DailyFaceoff/Corsica NHL Bets (November 30th)

A 27-save shutout performance from Craig Anderson foiled Corscia’s NHL betting predictions bid at a perfect night on Thursday. The Rangers fell behind early and never came close to covering the +1.5-goal spread, Corsica’s most probable bet of the night. Fortunately for our readers, Anderson’s strong performance and the lackluster nature of the Senators’ offense meant this game never even flirted with hitting the over at 6.5 goals.

With just five games on the slate tonight, there aren’t a lot of obvious spots to target. I’ve highlighted Corsica’s most probable and valuable bets below, good luck!

For more information on how Corsica generates these predictions, click HERE.

Highest Probability

Blues @ Avalanche – Spread | STL +1.5 (-180)

Keep in mind that on just a five-game slate, Corsica’s most probable bet is less of a slam dunk than it is on busier nights. Still, Corsica likes the Blues tonight enough to give them a 69.88% chance of covering a +1.5-goal spread against the Avalanche. While Colorado’s top line is terrifying to take on at home and the goaltending skews heavily in the Avs’ favour, this should still be a pretty tight game at even strength. If Jake Allen’s struggles this season weren’t so prevalent, we would probably be talking about this game as a coin flip. If the Blues can get a half-decent performance out of him the +1.5-goal spread is pretty much a lock.

The Avalanche boast the best PP% in the league coming into tonight’s game but are up against a stout penalty-killing team in the Blues. St. Louis has also taken the fifth-least minor penalties in the league this season. Their discipline could be the key to blanking the Avs’ mighty power-play and keeping this game close.

Highest Value

Kings @ Flames – Moneyline | LAK (+201)

While Corsica gives them just a 40.64% chance of pulling it off, no bet will offer you better bang for your buck tonight than the Kings on the moneyline. Calgary’s depth up front gives them a distinct advantage over the Kings at 5v5, but recent trends suggest the Kings have the upper-hand in goal. Cal Petersen is expected to be in net the for Kings tonight after Jonathan Quick got the nod last night in Edmonton. Petersen has outperformed the Kings’ wildest expectations so far this season, posting a .927 SV% and 2.46 GAA in eight appearances. He’s won his last two starts and allowed just one goal on 33 shots against the Canucks on Tuesday.

On the flip side of things, Mike Smith is expected to be in goal for the Flames tonight. David Rittich’s grip on the starting job keeps getting stronger as Smith turns in one poor performance after another. In Smith’s defense, he had arguably his best start of the season last time out against the Coyotes, stopping 28 of 29 shots on route to a 6-1 victory. Still, it’s hard to imagine the 36-year-old netminder experiencing a renaissance in goal anytime soon. The lopsided goaltending matchup should afford the Kings a lot of leeway in this one.