Line Matching: October 17th
There’s an 11-game slate tonight, which means lots of areas to look at for 5v5 line-matching. Unfortunately, that means the 3rd- and 4th-lines will get ignored unless relevant (i.e. PIT-NYR), and there will be a few games tonight where the home team doesn’t line-match.
Rangers vs. Penguins
| Pittsburgh | New York Rangers | Advantage |
| PIT3 (Hagelin-McKegg-Hornqvist) | NYR1 (Nash-Zibanejad-Zuccarello) | NYR1: McKegg has been bad in his short career, sub 45% in CF%/SF%/SCF%/HDSC%. With Hagelin on his line (28m), McKegg’s been on for 11 SCA and 15 SOG. |
| PIT1 (Guentzel-Crosby-Sheary) | NYR2 (Kreider-Desharnais-Miller) | PIT1: In a very small sample with JT Miller (18 minutes), Desharnais has seen positive possession but allowed a scoring chance every 2 minutes of 5v5. Don’t expect him to hold down arguably the best player in the league. |
| PIT2 (Rust-Malkin-Kessel) | NYR3 (Vesey-Hayes-Fast) | Even: Hayes is an excellent shutdown centre, allowing only one shot attempt/minute alongside Vesey and typically winning the SF% and SC%. |
| Conclusion: With Alain Vigneault changing his lines, this analysis could see some changes; Zibanejad’s last two games saw him getting mixed minutes, but against NJ he spent most of his time against the Devils’ third line once he was paired with Mats Zuccarello. Desharnais hadn’t seen enough 5v5 minutes at home until that last game, but he mostly faced off against NJ1 so in a 2nd line centre role, expect that to continue. The best play from this game would be PIT1, and PIT2 can be safely ignored. |
Flyers vs. Panthers
| Florida | Philadelphia | Advantage |
| Conclusion: The Flyers have only a one-game sample of home games this year so it’s still a question where they line up tonight. In their game against Washington, PHI1 (Couturier) saw even minutes against both WSH1 and WSH2, and the expectation would be for that to continue. That will also even for the minutes for FLA1/FLA2 against PHI2 (Filppula) – who have gotten caved in against tough matchups (SJ1, NSH1) so any time FLA1/2 gets against them should be high-event. |
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs
| Toronto | Washington | Advantage |
| TOR2 (vanRiemsdyk-Bozak-Brown) | WSH1 (Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Vrana) | TOR2: The Caps’ top line has been poor defensively through their first six games (43% CF for Kuznetsov), while the Bozak line gets a defensive boost with Connor Brown in for Marner. Brown is also averaging 1 SC every 2 minutes and more importantly in 20 minutes less than Marner has out-chanced him in High-Danger. |
| TOR1 (Nylander-Matthews-Hyman) | WSH2 (Burakovsky-Backstrom-Oshie) | Even: This will be the strength-on-strength matchup of the game, so much like WSH-NJ from last week, target the high-shooting % players on these lines (AM34/Oshie) but the ice won’t be tilted one way or the other. |
| TOR3 (Marleau-Kadri-Komarov) | WSH3 (Connolly-Graovac-Wilson) | TOR3: Expect Kadri to see as little of Washington’s top competition as possible, as Trotz tries to avoid the strong two-way play of TOR3. That gives Kadri’s line a huge advantage against a young line – Graovac got pasted in Minnesota last season (39.49% CF% in 52 games). |
| Conclusion: There’s a lot to like on the Toronto side of the puck tonight, especially Kadri/Marleau and Connor Brown/JVR. These forward line matches won’t even offer the full picture, as Washington’s defense features an atrocious pair (Orpik/Bowey) that should get the TOR2 line as Trotz is smart enough to avoid getting them out against Matthews. |
Devils vs. Lightning
| Tampa Bay | New Jersey | Advantage |
| TB1 (Namestnikov-Stamkos-Kucherov) | NJ1 (Hall-Hischier-Stafford) | TB1: The Stamkos line is essentially match-up proof. With NJ going power-on-power at home, TB1 gets a rookie who’s given up 31 scoring chances in 50 minutes of 5v5 and been on for 37 shots against. |
| TB2 (Palat-Point-Gourde) | NJ2 (Johansson-Henrique-Palmieri) | NJ2: Point’s line has allowed 42 shots against at 5v5 in just over an hour together, and are sub-50% in every puck possession category. |
| Conclusion: They’re expensive and will continue to be expensive, but even on a back-to-back, don’t expect the TB1 train to stop rolling. NJ2 will be the low-owned play in this game that could pop, facing a Brayden Point line that can’t stop anything and Tampa’s probable starter being Peter Budaj. |
