Kill penalties – or be killed – if you want to win the Stanley Cup
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Can a Stanley Cup winner be distilled into a repeatable recipe?
It’s a question I ask every year after the NHL Trade Deadline passes as we reassess the league’s power structure based on which players changed teams. Is there a set list of ingredients a contending team can seek out and sprinkle into one pot every season to ensure a deep playoff run?
Last season, I laid out what I believed was a usable championship recipe by studying the previous 10 Stanley Cup winners. The recipe consisted of seven characteristics that were most common among the champions. It wasn’t as simple as just being good at everything. For instance, there wasn’t a strong correlation at all between having a good power play and winning the Cup.
Using the same parameters, which NHL roster has just the right mix of championship material this season?
I mentioned the power play as a weak correlating factor, but the opposite has previously been true for the penalty kill. Today, we continue the recipe series by looking back at how Stanley Cup winners have fared shorthanded during the regular season.
Stanley Cup Ingredient #5: Penalty Killing Efficiency
Here’s a look at the past 10 champions and how they performed at killing penalties over the regular-season sample size.
| Season | Champion | Penalty Kill % |
| 2012-13 | Chicago | 87.2% (3rd) |
| 2013-14 | Los Angeles | 83.1% (11th) |
| 2014-15 | Chicago | 83.4% (10th) |
| 2015-16 | Pittsburgh | 84.4% (5th) |
| 2016-17 | Pittsburgh | 79.8% (20th) |
| 2017-18 | Washington | 80.3% (15th) |
| 2018-19 | St. Louis | 81.5% (9th) |
| 2019-20 | Tampa Bay | 81.4% (14th) |
| 2020-21 | Tampa Bay | 84.2% (4th) |
| 2021-22 | Colorado | 79.7% (15th) |
So, above-average penalty killing is common among recent champs. Five of the past 10 ranked top-10, while nine of the past 10 sat in the top half of the league. Yet only three cracked the top five, suggesting you don’t necessarily need an elite P.K. It simply can’t be your Achilles heel. We’ve also seen teams with pedestrian penalty killing make late-season additions that improved them a lot, too. The 2019-20 Lightning landed Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow at the Trade Deadline and ended up killing penalties at 86.1 percent rate in the postseason.
But, as with every instalment of the exercise, we’re focusing more on the roster construction and performance within the regular season, a.k.a the part a GM can control. And there is a decent correlation between a good season-long penalty kill and an eventual Cup run – just not a powerfully strong correlation.
Stanley Cup correlation: Fair
Armed with the knowledge that a good penalty kill helps you and that a bad penalty kill is a major no-no for Cup contenders, let’s have a look at the 2022-23 team leaderboard.
2022-23 NHL leaders, penalty killing efficiency
1. Boston Bruins, 85.3%
2. Carolina Hurricanes, 84.0%
3. Dallas Stars, 83.0%
4. Winnipeg Jets, 82.9%
5. Ottawa Senators, 82.8%
6. Washington Capitals, 82.7%
7. San Jose Sharks, 82.7%
8. New Jersey Devils, 82.2%
9. New York Islanders, 81.9%
10. Calgary Flames, 81.7%
No surprise to see the Bruins, who are good at pretty much everything and boast the best defensive forward of all time, pacing the top 10, which includes six teams currently holding playoff spots.
The Edmonton Oilers and Seattle Kraken evidently have weaknesses to exploit, as they hold down playoff positions right now while sitting 25th and 28th, respectively, in penalty killing. Even since acquiring defenseman Mattias Ekholm, the Oilers are still bottom-third in the NHL since March 1 in shots and scoring chances allowed per 60 while shorthanded. The Kraken have a terrible P.K. but are also one of the least penalized teams in the NHL, mitigating the damage they take.
If there’s one playoff contender in major trouble? The Florida Panthers have to be careful. They have the league’s No. 27 penalty kill and lead the NHL in penalties taken per 60 minutes. It’s pretty clear how you’re going to beat them if you draw them as a first-round opponent.
Previous Stanley Cup Ingredients entries: Team Weight, Top-10 Scorer(s). Top-10 Goalie, Shot Attempt Share
Next up: Stanley Cup Rings
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