DFS Lines To Target: 10/23/19

DailyFaceoff’s DFS Lines To Target is back in action for tonight’s two-game slate. The options are incredibly limited, but there’s still some decent value out there. I’ve highlighted my top high-priced, mid-range, and value stacks below. Good luck!

High-Priced

Detroit 1 – @Tyler Bertuzzi ($5,500), @Dylan Larkin ($6,400), @Anthony Mantha ($6,800)

You rarely want to target teams on the tail-end of a back-to-back, but Detroit 1 is the exception to that rule tonight. Bertuzzi, Larkin, and Mantha have been outstanding at 5v5 together this season. They own a 54.75 CF% and average 32 scoring and 13 high-danger chances per 60. They should see a mix of the Senators dreadful top-nine tonight.

Ottawa’s 1-6-1 record is the result of some terrible 5v5 play. The team’s registered a 45.52 CF%, a 44.06 SCF%, and a remarkably low 41.44 HDCF%. The Larkin line should spend a ton of time in Ottawa’s end tonight regardless of which line they’re up against, and they should see plenty of power-play time as well. All three of them skate on Detroit’s top power-play unit, and the Senators are averaging over four minor penalties per game. On such a small slate, Detroit 1 is the obvious stack to build your lineup around.

Mid-Range

Tampa Bay 2 – @Ondrej Palat ($4,200), @Brayden Point ($6,200), @Yanni Gourde ($4,100)

Jon Cooper threw the Lightning lines into the blender ahead of tonight’s clash with the Penguins. After spending the early parts of the season on the top line with @Steven Stamkos and @Nikita Kucherov, Point finds himself now centering Palat and Gourde on line two. While that’s certainly a blow to his upside, he’s proven to be productive in this spot before. Point and Gourde played over 350 minutes at 5v5 together last season, averaging 29 scoring and 11 high-danger chances per 60. Tampa Bay 2 should have no problem generating that kind of offense tonight against Pittsburgh, and they offer solid value at $14,500 for the full stack.

Value

Ottawa 1 – @Brady Tkachuk ($6,300), @Logan Brown ($2,500), @Anthony Duclair ($3,400)

This might be the one time all year you see an Ottawa line listed in this post. While Detroit 1 will be a problem for Ottawa’s top line, they shouldn’t see more than a couple of minutes against each other. The majority of Ottawa 1’s minutes should come against Detroit’s lackluster, fatigued depth. Detroit is a top heavy team and their bottom three lines surrender a lot of scoring chances. A tired Detroit team might also be enough to awaken Ottawa’s dormant power-play. The Wings own the third-worst PK% in the league at an even 70%.

Tkachuk is the lone bright spot on this Sens team, and he’s in a great spot tonight. His hefty price tag is a lot easier to take on when you can tack on his two line-mates for an additional $5,900. Unsurprisingly, Tkachuk and Duclair did struggle defensively at 5v5 last season, but they were productive offensively. They averaged over 14 high-danger chances per 60. I’ll always be nervous about stacking the Sens, but with so little options on tonight’s slate, it’s hard to ignore the value here.