Daily Fantasy Hockey Playoff Preview: 04/12/18

Updated: April 12, 2018 at 4:45 pm by Brock Seguin

Each day of the NHL Playoffs, Dylan and Brock will be collaborating on a full preview of that night’s playoff action. Dylan will break down each game from a Daily Fantasy Hockey perspective, giving you some of his favourite targets. Brock will provide his Daily Fantasy Notebook after morning skates, including Projected Lineups, Injury Updates, Goalie Rankings and DFS Value Plays. Enjoy playoff hockey and the best time of the year!


By: Dylan Berthiaume

 

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New Jersey Devils

Despite their head to head record this season tilting 3-0 in the Devils’ favour, the Lightning head into the series as one of the heavier first-round favourites. Their balance and depth upfront should trump the top-heavy Devils who have had trouble getting reliable production from anyone not named Taylor Hall. You can expect Tampa Bay 1 to be the chalk tonight and for good reason. With the last change at his disposal Jon Cooper will likely opt to match his second line against Hall and company, freeing up his top line of Steven Stamkos, J.T. Miller, and Nikita Kucherov to attack the second line of the Devils. Though their defensive numbers have been better in a small sample size alongside Patrick Maroon, Paval Zacha and Miles Wood average over 30 scoring chances against per 60. That’s more than enough opportunities for Tampa Bay 1 to do a lot of damage against the sub-par goaltending of the Devils.

Hall, Nico Hischier, and Kyle Palmieri are going to have to carry the Devils on their back if they want to have a fighting chance in this series. And while their usage makes them a pretty attractive play for their price, I would hold off on stacking them until the series heads back to New Jersey where they have more control over the matchups. Stick to using Hall as a one-off in cash games until then.

Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

While the Bruins have done a better job of complementing their dynamic top line than in years past, this is still a team that cannot rely on their second and third lines to handle elite offensive pressure. This makes the Leafs and Bruins’ series as matchup-dependent as any in the first round, and you’ll want to construct your lineups accordingly. If you’re planning on stacking the Leafs, it’s all about dodging the Bergeron line as much as possible. That means fading Auston Matthews and William Nylander for the first two games of the series in favour of Mitch Marner and Nazem Kadri, and vice versa for games three and four when the series heads back to Toronto.

Following the same train of thought for Boston 1, they make for a solid target while in Boston as they should have the edge at 5v5 against the Matthews line, but you should consider fading them when the series heads back to Toronto and Mike Babcock opts to match the Kadri line against them, which projects to be more of a wash.  Keep in mind that the Leafs’ third line should avoid Boston 1 for the entirety of this series, making them a very sneaky play at just $12,600 for the full stack. Their production could very well be the deciding factor in this series, and don’t forget that Tyler Bozak and James van Reimsdyk are integral pieces of the Leafs’ top powerplay unit too.

Washington Capitals vs. Columbus Blue Jackets

John Tortorella is one of the few coaches in the league who could not care less about using the advantage of last change. Torts despises line matching so that pretty much throws any 5v5 forecasting out the window any time this series heads back to ‘Lumbus. You’ll want to focus more on powerplay stacks for games 3 and 4, but for tonight’s contest we can expect to see top line against top line at 5v5. That means we’ll see the likes of Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov going head to head against the Blue Jackets’ dominant trio of Artemi Panarin, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Cam Atkinson. Columbus 1 has been a nightmare to matchup against at 5v5 this year, averaging an elite 38 scoring chances per 60 while still posting above average defensive rates. The matchup leans in their favour and they should make for a great stacking target for the duration of this series.

While the 5v5 matchup may not be in his favour, it’s no secret that Alex Ovechkin does the bulk of his damage on the powerplay, and at just 76.2% the Blue Jackets’ penalty killers were a bottom-five unit this year. Ovechkin’s shot is a gamebreaker with the man advantage; the sky is the limit for his production when he sees an excess amount of powerplay opportunities against a lackluster unit. It should go without saying but don’t overlook Ovechkin in this series, he’s proven time and time again he doesn’t need a cushy matchup at 5v5 to put up some crooked numbers.

