Fantasy or Fiction: Should I Pick Up Sam Gagner?

In fantasy hockey circles this morning, Sam Gagner is trending. Big time.

The Edmonton Oilers forward had a night for the ages Thursday at Rexall Place, recording a whopping eight points – 4 goals, 4 assists – in the Oilers 8-4 shellacking of the Blackhawks.

As a result, Gagner joins some pretty exclusive company in the NHL record books, tying Wayne Gretzky and Paul Coffey for the franchise record for most points scored in an NHL game (Gretz did it twice). The 22-year-old also becomes the first player in 22 years to perform the feat, when Pittsburgh’s Mario Lemieux collected eight points in a playoff game vs. the Flyers on April 25, 1989 (Toronto’s Darryl Sittler holds the all-time NHL record with 10 points in one game, back on February 7, 1976).

Overnight, Gagner’s fantasy rank on Yahoo! shot up over 100 spots to No. 172, and he now sits atop the weekly “Who’s Hot” list. Owned by a mere 7% of fantasy teams heading into Thursday’s record-setting tilt, many owners were quick to add the former 2007 first-round pick on Friday morning, boosting his ownership to 9%.

Hey, not so fast. One game does not a fantasy player make.

If you were one of the 7% to have had Gagner on your active roster vs. the Hawks, consider yourself lucky. You might’ve had better odds of winning the state lottery. Gagner, whose eight-point night was just the 16th in NHL history, entered Thursday’s game vs. Chicago with only five goals (and 21 points) for the entire season. He had managed just two points in his previous nine contests, and had been held without a goal in his previous 11 games.

Prior to Thursday, Gagner was on pace for 37 points for the 2011-12 season. Now, with nine goals and 30 points in 44 games, he’s on pace for 51. Realistically, the fifth-year forward is going to finish somewhere in between, closer to his career averages of 15 goals and 29 assists recorded over his first four seasons with the Oilers.

So don’t get fooled. Despite putting his name in the record books along with some of the NHL’s all-time greats, Gagner’s spectacular single night must be put in the proper perspective. Back in 1977, a guy by the name of Tom Bladon with Philadelphia also scored eight points in one game, just the fourth player at that time to ever do it. Truth is, you don’t hear too much about Tommy boy these days. And chances are, after this season, you won’t hear all that much talk about Gagner’s feats either.

For one night, Sam Gagner sits atop the fantasy world. Just don’t get fooled into thinking that it will last.