 points (8G / 6A) in 16 games and found a home on their second line. Seeing David Krejci leave for the Czech Republic hurts Hall’s outlook for 2022 but not enough for him to be the 20th LW off of the board.

He’s done a lot with a limited surrounding cast before, so whether it’s Charlie Coyle or Erik Haula centring that second line, he should be a safe No.2 LW. Playing on the top power-play unit with David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron should also help him maintain that near point-per-game pace he was on at the end of last season.

Patrik Laine – WPG – RW (ADP: 132.9)

The 2021 season was a complete disaster for Laine and that will make him a bargain on draft day. Unsurprisingly, his game did not mesh well with Blue Jackets head coach John Tortorella and that led to Laine getting benched at times and scoring just 10 goals with 11 assists (21 points) in 45 games.

Tortorella and the Blue Jackets parted ways this offseason and assistant coach Brad Larsen was promoted. When Larsen was the head coach of the Springfield Falcons (AHL) from 2013-to-2014, they were among the highest-scoring teams in the league. The change in the philosophy behind the bench should make Columbus a more offensive team and makes Laine a prime bounce-back candidate.

With Laine, it’s easy to forget that he is only 23-years-old after breaking into the NHL as an 18-year-old in 2017. After a couple of so-so seasons, it’s also easy to forget that he scored 44 goals in 2018. Few players in the world can score as Laine can, so letting him fall to the 11th round is completely foolish. He is low-end RW1/high-end RW2 and is being drafted as a low-end RW2/high-end RW3.

Kevin Fiala – MIN – RW (ADP: 139.3)

During his first two seasons in Minnesota, Fiala ranked 21st in Goals/60 and 22nd in Points/60, yet he’s going in the middle of the 11th round on average. Fiala set a new career-high in ATOI (16:54) last year and the Wild didn’t do much in the offseason that will threaten his usage in 2021-22.

Fiala has never met a shot he doesn’t like, ranking 11th in Shots/60 and firing at a 242 SOG per-82 game pace. In the back half of the draft, it will be next to impossible to find a player with as much upside as Fiala. He’s being drafted as No.3 RW but could finish the season as a low-end No1/high-end No.2 at the position.

Teuvo Teravainen – CAR – RW (139.4)

It’s funny how much can change in one year. At the start of last season, I had Teravainen listed as one of my busts because his draft stock was so inflated. Now, 10 months later the opposite is true. Injuries destroyed his 2021 campaign, limiting him to just 21 games, but it will make him a huge steal in 2022. He plays almost exclusively on the top line with Sebastian Aho and often times Andrei Svechnikov, a trio that is one of the most dangerous in the NHL. Last year, they were seventh in GoalsFor/60 and 16th in ExpectedGoalsFor/60 per MoneyPuck.com.

Teravainen is being drafted in the middle of the 11th round while Aho is going in the middle of the second and Svechnikov in the middle of the third. If you want to continue to play the extrapolation game, he has averaged 20 goals and 54 assists (74 points) per 82 games in the last three years combined. That’s not too far behind Aho’s 82-point pace (37G / 45A) over the same time and you can get him nine rounds later at the moment.

Dominik Kubalik – CHI – LW (ADP:147.4)

Kubalik was outstanding in his rookie season, scoring 30 goals with 16 assists (46 points) but his goal production dell off in 2020-21. Some of that can be attributed to expected Shooting Percentage regression but also losing Jonathan Toews for the season really hurt Kubalik. He played almost exclusively with Toews in 2019-20 but the Blackhawks had a tough time finding him a permanent spot last year. Kubalik’s GF% drops from 52.86 to 46.15 without Toews, so the captain’s return should help Kubalik’s case for a bounce-back season.

Kubalik has yet to play in an 82-game season but his shot volume to this point suggests he should top 200 shots in 2021-22, making a return to 30 goals entirely possible. There’s no reason to reach for Kubalik but you can pick up 30-goal upside in the last couple of rounds of drafts right now.