Nashville Predators vs. Colorado Avalanche

It’s always tempting to build around Colorado 1 on a night where they project to be low-owned, but I think we can safely fade Nathan Mackinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and Mikko Rantanen for the first two games of this series. The Predators are full of defensively-responsible forwards and as long as Peter Laviolette is able to get one of his top two defensive pairs on the ice Colorado 1 will be hard-pressed to create much offense. It’s at home for games 3 and 4 where we’ll be looking at targeting Mackinnon, who has a ridiculous 67 points in 39 homes games this season, but we’ll talk more about his absurd splits when the time comes.

Still, it would be wise to at least respect Colorado 1 enough to not stack the Predators’ top line while their matched up against them, which should be the case for the first couple games of the series. You can get a lot more value out of the Preds’ second line of Kevin Fiala, Kyle Turris, and Craig Smith. Believe it or not, the three of them have been as good as any line in the league this year at 5v5, posting a 58.46 CF% and averaging 36 scoring chances per 60. They should run over the depth, or the lack thereof, of the Avalanche, and don’t be surprised if their prices skyrocket by the end of the series.

Anaheim Ducks vs. San Jose Sharks

The Sharks’ top line took a major step forward after the addition of Evander Kane. Together with Joe Pavelski and Joonas Donskoi, San Jose 1 has averaged an otherworldly 41 scoring chances per 60 and boast a 77.78 GF% at 5v5 together. Expect Randy Carlyle to match his second line of Ryan Kesler, Jakob Silfverberg, and Andrew Cogliano against the Sharks’ top line so long as the games are played in Anaheim. While they are all capable two-way forwards, their defensive rates suggest this is nevertheless a favourable matchup for San Jose 1, as Anaheim 2 still surrenders nearly 30 scoring chances per 60. Kane, Pavelski, and Donskoi make for a strong build tonight in this matchup and offer some decent value at just $16,500 on DraftKings for the full stack.

On the flip side of things, the Ducks’ top line makes for a decent stack themselves as long as they’re at home and can avoid going up against the aforementioned San Jose 1. That means a full game stack is certainly in play tonight if you can manage to round out your lineup with some value plays. Brandon Montour makes for a great addition to Anaheim 1 and a strong one-off play at just $4,200 as Cam Fowler’s absence should result in a bump to his usage.


By: Brock Seguin

Injury Updates

In

– Steven Stamkos (lower-body) will be in the Lightning lineup for Game 1.
– Rick Nash (concussion) will be back in the Bruins lineup for Game 1.

Out

– Joe Thornton (knee) is not available for Game 1.
– Riley Nash (ear) will not be in Game 1; is a possibility for Game 2.
– Jay Beagle (upper-body) will not play in Game 1.

Projected Lineups

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New Jersey Devils

Tampa Bay Lightning New Jersey Devils
LW C RW
J.T. Miller
J.T. MILLER

Rating: 74.6#38 LW

Steven Stamkos
STEVEN STAMKOS

Rating: 81.0#11 C

Nikita Kucherov
NIKITA KUCHEROV

Rating: 85.3#1 RW

Ondrej Palat
ONDREJ PALAT

Rating: 75.2#32 LW

Brayden Point
BRAYDEN POINT

Rating: 78.6#26 C

Tyler Johnson
TYLER JOHNSON

Rating: 74.5#38 RW

Yanni Gourde
YANNI GOURDE

Rating: 79.1#11 LW

Anthony Cirelli
ANTHONY CIRELLI

Rating: 74.3#57 C

Alex Killorn
ALEX KILLORN

Rating: 74.1#60 RW

Chris Kunitz
CHRIS KUNITZ

Rating: 72.5#67 LW

Cedric Paquette
CEDRIC PAQUETTE

Rating: 71.7#117 C

Ryan Callahan
RYAN CALLAHAN

Rating: 70.5#104 RW

DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS
Victor Hedman
VICTOR HEDMAN

