DailyFaceoff/Corsica NHL Bets (November 27th)

The Corsica NHL betting predictions nearly missed out on another perfecting outing on Monday. With the Senators and Rangers combining for just six goals, Corsica nailed it’s highest-value pick. Surprisingly enough, the most probable bet where was the predictions faltered. Corsica gave the Bruins a 69.87% chance of staying within a goal of the Maple Leafs last night. Boston played Toronto tight all night long but was robbed of covering the spread by a late empty-netter, courtesy of Zach Hyman. Hyman buried his fourth goal of the season on a yawning cage with just under two minutes to play, securing a 4-2 victory for the Maple Leafs. This post now sits at 31-18 (63.3%) on the season.

With ten games on the slate tonight, there are plenty of good spots to choose from. I’ve highlighted Corsica’s highest value and probability picks below, in an effort to help you all win a little bit of money. Good luck!

Highest Probability

Kings @ Canucks – Spread | LAK +1.5 (-285)

According to Corsica, you won’t find a more certain bet on tonight’s slate than the Kings covering a +1.5-goal spread against the Canucks. Corsica gives the Kings a whopping 77.72% chance of staying within a goal of the Canucks tonight. It’s a rare situation where the analytics and underlying numbers are actually in favour of the 2018-19 Los Angeles Kings. The Kings’ struggles this season are well-documented, but the Canucks haven’t done enough to warrant a -1.5-goal spread.

The two teams just played in a tightly-contested affair in Los Angeles on Saturday. The game was tied with less than ten minutes remaining when Elias Pettersson broke the dead-lock. Tyler Motte tacked on a late empty-netter on route to a 4-2 victory for Vancouver. The win snapped an eight-game losing streak for the Canucks. So long as they avoid a similar late-game collapse tonight, the Kings should have no problem keeping this one close.

Highest Value

Senators @ Flyers – Over/Under | Under 6.5 (+115)

As I’ve highlighted in this post before, the Senators are creating their offense in unsustainable ways. Posting the second-highest 5v5 SH% in the league has allowed them to score a boatload of goals despite generating shots and scoring chances at an abysmal rate. Corsica is expecting the bottom to fall out sooner than later, and you’ll see it reflected in their predictions until the regression starts to take place. While the Flyers may go off against McKenna tonight, the Senators don’t project to create enough chances to keep up. It’s a little unnerving betting on these two goaltenders, but the numbers don’t lie.