Necas and Oettinger lead seven Offer Sheet Candidates for 2022 NHL Offseason

Last summer, an NHL player was successfully poached via an offer sheet for the first time since 2007, way back when Dustin Penner went from the Edmonton Oilers to the Anaheim Ducks.

This time, it was Jesperi Kotkaniemi going from the Montreal Canadiens to the Carolina Hurricanes on a one-year, $6.1 million contract that netted Montreal first and third-round picks. They found the poison pill, a one-year deal with a number way above what Kotkaniemi would have otherwise earned. On the first day eligible in March, Kotkaniemi promptly signed an eight-year, $38.6 million deal that makes him the Hurricanes’ second line center of the future.

Should we expect more poaching this summer? History would suggest not. There have been just 10 offer sheets signed in the 16 offseasons of the salary cap era – and only two have been successful.

But Kotkaniemi’s was the second offer sheet tabled in three summers, and with a flat salary cap squeezing most clubs, now might be the best time to strike with limited money to be dished out to deserving and key restricted free agents.

The compensation brackets for offer sheets has also increased to the point where it’s possible to make a solid player an offer without being crushed on the draft picks required.

For the 2022 offseason, the breakdown is as follows, as per CapFriendly.com:

Average Annual Value	Compensation
$1,386,490 or lower	No pick
$1,386,491 to $2,100,472	3rd round pick
$2,100,473 to $4,201,488	2nd round pick
$4,201,489 to $6,302,230	1st and 3rd round picks
$6,302,231 to $8,402,975	1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks
$8,402,976 to $10,503,720	Two 1st round picks, one 2nd and one 3rd round pick
$10,503,721 or higher	Four 1st round picks

Note: AAV for offer sheet is determined by dollars divided by term, maximum of five years.

Opposing teams may begin to talk with Restricted Free Agents on July 12, but no player is able to sign an offer sheet until July 13.

Let’s have a little fun. The usual caveats apply. Knowing full well that offer sheets are rare, that the player must be willing to sign it, and that one team needs to be the aggressor in offering it, let’s take a look at seven potential offer sheet candidates:

1. Martin Necas
Right Wing, Carolina Hurricanes
Age: 23
Stats: 78 GP, 14 G, 26 A, 40 points
Pending RFA, Career Earnings: $3.046 million
Scoop: It doesn’t quite feel like this feud between the Canes and Canadiens is over, does it? First Sebastian Aho, then revenge with Kotkaniemi. Sure, there is a new regime in Montreal. But it’s the same owner, and the the same Montreal fan base, and they both have long memories. Carolina is in a bit of a cap bind. They have $19 million to spend on seven players. Montreal has money to play with, especially if Carey Price is going to be out. Necas certainly fits Montreal’s age range. They’ve got a bevy of picks. Could you imagine if Montreal repays the favor and lands the better player? We’re here for that chaos.

2. Jake Oettinger
Goaltender, Dallas Stars
Age: 23
Stats: 48 GP, 2.52 GAA, .914 Sv%
Pending RFA, Career Earnings: $1.89 million
Scoop: Oettinger’s playoff performance was the stuff of legend. Amazingly, HockeyViz.com calculated that Oettinger’s workload in Round 1 – with 272 saves on 285 shots (.954 Sv%) – was roughly equivalent to what Darcy Kuemper faced in the entire Avalanche run (386 shots) when factoring in high-danger chances. To this point, the Stars and Oettinger have made little progress on a new deal. Jason Robertson also needs an expensive second contract. What would it take to pry out a 23-year-old elite goaltender who can man your crease for the next decade? Here are the teams that would sign up: Edmonton, Toronto, Montreal, Washington, Chicago, Seattle, Ottawa, San Jose, New Jersey, Arizona, Buffalo, Anaheim. All of them.

