Breaking Down the Hurricanes/Flames Trade
Day one of the NHL Draft was quiet, but the Carolina Hurricanes and Calgary Flames made a big splash on day two.
The Hurricanes traded Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm to the Flames for Dougie Hamilton, Micheal Ferland and prospect Adam Fox.
The Hurricanes were having a difficult time signing restricted free agent Lindholm and were still working on a new contract with Hanifin. Rather than continuing to work on those deals, Carolina GM Don Waddell elected to trade for Hamilton, who is signed for three more seasons at $5.75 million and Ferland who is under contract for one more season with a $1.75M cap-hit.
The Flames aren’t expected to have any difficulties signing Lindholm or Hanifin. Matt Cane from HockeyGraphs projected all of this summer’s free agents contracts and so far they have been very accurate.
Predicted contracts for Lindholm and Hanfin:
- – Lindholm | 5 years, $4.978M AAV ($24.89M)
- – Hanifin | 2 years, $2.336M AAV ($4.672M)
Who Won The Trade?
To Carolina:
Not only does Hamilton and Ferland grade out better than Hanifin and Lindholm at this point, but they also got a former third-round pick in Fox. The Hurricanes still need to sign the 20-year-old defenseman, but Fox has picked up 68 points (12G / 56A) in just 64 games in his first two years at Harvard University.
Hanifin projects to improve quite a bit over the next few seasons, but Hamilton is already one of the best defenseman in the NHL. During his three seasons in Calgary, Hamilton was tied for sixth among defensemen in goals (42) and 17th in points (137). Over the last two seasons, Hamilton has a 56.3 CorsiFor% and has posted a relative Corsi of +6.9 (2017) and +6.7 (2018).
Ferland is just 26-years-old and is coming off of his best season as a pro, having scored 21 goals with 20 assists (41 points) in 77 games. Ferland played the majority of his minutes with Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan but struggled without them. The trio had a 53.77 CF% and 61.9 goals-for% in 704:39 together at 5v5, but Ferland saw that drop to a 48.76 CF% and 31.25 GF% away from Gaudreau and Monahan. If he plays with some of the Hurricanes’ skilled guy like Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen, he could be successful. If he falls down the depth chart, he remains a useful, physical force but his offensive numbers will drop off dramatically.
To Calgary:
The real winner of this trade largely hinges on the strides that Hanifin makes over the next couple of years. The 21-year-old had his best season in 2018, scoring 10 goals with 22 assists (32 points) in 79 games. While playing on the best possession team in hockey, Hanifin carried an impressive +2.8 relative Corsi. It remains to be seen how the Flames’ new depth chart will shake out, but Calgary is loaded on the left-side now with Hanifin, Mark Giordano and T.J. Brodie.
Lindholm, 23, was the fifth overall pick in 2013 but has been relatively unspectacular during his five-year career. Lindholm has averaged 14 goals and 28 assists (42 points) over the last four seasons and where he lands in the Flames’ line combos will determine how big of a fantasy asset he is in 2019.
The way too early 2019 Projected Lines
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