DFS Lines To Target: 10/28/19

DailyFaceoff’s DFS Lines To Target is back in action for Monday’s mini-slate. With just two games on tap the options are limited, but there’s still plenty of value out there tonight. I’ve highlighted my top high-priced, mid-range, and value stacks below. Good luck!

High-Priced

Vancouver 2 – @J.T. Miller ($6,200), @Elias Pettersson ($6,500), @Brock Boeser ($6,400)

Two-game slates can really limit the options in front of you, but I do love Vancouver’s “second” line tonight. The Canucks tend to use the @Bo Horvat and @Brandon Sutter lines against opposing top-sixes on home ice. That should free up the Pettersson line for some cushy 5v5 minutes against the depth of the Panthers. Their most common opponent should be the @Brian Boyle line. Unfortunately for Florida, Boyle isn’t the solid two-way player he once was. He hasn’t looked great with the Panthers, playing predominantly with @Brett Connolly on the third line. Florida is averaging 28 scoring chances against and just 13 scoring chances for with Boyle and Connolly on the ice.

Vancouver 2 projects to create plenty of shots and scoring chances in this matchup, giving them a high floor tonight. Adding to their upside is the power-play correlation. Miller, Boeser, and Petterson are all heavily-featured on the team’s top power-play unit.

Mid-Range

Arizona 1 – @Clayton Keller ($5,200), @Christian Dvorak ($4,700), @Phil Kessel ($5,400)

There is a bit of a discrepancy over who will be centering this line tonight, so you’ll need to pay close attention in warmups. @Brad Richardson, Arizona’s primary shutdown centre, missed Friday’s game with an upper-body injury and won’t play tonight, either. @Derek Stepan replaced him as the centre for @Michael Grabner and @Vinnie Hinostroza, while @Christian Dvorak jumped up to centre Arizona 1. The assumption is Dvorak will be there again tonight with Richardson ruled out, but we weren’t able to confirm that. There’s a chance Stepan is back with Arizona 1 tonight, but the Coyotes did win 5-3 on Friday, so it would make sense if the lineup remains the same.

Regardless of who lines up at centre, Arizona 1 should return value tonight. They should see Buffalo 1 at 5v5 tonight, a line that’s struggled to control the pace of play at even strength so far this season. They own a 44.33 CF% on the year. Ample offensive zone time gives Arizona 1 a very high floor tonight, making them a safe bet to return value. Stepan costs $300 less than Dvorak’s $4,700 price tag, so you can build a lineup with Dvorak and seamlessly make the change to Stepan in warmups if need be.

Value

Florida 2 – @Mike Hoffman ($5,600), @Denis Malgin ($3,600), @Frank Vatrano ($3,900)

On such a small slate, Florida 2 is the obvious value stack tonight. @Vincent Trocheck’s injury freed up plenty of top-six minutes, and both @Denis Malgin and @Frank Vatrano are taking advantage of it. Vatrano has a knack for getting the puck on net, making him a very strong value play at $3,900 given his current usage. He’s registered 18 shots on goal in his last six games to go along with three goals and two assists over that span. Malgin is in the midst of a five-game point streak, and Hoffman’s exclusion from the first line has helped drive his price tag back down within reason.

Most of Florida’s 2 5v5 minutes tonight should come against the Horvat line. Horvat is a strong two-way player in his own right, but he doesn’t have much help in terms of line-mates right now. He’s especially struggled with winger @Jake Virtanen at 5v5. Last year the two of them surrendered over 33 scoring and 14 high-danger chances per 60. Inversely, Malgin and Vatrano own a 63.36 CF% and a 69.09 SCF% together at 5v5 on the year. The lopsided matchup should be more than enough for this stack to return value tonight.