Making the Case for Perry and Getzlaf
When analyzing pre-draft rankings, we always notice a few perplexing ratings that leave us wondering why on earth Yahoo! (in this particular instance) would even consider such a far-off ranking. Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf get the luxury of being our shoulder-shrug rankings of the year and, in turn, your steal in the draft.
Ryan Getzlaf, the powerhouse top-line centre and main offensive driver of the Ducks ranks in at an O-Rank of 30. That puts him right around the territory of Henrik Zetterberg and Jeff Carter in the overall center rankings. If you’re drafting either Zetterberg or Carter ahead of Getzlaf (or even Jason Spezza at O-Rank 25) you are putting your season at risk. Getzlaf’s point-per-game rating for the past 3 years starting with the most recent season is 1.15, 1.12, and 1.06 not to mention a healthy amount of PIMs and powerplay points in each season. Zetterberg over the same timeframe offers .95, .95, and 1.23 with far fewer PIMs, while Carter notches .82, 1.02, and .65. The main point is that Getzlaf was nearly unanimously a first round pick last season and after missing 16 games in 2009-10 due to injury and showing a decrease in goal production, gets knocked down to the end of the third round.
Corey Perry, Getzlaf’s right-hand man, faces a similar issue in 2010-11, getting an O-Rank of 43. Perry was also a late top-round pick last season and is going a full round after Getzlaf – near the end of the 4th round – behind the likes of Jarome Iginla and Rick Nash. Iginla and Nash are superstars, don’t get me wrong, but they both lack the prime benefit of a bona fide number one center. Perry’s numbers surely took a hit last season with Getzlaf out for 16 games but comparing his last three seasons’ point-per-game totals, .93, .92, and .77 with each season totaling over 100 PIMs. Nash’s last three seasons look more like .88, 1.01, .86 with far fewer PIMs, while Iginla saw a real dropoff last season at 69 points in 82 games and consistently fewer PIMs.
Moral of the story? Don’t be the sucker taking Jason Spezza or Rick Nash over Anaheim’s proven scoring tandem just because they are undervalued in Yahoo!’s pre-draft rankings.