Rating: 82.0#2 LD

Dan Girardi
DAN GIRARDI

Rating: 72.1#64 RD

Ryan McDonagh
RYAN MCDONAGH

Rating: 76.4#18 LD

Anton Stralman
ANTON STRALMAN

Rating: 74.9#30 RD

Braydon Coburn
BRAYDON COBURN

Rating: 70.9#104 LD

Mikhail Sergachev
MIKHAIL SERGACHEV

Rating: 73.2#41 RD

LW C RW
Taylor Hall
TAYLOR HALL

Rating: 86.3#1 LW

Nico Hischier
NICO HISCHIER

Rating: 75.2#49 C

Kyle Palmieri
KYLE PALMIERI

Rating: 79.5#8 RW

Miles Wood
MILES WOOD

Rating: 71.3#89 LW

Pavel Zacha
PAVEL ZACHA

Rating: 70.9#129 C

Patrick Maroon
PATRICK MAROON

Rating: 72.5#61 RW

Blake Coleman
BLAKE COLEMAN

Rating: 72.3#71 LW

Travis Zajac
TRAVIS ZAJAC

Rating: 72.8#81 C

Drew Stafford
DREW STAFFORD

Rating: 69.8#111 RW

Michael Grabner
MICHAEL GRABNER

Rating: 72.1#76 LW

Brian Boyle
BRIAN BOYLE

Rating: 71.8#110 C

Brian Gibbons
BRIAN GIBBONS

Rating: 69.8#113 RW

DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS
Andy Greene
ANDY GREENE

Rating: 71.1#98 LD

Sami Vatanen
SAMI VATANEN

Rating: 75.6#23 RD

John Moore
JOHN MOORE

Rating: 71.8#76 LD

Mirco Mueller
MIRCO MUELLER

Rating: 71.1#85 RD

Will Butcher
WILL BUTCHER

Rating: 73.7#34 LD

Ben Lovejoy
BEN LOVEJOY

Rating: 70.3#94 RD

Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

Boston Bruins Toronto Maple Leafs
LW C RW
Brad Marchand
BRAD MARCHAND

Rating: 84.2#2 LW

Patrice Bergeron
PATRICE BERGERON

Rating: 84.1#4 C

David Pastrnak
DAVID PASTRNAK

Rating: 80.7#6 RW

Jake DeBrusk
JAKE DEBRUSK

Rating: 76.2#24 LW

David Krejci
DAVID KREJCI

Rating: 75.9#40 C

Rick Nash
RICK NASH

Rating: 75.0#33 RW

Danton Heinen
DANTON HEINEN

Rating: 74.3#43 LW

Noel Acciari
NOEL ACCIARI

Rating: 69.7#150 C

David Backes
DAVID BACKES

Rating: 73.5#67 RW

Tim Schaller
TIM SCHALLER

Rating: 70.0#120 LW

Sean Kuraly
SEAN KURALY

Rating: 69.8#148 C

Tommy Wingels
TOMMY WINGELS

Rating: 70.8#92 RW

DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS
Zdeno Chara
ZDENO CHARA

Rating: 76.2#19 LD

Charlie McAvoy
CHARLIE MCAVOY

Rating: 76.1#22 RD

Torey Krug
TOREY KRUG

Rating: 80.2#3 LD

Kevan Miller
KEVAN MILLER

Rating: 73.3#40 RD

Matt Grzelcyk
MATT GRZELCYK

Rating: 73.0#48 LD

Adam McQuaid
ADAM MCQUAID

Rating: 71.4#79 RD

LW C RW
Zach Hyman
ZACH HYMAN

Rating: 72.0#77 LW

Auston Matthews
AUSTON MATTHEWS

Rating: 83.4#6 C

William Nylander
WILLIAM NYLANDER

Rating: 78.2#13 RW

Patrick Marleau
PATRICK MARLEAU

Rating: 74.7#36 LW

Nazem Kadri
NAZEM KADRI

Rating: 77.4#31 C

Mitch Marner
MITCH MARNER

Rating: 76.3#37 RW

James van Riemsdyk
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK

Rating: 78.5#13 LW

Tyler Bozak
TYLER BOZAK

Rating: 73.2#74 C

Connor Brown
CONNOR BROWN

Rating: 70.6#98 RW

Leo Komarov
LEO KOMAROV

Rating: 70.0#117 LW

Tomas Plekanec
TOMAS PLEKANEC

Rating: 71.3#120 C

Kasperi Kapanen
KASPERI KAPANEN

Rating: 70.3#106 RW

DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS
Morgan Rielly
MORGAN RIELLY

