DailyFaceoff/Corsica NHL Bets (January 16th)
Highest Value
Avalanche @ Senators – Over/Under | Under 6.5 (+120)
Corsica’s love for playing the under is justified in lopsided matchups like this one. The Avalanche seem set to dominate the Senators at 5v5, and even with all the star power on their side, it’s highly unlikely they score enough to singlehandedly hit the over. The Senators boast the league’s worst CF% at 5v5 (44.03%) and the third-worst GF% (43.84%). Semyon Varlamov should be able to handle the little offense the Senators are able to generate as he continues to round back into form.
Anders Nilsson is the Senators’ best bet to limit the production of Colorado’s top line tonight. Nilsson’s posted a .920 SV% and a 2.43 GAA in five games since being acquired by the Senators. Colorado’s power-play is a serious threat to the over in this one, but another solid start from Nilsson and some typically-disciplined play from the Senators could keep the goal-scoring to a minimum. Ottawa is averaging just 3.2 minor penalties per game this season. Corsica gives this game a 61.08% chance of finishing with less than 6.5 goals.
Highest Probability
Bruins @ Flyers – Spread | PHI +1.5 (-199)
There aren’t a whole lot of safe options tonight with just five games on the slate. The Flyers beating a +1.5-goal spread at home against the Bruins is Corsica’s most probable bet, with a relatively-low likelihood of 67.83%. Despite the uncertainty, there are plenty of reasons to like the Flyers tonight. Claude Giroux seems to have finally hit his stride as a centre and looks great between James van Reimsdyk and Travis Konecny. Sean Couturier and Jakub Voracek should be able to mitigate the impact of Boston’s top line tonight, allowing Giroux and JVR to go to work against the depth of the Bruins. Scott Laughton, Nolan Patrick, and Wayne Simmonds have emerged to form a competent third-line for the Flyers. They’ll look to keep things rolling tonight after combining for nine points against the Wild on Monday.
Jaroslav Halak is expected to be in goal for the Bruins tonight. Halak’s game has come crashing back down to Earth after an unbelievable start to the season. He’s allowed eleven goals on 90 shots (.878 SV%) across his last three starts. Things won’t get any easier for him tonight against a Flyers team fresh off their best game of the season. A respectable performance from Carter Hart should be all the Flyers need to keep this one close, if not win outright.