Daily NHL betting guide: January 22
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Model’s Picks
Recommended Bets
Buffalo Sabres (vs. PHI)
The Sabres come into Saturday’s afternoon game having lost nine of their last 11 (2-6-3), while being outscored 3.5-to-2.3 per game. However, they were missing key bodies in most of those games but their top-6 will be mostly intact today. Meanwhile, the Flyers are on their second 10-game losing streak of the season, averaging just 1.9 goals-for per game during that stretch. Something has to give in this matchup and the model likes Buffalo as +122 home underdogs.
The Flyers will be without Sean Couturier, Kevin Hayes, Joel Farabee, Ryan Ellis, Nate Thompson, Patrick Brown and Sam Morin.
1 Unit Bet: BUF +122
New York Islanders (vs. TOR)
The Islanders shut out the Coyotes last night and the Maple Leafs have lost three of the first five games on their road trip, which wraps up tonight. With Ilya Sorokin facing just 17 shots last night, there’s a chance he could start both games of the back-to-back. That would help the Islanders’ odds even more. The Maple Leafs will go with Petr Mrazek, which is also better for the Islanders, although Jack Campbell has struggled recently. The model still sees Toronto as -117 favorites in this game but sees plenty of value on the Islanders at +154.
1 Unit Bet: NYI +154
Proceed with Caution ⚠️
Carolina Hurricanes (@ NJD)
The model likes the Hurricanes on the tail end of a back-to-back at -172 but this is one to keep an eye on. If Frederik Andersen starts again or if Antti Raanta is ready, then this would be a bet. If Jack LaFontaine makes his first career start, it would be one to stay away from.
1 Unit Bet: CAR -172 (if Andersen or Raanta start).
Tyler Yaremchuk’s Picks
Game Pick
Carolina Hurricanes in regulation vs. New Jersey Devils (-115)
The Canes just dominated the Rangers last night, only allowing 23 shots against one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. Carolina has also been a great road bet this season, going 14-4-1 while the Devils are just 9-8-3 on home ice. They’re also expected to be starting Jon Gillies, so whoever Carolina starts, they’ll have the advantage between the pipes. I’m also taking the Flyers in regulation vs Buffalo this afternoon at +110.
Prop Pick
Andre Burakovsky over 0.5 assists vs. Montreal Canadiens (+125)
The Avalanche are insane -600 favorites against Montreal today and considering that, I can’t believe Burakovsky is +125 to get an assist. He’s the only Avs player that PointsBet is offering plus money on to get an apple and he’s actually picked one up in four of his last five and seven of his last 10. I got a sweep last night on my picks, so let’s hope this is the start of a heater!