DailyFaceoff/Corsica NHL Bets (January 15th)
Corsica turned in a respectable performance on Monday, whiffing on its high-value play but nailing the most probable bet of the night. With a likelihood of 75.8%, the Flyers beating a +1.5-goal spread against the Wild was pegged as the most likely bet to hit. The Flyers offense carried them to a 7-4 victory, highlighted by a four-point performance from Nolan Patrick and a hat-trick from James van Riemsdyk. The Leafs and Avalanche finishing with less than 6.5 goals was thought to be the most valuable bet on the slate. The bet looked promising early after a scoreless first period, but the two offensive juggernauts woke up in the second period. A pair of empty-net goals from the Avalanche made the final score 6-3.
There are plenty of spots to like tonight with ten games on tap. I’ve highlighted Corsica’s most valuable and probable bets below. You can check out predictions for all of tonight’s games here. Good luck!
Highest Value
Penguins @ Sharks – Over/Under | Under 6.5 (+111)
Although San Jose and Pittsburgh are revered for their offensive talents, they are two of the more defensively-sound teams in the NHL. The Sharks ranked fourth in the NHL with 24.11 scoring chances against per 60 at 5v5, and the Penguins aren’t too far behind at 26.05. They both surrender less than three goals a game and sit top five in the NHL in PK%. Look for the stout penalty-killing to win over the mighty power-plays in this one.
No line in either team’s top-six averages more than 25 scoring chances against per 60, suggesting we’ll see a relatively low-event game at 5v5. Tonight’s contest between the Sharks and Penguins also features two of the hottest goaltenders in the NHL. Matt Murray has not lost a start since returning from injury on December 15. He has a 9-0-0 record with a .953 SV% over that span. The Sharks are expected to counter with Martin Jones. Jones comes into tonight’s game on a seven-game winning streak and has allowed just four goals on 89 shots (.955 SV%) in his last three appearances. Corsica gives this game a 62.5% chance of finishing with less than 6.5 goals.
Highest Probability
Panthers @ Canadiens – Spread | FLA +1.5 (-246)
According to Corsica, with a 74.35% chance of hitting, you won’t find a safer bet than this on tonight’s slate. The Panthers have been one of the unluckiest teams in the league this season, posting the NHL’s lowest PDO (0.973). Their power-play has been effective all season and they’ve done an admirable job of possessing the puck at even strength, but they’ve been let down by a 7.03 SH% and a .902 SV% at 5v5. This type of trend really is unlucky and is bound to break sooner or later, and Corsica will continue to put its money on the former. The Panthers did some line juggling in practice this morning and are expected to start Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, and Mike Hoffman on three separate lines in an effort to balance out their lineup.
The Canadiens also did some rather peculiar tweaking of their lineup lately, splitting up the possession-dominant trio of Tomas Tatar, Phillip Danault, and Brendan Gallagher. They also separated Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Artturi Lehkonen, who own some gaudy numbers at 5v5 this season. Antti Niemi is expected to get the nod in goal tonight after Carey Price started last night against the Bruins. Niemi’s play has left a lot to be desired this season, with an .886 SV% and a 3.85 GAA in 12 games. The Panthers should be able to take advantage of a tired Montreal team as they continue to work out the kinks in their lineup.