Rating: 76.5#17 LD

Ron Hainsey
RON HAINSEY

Rating: 72.9#47 RD

Jake Gardiner
JAKE GARDINER

Rating: 76.6#15 LD

Nikita Zaitsev
NIKITA ZAITSEV

Rating: 72.6#53 RD

Travis Dermott
TRAVIS DERMOTT

Rating: 73.6#37 LD

Roman Polak
ROMAN POLAK

Rating: 70.2#97 RD

Washington Capitals vs. Columbus Blue Jackets

Washington Capitals Columbus Blue Jackets
LW C RW
Alex Ovechkin
ALEX OVECHKIN

Rating: 82.6#3 LW

Evgeny Kuznetsov
EVGENY KUZNETSOV

Rating: 80.7#12 C

Tom Wilson
TOM WILSON

Rating: 72.6#59 RW

Andre Burakovsky
ANDRE BURAKOVSKY

Rating: 73.9#50 LW

Nicklas Backstrom
NICKLAS BACKSTROM

Rating: 79.4#18 C

T.J. Oshie
T.J. OSHIE

Rating: 78.3#12 RW

Jakub Vrana
JAKUB VRANA

Rating: 70.0#119 LW

Lars Eller
LARS ELLER

Rating: 72.5#91 C

Devante Smith-Pelly
DEVANTE SMITH-PELLY

Rating: 68.2#134 RW

Brett Connolly
BRETT CONNOLLY

Rating: 71.0#88 LW

Chandler Stephenson
CHANDLER STEPHENSON

Rating: 68.8#162 C

Alex Chiasson
ALEX CHIASSON

Rating: 71.4#79 RW

DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS
Dmitri Orlov
DMITRI ORLOV

Rating: 74.4#27 LD

Matt Niskanen
MATT NISKANEN

Rating: 75.2#28 RD

Michal Kempny
MICHAL KEMPNY

Rating: 72.5#57 LD

John Carlson
JOHN CARLSON

Rating: 80.0#11 RD

Brooks Orpik
BROOKS ORPIK

Rating: 70.1#121 LD

Jakub Jerabek
JAKUB JERABEK

Rating: 72.4#57 RD

LW C RW
Artemi Panarin
ARTEMI PANARIN

Rating: 82.5#4 LW

Pierre-Luc Dubois
PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS

Rating: 76.6#34 C

Cam Atkinson
CAM ATKINSON

Rating: 79.7#7 RW

Boone Jenner
BOONE JENNER

Rating: 74.2#44 LW

Alexander Wennberg
ALEXANDER WENNBERG

Rating: 73.0#77 C

Thomas Vanek
THOMAS VANEK

Rating: 75.2#33 RW

Oliver Bjorkstrand
OLIVER BJORKSTRAND

Rating: 73.6#55 LW

Nick Foligno
NICK FOLIGNO

Rating: 73.4#70 C

Josh Anderson
JOSH ANDERSON

Rating: 73.3#52 RW

Matt Calvert
MATT CALVERT

Rating: 69.7#127 LW

Mark Letestu
MARK LETESTU

Rating: 69.9#147 C

Brandon Dubinsky
BRANDON DUBINSKY

Rating: 70.5#100 RW

DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS
Zach Werenski
ZACH WERENSKI

