Fantasy or Fiction: Do They Finish With 30 Goals?

After an inspiring column this week from our esteemed Editor-in-chief, Alexander Monaghan, entitled “Do They Finish With 50 Goals?”, I decided to take a closer look at some of the great underachieving performances from 2011-12 , to ask the question: will a number of the league’s perennial goal scorers be able to shake off their slow starts and salvage their season statistics for fantasy hockey owners?

Jarome Iginla, Calgary Flames

While it may appear on the surface that father time may have finally caught up with the 34-year-old Iginla, don’t necessarily be fooled by his slow start (17 GP, 5 G, 4A, -10 rating). It is worth noting that Iginla, who has registered an impressive 10 consecutive 30+ goal campaigns, had an equally slow first month-and-a-half to last season (10 PTS in first 17 GP), before turning it on in the second half to finish with 43 goals and 86 points. Projection: 36 goals.

Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals

The big question everyone seems to be asking is, “What’s wrong with Ovechkin?” Well, if you look at his stats, you’ll notice diminishing returns dating back five seasons. Fantasy owners have watched a steady decline in Ovechkin’s goal scoring totals year after year over that span – 65 in ’07-’08, 56 in ’08-’09, 50 in ’09-’10, 32 last season, and only seven so far in 2011-12 (all coming on the road). A decrease in his overall ice time this season, combined with fewer shots reaching the net (According to Yahoo! Sports, Ovechkin has taken 39 shots that have been blocked this season, and 27 more have missed the net) are certainly attributable factors. Projection: 35 goals.

Eric Staal, Carolina Hurricanes

His offensive output this year (18 GP, 4 G, 4 A, -17 rating) has been, well, offensive. It’s gotten so bad recently that Head Coach Paul Maurice is experimenting with moving All-Star centre to the wing in hopes of sparking Staal. After having recorded 30+ goals in five of the last six seasons, the 27-year-old Staal, who should be entering his prime, is currently only on pace to record a measly 18 markers. And his NHL-worst plus-minus rating only adds insult to injury for fantasy owners. Projection: 25 goals.

Rick Nash, Columbus Blue Jackets

When Nash (4 G, 8 A, -12 rating) signed an eight-year, $62.4 million contract extension with the Blue Jackets back in 2009, the future seemed bright in Columbus. What a difference a couple of years has made for the franchise and their franchise player. Both are off to horrible starts; the team mired in last place in the West, while their captain has recorded zero goals, two assists and a minus-9 rating in his last five games. He’s on pace now for 19 goals, with his streak of four straight 30+ goal seasons in serious jeopardy, barring a trade out of Columbus this season. Fantasy owners can only hope that he and free agent bust Jeff Carter can find some chemistry together. And fast. Projection: 23 goals.

Ilya Kovalchuk, New Jersey Devils

Not since his rookie year has Kovalchuk managed to score less than 30 goals in a season, a streak of eight straight campaigns dating back to 2001-02. Yet, following a mediocre 2010-11 season (31 G, 60 PTS), injuries and an overall lacklustre game has slowed down the $100 million dollar man this year to the point where he’s on pace for a paltry 14 goals for the Devils. For fantasy owners, his return to the ice on New Jersey’s top line Wednesday night, after missing five games with a leg injury, is reason for optimism that the Russian sniper can turn things around. Projection: 28 goals.

Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins

Good news Crosby owners. After nearly a year, the wait finally appears to be over. It looks like Sid the Kid will be back in the Penguins lineup by next week. Optimists might say Crosby’s presented himself with a new challenge, offering fellow NHLers a 20-game head start for the league scoring title. Pessimists have legitimate concerns if Crosby will be able to regain his All-World form of the past few years. In only 41 games last season – or 50% of the year – Crosby scored 32 goals. So how many will he score in 60 games this year? Projection: 32 goals.
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Out of this group, who do you think will finish with the highest/lowest goal totals this season?

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Follow Dan following Fantasy Hockey and the NHL this season on Twitter @Dan_Berlin