DFS Lines To Target: 10/21/19

The NHL is back in action tonight with a typically slow Monday night. With four games on the slate, the options are a bit limited, but there’s still plenty of value out there. I’ve highlighted my top high-priced, medium-priced, and value stacks below. Good luck!

High-Priced

Vegas 2 – @Max Pacioretty ($7,000), @Paul Stastny ($5,100), Mark Stone ($7,500)

If you’re looking to spend big tonight, Vegas 2 is your best bet. Pacioretty, Stastny, and Stone create a ton of scoring chances at even strength, and they draw a great matchup tonight. The Flyers have opted to use the @Sean Couturier line against the opposition’s best on home ice. That should pin Couturier against the @William Karlsson line, leaving Vegas 2 free to dominate the depth of the Flyers. Their most common opponent should be Philadelphia’s top line of @Claude Giroux, @James van Riemsdyk, and @Jakub Voracek. The Flyers surrendered over 32 scoring and 13 high-danger chances per 60 when Giroux and JVR were on the ice at 5v5 together last season.

In this matchup, Vegas 2 should have no problem generating their usual, elite rate of offense. Dating back to last season, the three of them are averaging 33 scoring and 14 high-danger chances per 60. They also get the added boost of playing on the power-play together. All three of them currently feature on the Golden Knights’ top power-play unit alongside @Shea Theodore and @Cody Glass. They offer as much upside as any line on the slate.

Medium-Priced

St. Louis 1 – @Jaden Schwartz ($4,500), @Brayden Schenn ($6,100), @Vladimir Tarasenko ($6,600)

St. Louis’ top line remains productive in all situations, and their sky-high usage gives them a high-floor tonight against the Avs. With all three of them currently playing over 17 minutes a game, Schwartz, Schenn, and Tarasenko will have plenty of opportunities to return value tonight. Based off the Blues recent line matching trends, St. Louis 1 projects to see a mix of Colorado’s top-six at 5v5 tonight. Colorado 1 is far from an ideal matchup, but St. Louis 1 is more than capable of keeping pace with @Nathan MacKinnon and company. The Blues top line owns a 56.00 SCF% and a 57.14 HDCF% on the season.

Where they should really do damage tonight is against the @Nazem Kadri line. The new-look Colorado 2 has stumbled out of the gate, averaging just 24 scoring chances for per 60 while surrendering 32. Kadri, @Andre Burakovsky, and @Joonas Donskoi will have a difficult time staying out of their own end against the Schenn line. The impending matchup with the MacKinnon line caps their upside, but at $17,200 for the full stack, you’re still getting a lot of value out St. Louis 1 tonight. If you’re looking to a pair a defenseman with them, @Vince Dunn is a solid play. He plays with all three of them on the top power-play unit and is priced at just $3,900 tonight.

Value Stack

Dallas 1 – @Jason Dickinson ($3,700), @Tyler Seguin ($7,200), @Joe Pavelski ($4,100)

Thanks to some timely line shuffling, perhaps no line offers more value tonight than Dallas 1. Pavelski spent the last few games buried in the Stars bottom-six, which helped drive his price all the way down to $4,100. Pavelski’s promotion to the top line couldn’t have come at a better time. Though he’s priced as a third-liner, he’ll be playing on line one against a terrible defensive team in the Senators. To nobody’s surprise, Ottawa has been straight-up outplayed at 5v5 this season. The team owns a 46.87 CF%, a 45.96 SCF%, and a 44.79 HDCF%. The Seguin line should see a mix of the Sens top-nine tonight, giving them a more than favourable matchup spread.

Joining Seguin and Pavelski on the top line will be Jason Dickinson. Dickinson and Seguin put up some ugly numbers in a small sample together last season, but Pavelski, a typically strong possession player, should help correct those numbers. If you’re not hurting for value, feel free to leave Dickinson out in favour of a Seguin-Pavelski mini-stack. Dickinson doesn’t possess a lot of offensive upside and he won’t be joining Seguin and Pavelski for reps with the top power-play unit. @John Klingberg’s presence on that top unit makes him the obvious defenseman to pair with Seguin and Pavelski.