3. Rasmus Sandin
Left Defense, Toronto Maple Leafs
Age: 22
Stats: 51 GP, 5 G, 11 A, 16 Pts
Pending RFA, Career Earnings: $1.88 million
Scoop: Sandin probably isn’t the first player you think of when you think about offer sheets, but an opportunity exists to get a quality player who can slide into your top six. Toronto’s cap crunch is obvious. Every $100,000 counts for the Leafs. With a new two-year, $1.4 million AAV deal for Timothy Liljegren, you can ballpark that Sandin is roughly in the same neighborhood for pay, though they play on opposite sides. An untimely regular season injury made him an easy candidate for healthy scratch in the playoffs, but the Leafs still view Sandin as having more upside than Liljegren. It probably wouldn’t take that much for the Leafs to walk away (by necessity). Would a one-year deal at $4.2 million be enough to get the job done? Compensation would be just a second-round pick. Even if it doesn’t work, for a division or conference rival, it would complicate life for the Leafs.

4. Eetu Luostarinen
Center, Florida Panthers
Age: 23
Stats: 78 GP, 9 G, 17 A, 26 Pts
Pending RFA, Career Earnings: $2.05 million
Scoop: In the wake of Anthony Duclair’s unfortunate Achilles tear, which may keep him out all season, the heat is probably off a bit for a Luostarinen offer sheet. They’d have $3 million in LTIR space to play with. Nonetheless, GM Bill Zito has his work cut out for him given that there is going to be $6.6 million in dead cap space on the books next season thanks to the Keith Yandle buyout. Trading Patric Hornqvist would help. Luostarinen had a solid year and still has room in his game to grow. Will he get that opportunity in Florida with a few talented centers ahead of him? That might also make him decent trade fodder.

5. Noah Dobson
Right Defense, New York Islanders
Age: 22
Stats: 80 GP, 13 G, 38 A, 51 Pts
Pending RFA, Career Earnings: $2.72 million
Scoop: Is anyone brave enough to attempt to poach a player from Lou Lamoriello? It has happened three times (Brendan Shanahan, Troy Crowder and Scott Stevens) and Lamoriello has won huge every time. His Devils were awarded Scott Stevens on the Shanahan attempt, two-time Cup winner Randy McKay on the Crowder attempt, and $1.425 million in cash and a 1st round pick for tampering on the Stevens attempt. You can almost envision Lamoriello hitting the brazen-enough GM in the head with a shovel and burying him. Still, there is no bigger piece of offseason business for the Islanders than Dobson, and 50-point defensemen at that age do not grow on trees.

6. Sean Durzi
Right Defense, Los Angeles Kings
Age: 23
Stats: 64 GP, 3 G, 24 A, 27 Pts
Pending RFA, Career Earnings: $1.05 million
Scoop: At first glance, you’d look at the Kings’ salary cap picture and say Los Angeles doesn’t have a cap crunch. That would be true, at least for next season, but the Kings – like every team – have to be thinking three to five years down the line with the talent they have coming in their system. How does Durzi fit into that mix over the long haul? He burst onto the scene with a strong rookie season, collecting 27 points, and another three in seven playoff games. Durzi was edged out by Alexandre Carrier and Jamie Drysdale for the All-Rookie team but received votes. He’s mobile, right-shooting and has the confidence to be a difference-maker in today’s NHL.

7. Nicolas Roy
Center, Vegas Golden Knights
Age: 25
Stats: 78 GP, 15 G, 24 A, 39 Pts
Pending RFA, Career Earnings: $2.32 million
Scoop: No team is in more prohibitive salary cap hell than the Golden Knights, who are actively working to move contracts to create some flexibility. Roy had a breakout, 15-goal campaign and is due a raise that is likely in the neighborhood of a 4x multiple of the $750,000 he earned last season. Like Toronto, for instance, the Golden Knights won’t have the ability to match much beyond, say, $4.2 million, which only brings back a second-round pick. Since Vegas GM Kelly McCrimmon hasn’t made very many friends among his managing brethren, it’s probably fair to say that whatever unwritten ‘gentleman’s agreement’ might exist with some would not apply in this instance.

On The Radar: Kaapo Kakko, New York Rangers; Nicolas Hague, Vegas Golden Knights

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Necas and Oettinger lead seven Offer Sheet Candidates for 2022 NHL Offseason

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