Defensemen

Kris Letang – PIT – D (ADP: 76.7)

I expect Letang’s ADP to rise as the month progresses but as of right now, he’s a tremendous value pick. Entering his age-34 season, Letang is sixth among defensemen in points (145) and fourth in points-per-game (0.80) over the last three seasons. He still plays a ton of minutes on a nightly basis, is unchallenged for his spot on PP1 and is one of the best point-producing defensemen in the NHL. He’s currently being drafted as the No.16 defenseman (7th round ADP) and has undeniable top-5 defenseman upside if he doesn’t miss too much time with injuries.

Zach Werenski – CBJ – D (ADP: 113.1)

Werenski is one of the NHL’s premier goal-scoring defensemen, yet he’s inexplicably being drafted in the 10th round right now. Despite missing 21 games last year, he still ranks second among defensemen in goals over the last four seasons. With Seth Jones and David Savard both no longer in Columbus, Werenski will be relied upon to eat huge minutes in 2021-22.

Like Laine, Werenski should benefit from the coaching change as well with more offence to go around. He is basically a lock for double-digit goals and 25-plus assists, making him a safe No.2 defenseman with clear No.1 upside.

Brent Burns – SJS – D (ADP: 128.5)

It has been a quick fall from grace for Brent Burns, who is just three years removed from an 83-point campaign. His shot value cratered in 2020-21 but he still ranked ninth among defensemen in shots (138). The Sharks and Burns are both trending in the wrong direction but there’s no reason for him to be the 32nd defenseman off of the board in the 10th/11th round. It seems like a massive overreaction for a defenseman who hasn’t missed a game in seven years and even in a down year was on-pace for 10.3 goals, 32.2 assists (42.5 points) and 202.1 shots. The biggest culprit for Burns’ struggles last year was his lack of power-play production. The Sharks still have enough talent to have an average power-play in 2021-22 and allow Burns to return No.2 defenseman type numbers at No.3 value.

Goalies

Jordan Binnington – STL – G (ADP: 87.2)

There are few goalies left in the NHL who could push for 55-60 starts and Binnington is one of them. With only Ville Husso behind, he has very little competition for starts and should be going much earlier than he is. Binnington is currently the 18th goalie off of the board, yet we have him projected to be third in Games Started, fifth in wins and 24th in SV%.

His game has regressed since his breakout rookie campaign, so he likely won’t appear in the top-10 of GAA or SV% this year but his opportunity is undeniable. Offensively, the Blues aren’t great but they are a solid defensive squad, so Binnington should be able to get to 30 wins. He’s being drafted as a low-end No.2 but is definitely a No.1 fantasy netminder.

Carter Hart – PHI – G (ADP:135.8)

After winning 40 of his first 70 starts while posting a .915 SV% to start his career, Hart struggled mightily in 2020-21. He had a 3.67 GAA and .877 SV% but still has a firm grasp on the starting gig in Philadelphia with only Martin Jones behind him.

The Flyers were above-average defensively last year and made some big moves this offseason that should help them be a top-10 defensive team. That should help Hart’s case for a bounce-back season but Fantasy owners are clearly terrified of him. At age-23 and on a good team, Hart could return No.1 fantasy goalie numbers in the 12th round, currently being drafted as the 26th goalie off of the board.

Jacob Markstrom – CGY – G (ADP: 140.6)

Like Binnington and Hart, Markstrom is one of the few workhorses remaining in the NHL, yet he’s falling incredibly deep into drafts. In his first season with the Flames, Markstrom started 43 games, which was second-most in the NHL. With Daniel Vladar being brought over from Boston to be his backup, there’s no reason to expect him to start any less than 55 games.

Last year, the Flames were fourth in ExpectedGoalsAgainst/60 (1.93), giving up the sixth-fewest Scoring Chances Against and seventh-fewest High-Danger Chances. With a strong team in-front of him and a large share of the starts, Markstrom is another goalie who could rank among the top-12 but is going in the 12th round, as the 30th goalie to get drafted.