DailyFaceoff/Corsica NHL Bets (February 19th)

The Corsica NHL betting predictions looks to redeem itself after completely whiffing on yesterday’s high-value play. Corsica liked the value you were getting out of the under for the Senators and Blackhawks, a game that comically went over the 6.5-goal mark before the first period ended. It was easily the biggest miss we’ve seen out of Corsica all season. Corsica did correctly predict the high-probability play, so we’ll give them a pass on last night’s blunder.

Looking to redeem themselves, Corsica takes aim at Tuesday’s busy slate. There are nine games on tap, but Corsica needed just one to select their high-value and probability plays. I’ve highlighted both below. You can find predictions for all of tonight’s games here. Good luck!

Highest Value

Lightning @ Flyers – Over/Under | Under 6.5 (+111)

The line matching in this game should help it stay well under the 6.5-goal mark. The Flyers’ most productive line will have their hands full trying to maintain Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. Their second line, featuring Sean Couturier, Jakub Voracek, and Oskar Lindblom is by far their best trio at even strength. With Couturier being one of the best two-way forwards in the NHL, they routinely draw the toughest assignments on home ice. Their main focus tonight will be stopping Kucherov from notching point number 100. It should limit their offensive zone time and their production as a result. The Claude Giroux and Nolan Patrick lines struggle to create any sort of meaningful offense at 5v5. The Flyers can’t be expected to do much offensively while the Couturier line is focused on maintaining the best line in hockey.

On the flip side of things, Tampa’s offensive upside should be limited by the natural fatigue of playing on the tail-end of a back to back. Their red-hot power-play is also unlikely to be as much of a factor tonight. The Flyers are killing off 81.5% of their penalties over the last month, thanks in large part to Carter Hart. The 20-year-old phenom is enjoying a dynamite rookie season, posting a .924 SV% and 2.53 GAA across 20 games. He’s fresh off a 37-save performance in the Flyers’ 3-1 victory over the Red Wings on Sunday and is the biggest reason to believe in the under tonight. Corsica gives this game a 62.00% chance of finishing with less than 6.5 goals, giving it tremendous value at +111.

Highest Probability

Lightning @ Flyers – Spread | PHI +1.5 (-210)

Corsica is really banking on fatigue causing some sort of letdown for the Lightning tonight, giving the Flyers a 74.47% chance of covering the +1.5-goal spread. Not only is this the safest bet on the slate, but at -210 you’re getting some pretty good value, too. As always, these two bets are mutually exclusive, but there is some legitimacy to the Flyers winning a low-scoring affair.

It’s always intimidating to bet against the Lightning, but it’s hard to look passed the goaltending matchup in this one. With Andrei Vasilevskiy getting the nod last night against Columbus, Louis Domingue is expected to be in goal tonight. Domingue’s enjoyed the riches surrounding him in Tampa this season, posting an 18-4-0 record despite a 2.90 GAA. I’ve already gone over why we’re not expecting that goal support to be there for him tonight. Philly might struggle to score at 5v5, but they could easily put a power-play goal or two passed Domingue. The Flyers have converted on 34.3% of their power-play opportunities over the last 30 days. They have two strong, balanced units that make it difficult to survive the full two minutes. The man advantage should be the great equalizer tonight against Domingue and the Lightning.