DailyFaceoff/Corsica NHL Bets (January 29th)
The Corsica NHL betting predictions started the second half of the NHL season with a perfect outing on Monday. Corsica doubled-down on the Flyers and was rewarded handsomely. The under for the Flyers and Jets was pegged to be the most valuable play, while Philadelphia beating the spread was thought to be the most likely. Philadelphia grinded out a hard-fought game and bested Winnipeg by a score of 3-1.
Corsica’s faith in the Flyers being able to win a low-scoring affair was justified, and they’re going back to that same well tonight. I’ve highlighted their most valuable and probable bets below. You can find predictions for all of tonight’s games here. Good luck!
Highest Value
Flyers @ Rangers – Over/Under | Under 6.5 (-104)
Some might have a hard time seeing passed the goaltending matchup, but there are plenty of reasons to like the under here. Both the Flyers and Rangers have underwhelmed offensively this season. They rank 20th and 26th, respectively, in the league in goals per game. Neither team creates a lot of offense at even strength and they both struggle with the man advantage. The Flyers’ five-forward experiment on their top power-play unit doesn’t seem to be helping, either. Over the last three weeks, they’ve converted on just 9.1% of their power-play chances. Their abysmal power-play has hampered the Flyers all season, but it should help this game get to the under tonight.
As I often point out in this post, there is always some associated-risk in the high-value plays, and that risk tonight is the goaltending. Anthony Stolarz vs Alexandar Georgiev is not a very encouraging matchup when you’re looking to play the under. They’ve both struggled with consistency this season but have shown flashes of competence. Luckily for us, given how both teams struggle to create and convert on high-danger chances, we won’t need more than a mediocre effort from the goaltenders in this one. It’s far from a guarantee, but both Stolarz and Georgiev are certainly capable of mediocrity. Corsica gives this game a 58.17% chance of finishing with less than 6.5 goals.
Highest Probability
Flyers @ Rangers – Spread | PHI +1.5 (-241)
Corsica is going all in on the Flyers on back-to-back nights. It sounds crazy, I know, and while these bets are mutually exclusive, there’s plenty of reason to think Philadelphia can win another low-scoring affair tonight. No team in the league averages fewer shot attempts per 60 than the Rangers, and the Flyers are surrendering the second-fewest scoring chances per 60. For all their struggles this season, the Flyers have been one of the more defensively-responsible teams at even strength.
On top of all that, Mats Zuccarello will not play tonight. He’s considered day-to-day with a foot infection. The 31-year-old Norwegian went on a tear prior to the All-Star break. He’s racked up four goals and five assists in his last five games, and his absence creates a huge avoid atop New York’s lineup. Of course, there is always the added-fatigue that comes with playing on the tail-end of a back-to-back, but that’s been more than accounted for in the +1.5-goal spread. Corsica gives Philadelphia a 72.9% chance of beating the spread tonight, making it most probable bet on the slate.