NHL DFS Showdown Breakdown: NYI vs. TBL (Game 3)

Updated: September 11, 2020 at 2:16 pm by Brock Seguin

With only one game on the NHL slate, all you have to play is DraftKings Showdown slate.

In Showdown you play six players, regardless of position, including one player as your “Captain.” Captains cost 1.5x their regular price but receive a 1.5x DraftKings point multiplier.

Below I have broken down every single player that is projected to play and whether or not you should play them on this Showdown slate.

Andrei Vasilevskiy — TBL ($10,800)

As -145 favourites, Vegas thinks there’s a good chance that Vasilevskiy gets the +6 point win bonus tonight even without Brayden Point and Alex Killorn. With the Islanders averaging just 26.0 shots per game, he doesn’t have the high-end upside that Semyon Varlamov has if he steals Game 3.

Nikita Kucherov — TBL ($10,600)

Kucherov was quiet for the majority of Game 2 but scored the game-winner with less than 10 seconds left and salvaging a 13.0 DK Point game. If Point can’t play, Kucherov will be leaned on to provide all the offence tonight. He will play huge minutes tonight and has been a safe bet for at least a point or two throughout the postseason.

Semyon Varlamov — NYI ($10,200)

The Islanders did a much better job in Game 2 but still couldn’t get Varlamov a win. He’s now winless in four straight games, giving up 16 goals on the last 110 shots (.855 SV%) that he’s faced. With the Lightning likely missing two of their top-6 forwards, Varlamov is an intriguing play option in Game 3.

Mathew Barzal — NYI ($9,200)

Barzal is a risky play at this price because he doesn’t shoot a lot, giving him a really shaky floor if he doesn’t get on the scoreboard. The other two members of NYI1 are much better plays at their salaries.

Victor Hedman — TBL ($9,000)

Hedman was an absolute horse in Game 2 and is scorching hot right now. He has scored a goal in four straight games, posting four goals and three assists (seven points) over that stretch—averaging 21.9 DK Points in those games. After Killorn and Point left Game 2, Hedman joined Mikhail Sergachev on PP1, increasing his upside for Game 3 (if he stays on that unit). He’s probably the best play on this slate.

⚠️ Brayden Point — TBL ($8,800)

Point is questionable to play, so monitor his status during warmups. If he plays, you should get him a low-ownership but there’s always a chance he leaves the game again.

Brock Nelson — NYI ($8,600)

Nelson was banged up in Game 2 but is expected to play tonight. If he’s fully healthy, he’ll get back to 18 minutes and has been a safe option throughout the postseason. Before being held without a shot in Game 2, Nelson had been averaging 2.9 shots in his last 10 games.

Anders Lee — NYI ($8,200)

Lee hit the five-shot bonus in Game 2, the fifth time he’s done that in the playoffs. Since the start of the Washington series, Lee is averaging 3.8 shots and 0.5 goals per game. At $800 cheaper, he’s a better play than Barzal.

Ondrej Palat — TBL ($8,000)

With the Lightning down to nine forwards, Palat played nearly 22 minutes in Game 2. He’s sure to see massive minutes alongside Kucherov again tonight, making him an elite play at this price.

Anthony Beauvillier — NYI ($7,800)

After a red-hot month of August, where he scored seven goals with four assists (11 points) in 13 games, Beauvillier has gone cold in September. He has just one goal and 13 shots in his last five games. At $7,800, you can easily pair him with Nelson and have plenty of salary left-over to fit in Lightning like Kucherov and Hedman.

Ryan Pulock — NYI ($7,600)

Offence has dried up for Pulock as well. He has just no goals and two assists in his last 11 games but has made up for it with his shot-blocking. He’s averaging 1.8 shots and 2.7 blocks per game over that stretch, so he’s got a decent floor but you can find similar numbers among the much cheaper Isles’ defensemen.

Jordan Eberle — ($7,200)

Eberle had just five points and 1.9 shots per game in the first nine games of the playoffs but has picked things up since. He has one goal and seven assists (eight points) while averaging 3.1 shots per game in his last nine. He’s the best play among NYI1 forwards and this price makes him an intriguing captain pick.

Blake Coleman — TBL ($7,000)

Coleman and the rest of TBL3 will be elevated to TBL2 in Game 3, making all three of them much more intriguing.  His shot volume is not like it was in New Jersey but he hasn’t been playing top-6 minutes. With increased playing time tonight, Coleman has an outside chance at hitting the five-shot bonus.

Mikhail Sergachev — TBL ($6,800)

Sergachev is so frustrating. Playing on PP1, he showcased his high-end upside in Game 3 vs. the Bruins but has also been held pointless in 14 of the last 17 games. Even if he’s on the top PP with Hedman, Hedman sucks up most of Sergachev’s upside. Go Hedman in cash but Sergachev is a decent tournament dart-throw.

Josh Bailey — NYI ($6,400)

Bailey is quietly leading the Islanders in points this postseason but has just two goals and is averaging just 1.3 shots per game. His floor is so low he is a risky play but he also has six multi-point games, so he has good upside. He’s a tournament play but stay far away in cash.

