DailyFaceoff/Corsica NHL Bets (December 5th)

The Corsica NHL betting predictions nearly missed out on another perfect outing on Tuesday. Corsica gave the Canucks a 66.46% chance of covering a +1.5-goal spread against the Wild last night. Josh Leivo’s first goal as a Canuck set the tone early as Vancouver led for most of the night. A pair of late power-play goals would be enough to earn the Wild a win but not enough to cover the spread, making the final 3-2. While its most probable bet was never in doubt, Corsica’s most valuable bet came right down to the wire. Corsica liked the Senators and Habs’ chances of finishing under 6.5 goals last night, but a garbage-time goal from Mark Stone made it a 5-2 final for Montreal, ending Corsica’s bid for a perfect night.

With only three games on the slate tonight, there aren’t a whole lot of spots to like. I’ve highlighted Corscia’s highest probability and value bets below, in hopes of helping you all win a little bit of money. Good luck!

For more information on how Corsica generates these predictions, click HERE.

Highest Probability

Hurricanes @ Sharks – Spread | CAR +1.5 (-209)

Corsica puts a lot of stock into a team’s numbers at even strength, so it’s no surprise to see them going with the Hurricanes tonight. The Hurricanes are averaging the most shots per game in the NHL right now (38.7) and the most scoring chances per 60 at 5v5 (33.35), yet they’ve scored the third-fewest goals in the league. Their struggles on offense are clearly not for a lack of trying and can be attributed to the worst 5v5 SH% in the NHL (5.36%). Carolina had similar issues last season, but they’re starting to reinvent what it means to have bad puck luck. You can bet on their production regressing favourably sooner than later, which explains Corsica trying to get ahead of the trend tonight. They give Carolina a 69.92% chance of covering the +1.5-goal spread tonight, making it by far the most probable bet on the slate.

Highest Value

Hurricanes @ Sharks – Over/Under | Under 5.5 (+108)

While Corsica gives this bet just a 53.15% chance of hitting, no bet will offer you better bang for your buck on tonight’s slate. If this game does finish under 5.5 goals, you can bet Jordan Staal is going to have something to do with it. The 13-year veteran is well-regarded as one of the best shutdown centres in the NHL, and for good reason. Lines centered by Staal routinely out-chance the opposition by a significant margin. He should be able to maintain the Sharks’ heavy hitters at 5v5 tonight.

Speaking of the Sharks, their projected lineup for tonight’s game is sub-optimal, to put it lightly. Joe Pavelski is expected to play on the wing of Logan Couture, while Joe Thornton and Antti Suomela move up to centre lines two and three, respectively. Simply put, the Sharks are a much more dangerous team with Pavelski playing centre. It gives them a much deeper lineup with three lines that can dominate the puck and bury opponents in their own end. Going up against one of the best 5v5 teams in the NHL, the Sharks don’t project to create a whole lot of offense tonight. A pair of half-decent performances from Curtis McElhinney and Martin Jones would all but guarantee the under in this one.