Rating: 77.5#10 LD

Seth Jones
SETH JONES

Rating: 80.3#10 RD

Ian Cole
IAN COLE

Rating: 73.2#43 LD

David Savard
DAVID SAVARD

Rating: 73.4#38 RD

Ryan Murray
RYAN MURRAY

Rating: 72.7#55 LD

Markus Nutivaara
MARKUS NUTIVAARA

Rating: 74.0#35 RD

Nashville Predators vs. Colorado Avalanche

Nashville Predators Colorado Avalanche
LW C RW
Filip Forsberg
FILIP FORSBERG

Rating: 80.4#7 LW

Ryan Johansen
RYAN JOHANSEN

Rating: 75.8#41 C

Viktor Arvidsson
VIKTOR ARVIDSSON

Rating: 77.8#15 RW

Kevin Fiala
KEVIN FIALA

Rating: 76.1#28 LW

Kyle Turris
KYLE TURRIS

Rating: 76.0#39 C

Craig Smith
CRAIG SMITH

Rating: 77.3#18 RW

Colton Sissons
COLTON SISSONS

Rating: 71.2#92 LW

Nick Bonino
NICK BONINO

Rating: 71.8#109 C

Austin Watson
AUSTIN WATSON

Rating: 70.8#90 RW

Miikka Salomaki
MIIKKA SALOMAKI

Rating: 68.6#142 LW

Mike Fisher
MIKE FISHER

Rating: 70.5#137 C

Ryan Hartman
RYAN HARTMAN

Rating: 72.3#65 RW

DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS
Roman Josi
ROMAN JOSI

Rating: 82.0#1 LD

Ryan Ellis
RYAN ELLIS

Rating: 82.0#2 RD

Mattias Ekholm
MATTIAS EKHOLM

Rating: 77.2#12 LD

P.K. Subban
P.K. SUBBAN

Rating: 81.2#5 RD

Alexei Emelin
ALEXEI EMELIN

Rating: 70.2#119 LD

Matt Irwin
MATT IRWIN

Rating: 70.1#98 RD

LW C RW
Gabriel Landeskog
GABRIEL LANDESKOG

Rating: 74.4#41 LW

Nathan Mackinnon
NATHAN MACKINNON

Rating: 83.9#5 C

Mikko Rantanen
MIKKO RANTANEN

Rating: 76.8#23 RW

Alexander Kerfoot
ALEXANDER KERFOOT

Rating: 72.2#74 LW

Tyson Jost
TYSON JOST

Rating: 70.3#140 C

Sven Andrighetto
SVEN ANDRIGHETTO

Rating: 72.1#72 RW

Matthew Nieto
MATTHEW NIETO

Rating: 70.1#112 LW

Carl Soderberg
CARL SODERBERG

Rating: 71.9#108 C

Blake Comeau
BLAKE COMEAU

Rating: 70.8#91 RW

Gabriel Bourque
GABRIEL BOURQUE

Rating: 67.7#146 LW

JT Compher
JT COMPHER

Rating: 70.7#132 C

Colin Wilson
COLIN WILSON

Rating: 70.7#95 RW

DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS
Nikita Zadorov
NIKITA ZADOROV

Rating: 70.3#116 LD

Tyson Barrie
TYSON BARRIE

Rating: 77.7#15 RD

Patrik Nemeth
PATRIK NEMETH

Rating: 71.0#100 LD

Samuel Girard
SAMUEL GIRARD

Rating: 71.5#89 RD

Mark Barberio
MARK BARBERIO

Rating: 72.5#59 LD

David Warsofsky
DAVID WARSOFSKY

Rating: 71.4#80 RD

Anaheim Ducks vs. San Jose Sharks

Anaheim Ducks San Jose Sharks
LW C RW
Rickard Rakell
RICKARD RAKELL

Rating: 79.5#8 LW

Ryan Getzlaf
RYAN GETZLAF

Rating: 81.0#10 C

Corey Perry
COREY PERRY

Rating: 74.2#42 RW

Andrew Cogliano
ANDREW COGLIANO

Rating: 73.6#53 LW

Ryan Kesler
RYAN KESLER

Rating: 75.4#46 C

Jakob Silfverberg
JAKOB SILFVERBERG

Rating: 75.9#29 RW

Nick Ritchie
NICK RITCHIE

Rating: 71.3#90 LW

Adam Henrique
ADAM HENRIQUE

Rating: 75.7#43 C

Ondrej Kase
ONDREJ KASE

Rating: 74.5#36 RW

Antoine Vermette
ANTOINE VERMETTE

Rating: 70.0#121 LW

Derek Grant
DEREK GRANT

Rating: 69.4#153 C

J.T. Brown
J.T. BROWN

Rating: 68.9#125 RW

DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS
Hampus Lindholm
HAMPUS LINDHOLM

