Daily NHL Betting Guide: October 26
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
October 26th, 2021
Recommended Bets
Nashville Predators (vs. SJS)
Through the first few weeks of the season, there are only a few teams who have a larger disparity between their GoalsFor and ExpectedGoalsFor than the San Jose Sharks. They’ve been riding a sky-high team shooting percentage (12.77) so it’s safe to assume that their offense will cool off in the near future. It could come as soon as tonight when they face a Predators team that is a top-10 in all of the key defensive metrics with a fresh Juuse Saros expected between the pipes. The model and I both like Nashville at -136.
1 Unit Bet: NSH -136
Montreal Canadiens (@ SEA)
It has been an ugly start to the season for both of these teams, but when you look at the numbers the Kraken looks like the inferior team. Montreal is coming off of a get-right win over the Red Wings on Saturday and heads to Seattle to try and make it two in a row. There isn’t much to suggest that this Kraken team is very good and we know that Montreal can be better than what we’ve seen so far. Until the sportsbooks figure out who the Kraken is, I’m going to continue to fade them when they are favorites, like they are tonight. The model sees Montreal as the biggest favorites on the slate and you can get them at even money (+100) right now.
1 Unit Bet: MTL +100
Proceed with Caution ⚠️
Pittsburgh Penguins (vs. TBL)
I continue to question the model’s faith in the Penguins without Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust, Jeff Carter and Kris Letang, but they just keep winning. Still, even with the Lightning coming off of an ugly loss in Buffalo last night, I don’t trust this banged-up Penguins team as much as the model does. It has been right more than me when it comes to the Penguins this season though, so you’ll have to make a judgement call with PIT +125.
2021-22 Season Record
- Record: 8-5
- Units: +1.43
- ROI: +11.00%