Senators vs. Canucks
| Vancouver | Ottawa | Advantage |
| Conclusion: Kyle Turris matched up exclusively against WSH2 in their home game but saw mixed minutes against Detroit, so there’s not much info to go on for how Ottawa will set up tonight. OTT1 (Brassard) played most of their minutes (in Vancouver) against the Canucks’ bottom-6, so Guy Boucher could look to exploit that after their success out West – OTT1 picked up double digit shot attempts against Dorsett and Sutter. If targeting anyone in this game, OTT1 would be the play. |
Predators vs. Avalanche
| Colorado | Nashville | Advantage |
| Conclusion: NSH1 has barely been line-matched in their two home games, shading slightly towards a top line matchup against the Flyers but seeing the least amount of time against DAL1 in their game. If anything, this will be a game to consider a low-owned goalie (either side) or a special teams stack (also either side). |
Jets vs. Blue Jackets
| Columbus | Winnipeg | Advantage |
| CBJ1 (Panarin-Wennberg-Atkinson) | WPG1 (Ehlers-Scheifele-Wheeler) | CBJ1: The Jets prefer to match Scheifele up against the opposition’s top line, which in this case will be a tough ask: Wennberg has been dominant alongside Panarin & Atkinson, outshooting the opposition 43-26 at 5v5 through an hour of ice time. The Jets’ top line has been high-event (0.5 scoring chances both for and against/minute) so CBJ1 are in a great position tonight. |
| CBJ2 (Milano-Foligno-Bjorkstrand) | WPG2 (Connor-Little-Laine) | Even: WPG2 has won the scoring chance battles in their time together but have lost the puck possession, and with Kyle Connor replacing Mathieu Perreault this matchup will be a question mark. CBJ2 conversely has won puck possession but lost the scoring chances. |
| Conclusion: CBJ1 is incredibly attractive tonight, while the 2nd line of the Jets has an even match-up but should create some opportunities to put the puck in the net. Avoid the first line of Winnipeg. |
Stars vs. Coyotes
| Arizona | Dallas | Advantage |
| ARI1 (Domi-Stepan-Keller) | DAL1 (Benn-Seguin-Radulov) | DAL1: Ken Hitchcock trusts his first line to go against the opposition’s best, which means they’ll see Derek Stepan. ARI1 has performed incredibly well in their hour together at out-attempting other teams, but have allowed 33 scoring chances against in that time. In DAL1’s time together, they’ve put up 39 scoring chances including 20(!) high-danger. |
| ARI2 (Crouse-Dvorak-Fischer) | DAL2 (Janmark-Spezza-Ritchie) | DAL2: The Spezza/Janmark duo have been incredible in a short time together, sitting above 55% in every puck possession category. Conversely, the Fischer/Dvorak group have allowed double digit scoring chances in only 25 minutes together, even though they’ve also been positive in shots (and attempts) for. |
| Conclusion: With Adin Hill going for the Coyotes tonight, expect lots of ownership to come Dallas’ way. The low-owned exposure to this game will be targeting DAL2 – or using Spezza as a single bullet – but the top line for the Stars should get many, many scoring opportunities tonight. |
Oilers vs. Hurricanes
| Carolina | Edmonton | Advantage |
| CAR1 (Aho-Staal-Lindholm) | EDM1 (Maroon-McDavid-Yamamoto) | EDM1: The Staal line has given up a boat load for shots against and scoring chances against (~0.7/minute), and against Connor McDavid will be in tough tonight. |
| CAR2 (Teravainen-Rask-Williams) | EDM2 (Lucic-NugentHopkins-Strome) | CAR2: In two of their three home games, EDM2 matched up against the best possession line of the opposing team. If that should continue, CAR2 should be able to generate some scoring chances, as they’ve been absolutely dominant through 35 minutes together. |
| Conclusion: CAR2 makes an interesting low-owned stack tonight against Laurent Brossoit, even as they’ll have a tough possession battle against Nugent-Hopkins. Connor McDavid should do Connor McDavid things against a fairly disappointing first line for the Hurricanes. |
Golden Knights vs. Sabres
| Buffalo | Vegas | Advantage |
| Conclusion: Vegas hasn’t line-matched at all in their home games this year. No clear advantage on either side of this game. |
Sharks vs. Canadiens
| Montreal | San Jose | Advantage |
| Conclusion: San Jose doesn’t line match at home. Expect SJ1 to match up almost equally against MTL1 and MTL2; if there’s any advantage in this game it will be in the Sharks’ bottom-6. |