Daily Fantasy Hockey Playoff Preview: 04/14/18

Each day of the NHL Playoffs, Dylan and Brock will be collaborating on a full preview of that night’s playoff action. Dylan will break down each game from a Daily Fantasy Hockey perspective, giving you some of his favourite targets. Brock will provide his Daily Fantasy Notebook after morning skates, including Projected Lineups, Injury Updates, Goalie Rankings and DFS Value Plays. Enjoy playoff hockey and the best time of the year!

By: Dylan Berthiaume

Nashville Predators vs. Colorado Avalanche

As many predicted before the series, the depth of the Predators proved too much to handle for the Avalanche in game 1. Nashville’s top line was able to keep Nathan Mackinnon and company in check and the matchup was a wash at 5v5 for the first two periods. Nashville 1 was finally able to pull away in the third when Filip Forsberg netted a pair of goals to secure the victory for the Preds. As mentioned in Thursday’s preview article, it’s best to fade Colorado 1 until the series heads back to Denver for games 3 and 4 where Mackinnon averaged a ridiculous 1.7 points per game this season.

While they weren’t able to find the back of the net on Thursday, aside from a powerplay goal by Craig Smith, Nashville 2 still projects to have the most favourable matchup at 5v5 tonight. Smith, Kevin Fiala, and Kyle Turris average 36 scoring chances per 60, a rate they should have no trouble sustaining against the depth of the Avalanche. They weren’t able to convert on their chances Thursday, but I wouldn’t bet on that happening again.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New Jersey Devils

Tampa Bay 1 was the chalk on Thursday night just as we expected, but it was the second line of the Lightning that stole the show, combining for the team’s first four goals before Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos connected for an empty-net dagger late in the third period. Remarkably, Tampa’s second line of Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, and Brayden Point did all this while matched up against Taylor Hall and the Devils’ top line. Despite Hall netting two points himself, Tampa Bay 2 dominated the high-event matchup at 5v5 and it’s hard to overlook them in that same matchup tonight.

The Devils’ second line has performed admirably as a shutdown unit all season long and they certainly answered the call against Stamkos and Kucherov on Thursday. While it may not be worth investing in the full stack in GPPs, the Lightning’s dynamic duo still make for solid plays in cash games so long as Keith Kinkaid is between the pipes for the Devils. New Jersey took just a single penalty on Thursday despite averaging 3.3 minor penalties a game in the regular season, so you can expect Tampa Bay’s high-octane powerplay to see more opportunities tonight.

Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

There was an interesting development at the end of the second period just before the Bruins netted a back-breaking third goal to extend their lead to two. With less than a minute left in the period, Mike Babcock inexplicably elected to send his fourth line out for a defensive zone faceoff. Bruce Cassidy alertly countered with his top line, and 15 seconds later David Pastrnak fired the puck into the back of the net. It goes without saying that this was a serious mismatch in Boston’s favour and the Bruins made Babcock pay for a questionable coaching decision. Obviously the fourth line does have to play at some point and the Bruins are always capable of countering however they please with the last change, but normally Cassidy would be deterred from putting his top line out knowing that if they were unable to score Auston Matthews would then have a shift or two free of Patrice Bergeron. But when you put your fourth line out at the end of the period there’s no time to come right back out with Matthews. Babcock handed Cassidy and the Bruins a 70:30 matchup with no possible repercussions, and the result all but lost the game for the Leafs. It was a small but powerful example of how big of an advantage the last change can be, and it just goes to show why we put so much stock into line matching from a forecasting perspective.

Of course, the Leafs were outplayed from start to finish in this one and it takes more than a single coaching error to lose a game 5-1. Nazem Kadri’s three-game suspension is a serious blow to the Leafs’ playoff chances and it makes Boston 1 a viable stack for games 3 and 4 on the road when the Leafs can no longer hard match Kadri against Bergeron. Kadri’s absence has had a ripple effect on the Leafs’ lineup and Leo Komorov is now expected to be on the top line alongside Matthews and William Nylander. Babcock cited Komorov’s familiarity with the Bergeron matchup as the reason for the change, but from a DFS perspective it only makes a Boston 1 stack all the more appealing tonight. It would be wise to fade the Leafs’ top-six tonight but you can still get some good value out of their third line, driven by Tyler Bozak and James van Reimsdyk.

Anaheim Ducks vs. San Jose Sharks

Randy Carlyle stayed true to form and hard-matched his so-called shutdown line of Ryan Kesler, Jakob Silfverberg, and Andrew Cogliano against the Sharks’ top line on Thursday. The result was a pair of goals for Evander Kane and a 3-0 victory for the Sharks. San Jose 1 dominated the matchup all night long and the Ducks were lucky to keep Kane from netting a hattrick. Carlyle has a reputation of being stubborn in his decision-making so don’t be surprised if he comes right back with the same matchup for game 2, meaning there’s plenty of reasons to stack the Shark’s top line tonight. If you can round out your lineup with some value Brent Burns is always an extremely valuable add to this build.

On the flip side, it was surprising to see the Ducks’ top line held off the scoresheet entirely in this matchup, though much of that can be chalked up to a stellar performance by Martin Jones. Anaheim 1 still makes for a strong build tonight and they should see a dip in ownership after their poor performance on Thursday. Again, with Cam Fowler out Brandon Montour could provide some tremendous value at just $3,800 on DraftKings.

By: Brock Seguin

Injury Updates

GAMETIME DECISION

– Tommy Wingels (undisclosed) will be a game-time decision for Game 2.

– Joe Thornton (knee) is questionable for Game 2 in Anaheim.

OUT

– Calle Jarnkrok (upper-body) is not expected to play in Game 2.

– Riley Nash (ear laceration) will not play in Game 2 vs. Toronto.

– Nazem Kadri has been suspended for three games.

Projected Lineups

???? – Gametime Decision

Nashville Predators vs. Colorado Avalanche

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New Jersey Devils

Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

Anaheim Ducks vs. San Jose Sharks

Goalie Rankings

✅ – Confirmed
????️ – Probable
????️ – Projected

Value Plays