Computer Picks: 17/03/2010—Bringing Out the Broom

Updated: March 17, 2010 at 6:08 am by Jeff Tay

Many who read this section on occasion can probably figure out that I don’t write here on Dailyfaceoff.com for a living (there’s not nearly enough ad revenue). Thus, it should be no surprise that I do have other reasons for continuing to do this, and as I may have suggested in past editions, one of those key reasons is actually to improve on my own sports betting methods and strategies. This personal motivating factor alone has already accounted for all of the various changes that have taken place over the short lifespan of this section, as well as a great number of self-indulgent opening paragraphs (which I often use as ‘notes to self’), and also my conspicuous pre-Olympic mental meltdown (when I completely snapped after taking a few rough beats).

 As hopelessly optimistic as it may appear though, I continue to believe that this whole operation is headed in a positive direction, and in order to keep this self-proclaimed “positive momentum” going, I have decided to work on some even further additions/changes to enhance this section, which are a reflection of my constantly-evolving hockey betting strategy ( a work in progress).  

So, what are these new additions to come?

For starters, how about finally paying some attention to special teams? It has taken me almost the entirety of this season for me to finally realize just how important the PP and the PK are. Extremely important! While special teams may not necessarily determine which team wins and which team loses, they certainly weigh heavily into the result, especially when you look at it this way: if you can go 1 for 6 on the PP and hold your opponent to 0 for 6 on the PK, you’ve just been spotted a virtual 1-goal advantage! In essence, you’re almost getting a team that has this advantage at +1.0 goals with a moneyline bet.

Exhibit A: Pittsburgh has scored just 3 goals total in 5 games against New Jersey this season, and has gone 0 for 18 on the PP in this series. New Jersey has gone 3 for 16 on the PP in this series (18.8%). Case solved! With Malkin out, take the Devils to sweep the Pens this season.

Other area that I want to start paying attention to: shots on goal. It may not be as important as special teams, but I personally prefer not to bet on teams that allow 35+ SOG on a regular basis and rely on their goalies to ‘steal’ games for them.

Exhibit B: Colorado has won all 4 games against Calgary so far this season, but they have allowed a whopping 90 shots on goal against in their last 2 games combined, and have been outshot in 9 of their last 10 contests by an average margin of 8 shots per game. Calgary, meanwhile, outshot both Vancouver and Detroit in their last 2 road games. Watch out if you’re thinking of betting on Colorado here, or be prepared to rely very heavily on Craig Anderson to cash another ticket.

The bottom line is that there will be new features coming soon to this section (PP/PK charts and such). In case you’re wondering though, “seamlessly” incorporating the picks into the opening paragraphs probably won’t be one of them. Stay tuned.

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