DailyFaceoff/Corsica NHL Bets (January 8th)
The Corsica NHL betting predictions nearly missed out on another perfect night on Monday. Corsica gave the Predators a 71.94% chance of covering a +1.5-goal spread against the Maple Leafs, making it the most likely bet on the slate. Nashville rode another strong performance from Pekka Rinne to a 4-0 shutout victory, securing the night’s most probable bet. The most valuable bet on the slate was thought to be the under for the Blackhawks and Flames. This bet looked to be in the bag before a pair of last-minute goals pushed the final to 4-3 for Calgary, breaking the hearts of Corsica and DFO readers everywhere.
With eleven games on tap tonight, there are plenty of spots to like. I’ve highlighted Corsica’s most likely and valuable bets below. You can find predictions for all of tonight’s games here. Good luck!
Highest Probability
Hurricanes @ Islanders – Spread | CAR +1.5 (-264)
The Hurricanes are one of the best 5v5 teams in the NHL, so it’s no surprise to see Corsica showing them some love tonight. Carolina ranks first in the NHL in 5v5 shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger chances per 60. They’ve absolutely dominated the puck at even strength but are plagued by the worst 5v5 SH% in the league at just 5.82%. Their luck is bound to turn sooner or later, and Corsica is putting their money on the former.
On the flip side, the Islanders have been one of the more fortunate teams in the NHL this season. Their 5v5 splits are underwhelming, and their record is heavily-inflated by the third-best PDO in the NHL. If their goaltending at all starts to slip, then things could start to get ugly in a hurry for the Isles. In net for them tonight is Thomas Greiss. The veteran netminder is playing out of his mind this season, posting a .917 SV% and a 12-7-1 record. He started to drift back down to Earth in his last start when he allowed three goals on 17 shots before being pulled in favour of Robin Lehner. Greiss is a mediocre goalie at best and will have a hard time holding up against the barrage of shots the Hurricanes are going to throw at him tonight. Corsica gives this bet a probability of 75.58%.
Highest Value
Blue Jackets @ Lightning – Over/Under | Under 6.5 (+110)
With eleven games to choose from, tonight’s high-value play comes with a greater degree of certainty. Corsica gives this game a 61.49% chance of finishing under 6.5 goals. While it features plenty of star power on either side, the story of tonight’s game between the Lightning and Blue Jackets is the goaltending. The newest addition to the Atlantic Division All-Star team, Andrei Vasilevskiy is having another lights-out season for the Lightning. He owns a .920 SV% and a 16-4-2 record on the season. Saturday’s loss against the Sharks brought an end to a six-game winning streak for Vasilevskiy. He’s allowed two goals or less in 13 of his 22 starts this season and will almost certainly do his part in making sure this game hits the under tonight.
The Blue Jackets will counter with Sergei Bobrovsky in goal this evening. The two-time Vezina trophy winner has looked off at times this season but remains a calming force in Columbus’ crease. He will be looking for some redemption tonight after the Bolts lit him up for eight goals on 31 shots on October 13. We’ll need to see a more characteristic performance from Bobrovsky tonight if this high-value play is going to hit.