DFS Lines To Target: 12/09/19
It’s a typically quiet Monday night in the NHL, with just four games on the slate. I’ve gone over my top high-priced, mid-range, and value stacks below. Good luck!
High-Priced
Boston 1 – @Brad Marchand ($7,400), @Patrice Bergeron ($7,600), @David Pastrnak ($8,000)
It come as no surprise that Boston 1 is the top stacking option for tonight’s slate. After seeing their 5v5 numbers dip with @David Krejci playing the pivot, Marchand and Pastrnak will be reunited tonight with a healthy Patrice Bergeron. Boston’s terrifying trio will draw a lot of DFS attention for tonight’s clash against the Senators. Fading them, while tempting, is incredibly risky. The three of them should see plenty of quality chances at even strength, and their astronomical power-play production can singlehandedly break any slate.
Recent line-matching trends suggest the @Jean-Gabriel Pageau line will be assigned the impossible task of shutting down Boston 1 tonight. Pageau is in the midst of an offensive breakout and is an underrated two-way player, but Ottawa’s abysmal blue line really limits his defensive prowess. Pageau and line-mate @Brady Tkachuk are surrendering a robust 30 scoring and 11 high-danger chances per 60. It’s hard to imagine Boston 1 not going off in that matchup. Don’t overthink this one.
Mid-Range
Washington 1 – @Alex Ovechkin ($8,400), @Nicklas Backstrom ($5,000), @Tom Wilson ($5,000)
Like Marchand and Pastrnak, Ovechkin and Wilson should see a surge in 5v5 production with their usual centreman back in the lineup. Backstrom has proven to be a much more effective complement to Ovechkin than @Evgeny Kuznetsov at even strength. His return to the lineup means Washington 1 doesn’t need to rely solely on the power-play to return value. Washington 1 was matched against the opposition’s best line the last time Backstrom dressed for a home game, so I’m assuming that trend will resume tonight. That would set up the Capitals top line for an advantageous matchup against the @Alexandre Texier line. Texier has struggled to maintain meaningful puck possession as he’s bounced back and forward between the centre and wing position. Look for Ovechkin and company to expose the young centreman at 5v5 tonight.
Of course, the upside you’re really paying for here is the power-play production. The Capitals’ dynamic power-play matches up well against a Columbus team that has struggled on the penalty-kill. The Blue Jackets currently owned the league’s 13th-worst PK% at 79.3%. If you can find room for him in your budget, @John Carlson is the ideal addition to this stack.
Value
Calgary 3 – @Milan Lucic ($2,600), @Derek Ryan ($3,200), @Johnny Gaudreau ($6,000)
If you’re looking for value on tonight’s slate, there’s no better line to target than Calgary 3. Lucic and Ryan’s miniscule price tags don’t yet reflect the fact that Johnny Gaudreau is skating on their line. As you would expect, Calgary’s so-called third line has seen a lot more ice time since Gaudreau moved there. Both Lucic and Ryan played over 17 minutes last game, well above their season average. The early returns are more than promising for this seemingly mismatched trio. Gaudreau and Ryan proved to be an effective combination last season when they averaged 13 high-danger chances per 60 while surrendering just five to their opponents. They should see a mix of Colorado’s top-nine tonight, a more than favourable matchup spread for Calgary 3. I understand your reluctance to play Milan Lucic, but you won’t find a better value stack tonight.