Rating: 77.7#8 LD

Josh Manson
JOSH MANSON

Rating: 76.2#21 RD

Francois Beauchemin
FRANCOIS BEAUCHEMIN

Rating: 73.5#39 LD

Brandon Montour
BRANDON MONTOUR

Rating: 75.6#24 RD

Marcus Pettersson
MARCUS PETTERSSON

Rating: 71.7#81 LD

Andy Welinski
ANDY WELINSKI

Rating: 72.2#60 RD

LW C RW
Evander Kane
EVANDER KANE

Rating: 78.0#14 LW

Joe Pavelski
JOE PAVELSKI

Rating: 78.7#23 C

Joonas Donskoi
JOONAS DONSKOI

Rating: 74.5#35 RW

Tomas Hertl
TOMAS HERTL

Rating: 74.3#42 LW

Logan Couture
LOGAN COUTURE

Rating: 77.7#29 C

Mikkel Boedker
MIKKEL BOEDKER

Rating: 71.9#74 RW

Timo Meier
TIMO MEIER

Rating: 73.3#51 LW

Chris Tierney
CHRIS TIERNEY

Rating: 72.1#103 C

Kevin Labanc
KEVIN LABANC

Rating: 72.2#68 RW

Marcus Sorensen
MARCUS SORENSEN

Rating: 71.4#87 LW

Dylan Gambrell
DYLAN GAMBRELL

Rating: 72.3#98 C

Melker Karlsson
MELKER KARLSSON

Rating: 70.2#108 RW

DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS
Paul Martin
PAUL MARTIN

Rating: 73.1#47 LD

Brent Burns
BRENT BURNS

Rating: 83.0#1 RD

Marc-Edouard Vlasic
MARC-EDOUARD VLASIC

Rating: 76.1#22 LD

Justin Braun
JUSTIN BRAUN

Rating: 73.0#46 RD

Brenden Dillon
BRENDEN DILLON

Rating: 71.5#86 LD

Dylan DeMelo
DYLAN DEMELO

Rating: 71.7#70 RD

Goalie Rankings

✅ – Confirmed
????️ – Probable
????️ – Projected

BROCK SEGUIN DYLAN BERTHIAUME
1. Pekka Rinne (vs. COL)
????️ [$8,500]
1 2
2. Andrei Vasilevskiy (vs. NJD)
✅ [$8,400]
3 1
3. John Gibson (vs. SJS)
????️ [$8,400]
2 4
4. Sergei Bobrovsky (@ WSH)
✅ [$7,400]
5 4
5. Tuukka Rask (vs. TOR)
✅ [$8,200]
6 5
6. Martin Jones (@ ANA)
✅ [$7,300]
4 8
7. Frederik Andersen (@ BOS)
✅ [$7,500]
8 6
8. Philipp Grubauer (vs. CBJ)
✅ [$7,900]
7 7
t-9. Keith Kinkaid (@ TBL)
✅ [$7,200]
9 10
t-9. Jonathan Bernier (@ NSH)
✅ [$7,000]
10 9

Value Plays

BROCK SEGUIN DYLAN BERTHIAUME
FORWARD Alex Killorn ($3,900) Joonas Donskoi ($4,000)
DEFENSEMAN Mattias Ekholm ($3,600) Brandon Montour ($4,200)
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Brock Seguin

Brock has been the Editor-In-Chief of DailyFaceoff.com since the start of the 2012-13 season, the Host of the DFO Podcast since 2015 and Editor-In-Chief of DailyDugout since the 2017 season.
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