Devon Toews — NYI ($6,000)

Toews is like the defensive version of Josh Bailey. He’s averaging under one shot per game and 1.7 blocks, so his floor isn’t great. However, if you are playing NYI2 in tournaments, he’s worth playing for the PP2 correlation.

Adam Pelech — NYI ($5,600)

There’s really no point in playing Pelech. He has no offensive upside and you can get the same thing or better in cheaper Islanders’ blueliners.

Anthony Cirelli — TBL ($5,400)

Cirelli is going to be a popular play tonight because we have him projected to play on the top line and top power-play unit. At $5,400, you can easily stack him with Kucherov, Hedman and Palat. He had a great regular season but has been quiet in the playoffs. Maybe he wakes up tonight? You’ll want some Cirelli exposure in GPPs.

Kevin Shattenkirk — TBL ($5,200)

Shattenkirk leads all Lightning defensemen in assists and has nine points (1G / 8A) in his last nine games. He’s a decent picot off of Hedman and makes a lot of sense with the new TBL2 if you’re going expensive on the Islanders side of the game.

Andy Greene — NYI ($5,000)

You are unlikely to get any points out of Greene but he has hit the three-block bonus in five out of the last six games, so he’s a solid D-punt.

Scott Mayfield — NYI ($4,800)

Mayfield was a great punt at the start of the postseason but hasn’t been the same in recent games. Greene is the safer play for just $200 more.

Tyler Johnson — TBL ($4,600)

Johnson will likely be playing with whoever comes into the Lightning lineup. His floor isn’t great and players like Coleman will likely eat most of the available minutes, leaving Johnson as a low-upside play.

Ryan McDonagh — TBL ($4,400)

McDonagh had a great pass on the game-winning goal in Game 2 and also hit the three-block bonus. He’s done that in three out of the last six games, so there is upside here but with very little power-play time, that upside is greatly limited.

Yanni Gourde — TBL ($4,200)

Gourde will play a lot more minutes tonight as 2C and comes in with three shots in three straight games. He’s been really good in the postseason and his line has terrific underlying numbers, making them an excellent value stack.

Nick Leddy — NYI ($4,000)

Leddy is the Islanders’ defenseman to play. He’s cheap and has been consistent in his last five games. He’s averaging 1.8 shots, 2.6 blocked shots and 10.6 DK Points per game over that stretch. With him playing on PP1 with NYI1, he’s a great way to save money while possessing a pretty sturdy floor.

Erik Cernak — TBL ($3,600)

With the Lightning playing seven defensemen, Cernak’s ice-time has been down and it is limiting his upside. His numbers have been very pedestrian and you’re better off playing the guy below him tonight.

Barclay Goodrow — TBL ($3,200)

Goodrow played over 19 minutes in Game 2 and will be near that mark again tonight. With increased minutes, Goodrow is probably the best value play on the slate. His shot volume leaves a lot to be desired but he blocks shots on the penalty kill and that stabilizes his floor.

Casey Cizikas — NYI ($3,000)

If you can’t fit Goodrow, Cizikas is a decent alternative. He’ll pick up a shot or two and a block, giving you a couple of DK Points but has no offensive upside.

Zach Bogosian — TBL ($2,800)

Bogosian fires a few shots per game, nothing more nothing less. With McDonagh back in the lineup, his playing time is way down and makes him a desperation dart throw.

Cal Clutterbuck — NYI ($2,400)


Mitchell Stephens — TBL ($2,200)

He’s a hard-working gritty forward but had just six points (3G /3A) in 38 NHL games this season, so he’s probably not an option tonight. If the Lightning make some surprises with their lines and he’s playing in the top-6, then maybe. Otherwise, nah.

Carter Verhaeghe — TBL ($2,000)

Verhaeghe had  82 points (34G / 48A) in 76 AHL games last year, so he has good offensive ability. I just question whether he plays enough minutes to get anything done tonight. If you’re playing all the top players and need someone at the minimum price, Verhaeghe is your guy (if he plays).

Pat Maroon — TBL ($2,000)

Even with injuries and suspensions, Maroon will likely remain on the fourth line. Verhaeghe has more offensive upside, so stick with him.

Leo Komarov — NYI ($2,000)

Moving on.

Luke Schenn — TBL ($2,000)

He played seven minutes in Game 2. Need I say more?

Brayden Coburn — TBL ($2,000)

Schenn may be the only player with less offensive upside. He has 0.0 DK Points in three out of his last four games.

Matt Martin — NYI ($2,000)

Do we really think he’s going to score two games in a row? The last two times he’s scored, he’s averaged 0.7 DK Points in the following game.

Cedric Paquette — TBL ($2,000)

Paquette could move up the lineup in the wake of the injuries but still doesn’t provide much in the way of offence.

Andrew Ladd — NYI ($2,000)

Playing next to Pageau and on PP2 gives Ladd some upside but has just three points in his last 12 playoff games, so chances are he doesn’t do anything.

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