DailyFaceoff/Corsica NHL Bets (February 18th)

Updated: February 18, 2019 at 2:10 pm by Dylan Berthiaume

After an impressive performance last week, the Corsica NHL betting predictions takes aim at today’s six-game slate. I’ve highlighted Monday’s most probable and valuable bets below. You can find predictions for all of today’s games here. Good luck!

Highest Value

Senators @ Blackhawks – Over/Under | Under 6.5 (+127)

Chicago has the hottest power-play in the league, but they’re going up against a stout penalty-killing team in Ottawa. The Senators have killed 91.7% of their penalties over the last 30 days. While some of that can be attributed to strong systematic play, goaltender Anders Nilsson deserves most of the credit. The 28-year-old has been a revelation in goal since being acquired by the Senators in early January. He owns a .927 SV% and a 2.47 GAA in 13 games with the Sens. He’s allowed more than three goals in just three of those appearances. If you’re looking for a reason to get on board with the under in this game, Nilsson is it.

While the top-sixes of these respective teams surrender chances at an alarming rate, they both deploy some effective checking lines. Chicago is giving up just 25 scoring chances per 60 with their third line on the ice. Not to be outdone, the Jean-Gabriel Pageau line for the Senators is surrendering just 23 scoring chances and seven high-danger chances per 60. The pace of play should slow down with these two lines on the ice, giving some credence to the under. Corsica gives this game a 64.01% chance of finishing with less than 6.5 goals. That’s some incredible value at +127.

Highest Probability

Capitals @ Kings – Spread | LAK +1.5 (-271)

Given the disparity of the records of these two teams, it’s easy to overlook the Kings tonight. But according to Corsica, with a likelihood of 77.29%, there’s no safer play on tonight’s slate than Los Angeles covering. The Kings seemed to have finally found their optimal line combinations. The Anze Kopitar line isn’t quite what they were last season, but they still manage to churn out even possession rates despite taking on the toughest assignments on a nightly basis. They should be more than capable of shutting down Alexander Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov tonight. Jeff Carter and Tyler Toffoli make for a serviceable second line. The Kings are giving up just 23 scoring chances per 60 with the two of them on the ice.

Ilya Kovalchuk also seems to finally be at home alongside Adrian Kempe and Carl Hagelin. The three of them are averaging 27 scoring chances per 60, solid production for a third line. The Capitals have struggled at even strength all season, relying on their power-play and stellar goaltending to bail them out. It’s unlikely those crutches will be there for them in LA tonight. T.J. Oshie left yesterday’s game with an upper-body injury and is doubtful to play tonight. He is an integral part of the Capitals’ power-play and his absence will likely force Brett Connolly into the top-six.

Braden Holtby played last night against the Ducks, so you can expect to see Pheonix Copley in goal tonight. Copley’s been mediocre at best this season, posting a .903 SV% and 3.02 GAA in 21 appearances. He’s allowed 21 goals in his last five games. The Kings are expected to counter with Jack Campbell. The Kings’ backup has been outstanding this season and is deserving of a larger role. Remarkably, his record sits at 7-10-0 despite a .928 SV% and 2.23 GAA. He gives his team a chance to win every game he starts and tonight should be no different. With a likelihood of 54.32%, Corsica actually likes the Kings to win this game outright.

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Dylan Berthiaume

Dylan has been an Associate Editor of DailyFaceoff since 2018 and a co-host of the DFO Podcast since 2015.
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