What The ADP!? – Players Going Later Than They Should (Part 2)

Training camp is in full swing, players are getting cut left and right and Fantasy Hockey drafts are winding up. It’s still a little too early to put a tonne of stock in Yahoo’s current Average Draft Positions (ADP), but it’s also worth taking a look at. On other sports related article such as golf just visit this blog if you’re looking for a Non Conforming Driver.

I went through all of the players with an ADP of 170 or lower and cross-referenced them with where I have them ranked. There were a lot of discrepancies and that can mean one of three things.

1. 1. It really is too early to get a solid idea from ADPs.
2. 2. Most of the people who have done drafts on Yahoo already don’t know what they’re doing.
3. 3. I have no idea what I am talking about.

Let’s at least pretend I do know what I’m saying and take a look at 15 players (skaters & goalies) that were going much later than where I have them ranked. On Monday I wrote about the first eight players, now let’s take a look at the remaining seven.

Vincent Trocheck – LW – Panthers (DFO Rank: No.92) – Yahoo ADP:169.7

Trocheck has a lot of things going for him, but that’s not reflected in where he’s being drafted right now. Trocheck took on a much larger role in 2016-17, averaging 20:50 TOI/GM and set a career-high in points (54). The 24-year-old’s increased ice-time allowed him to fire a career-best 230 shots on goal and makes him a candidate to score 25 goals in 2017-18.

Trocheck carried an impressive 54.1 CorsiFor% and a 5.4 relative Corsi last year and has a career 53.0 CF%. He does a lot of good things and plays a reliable two-way game, which guarantees his role as the Panthers’ No.2 centre—behind Aleksander Barkov. There are no red flags when assessing Trocheck, making him a safe mid-round pick, but he’s currently going in the 15th round.

Matt Duchene – C/RW – Avalanche (DFO Rank: No.98) – Yahoo ADP:162.6

There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding Duchene and his potential trade from Colorado and it seems to be affecting his draft stock. I’m not entirely sure why anyone would be hesitant to draft the 26-year-old in the middle rounds because it can’t get much worse than Colorado. Last year, he posted 18 goals and 23 assists (41 points) in 77 games, but he carries 25-to-30 goal, 30-to-35 assist upside.

If Duchene does get traded, his fantasy value immediately spikes as his potential for a minus-30 rating goes out the window. No player is more likely to be traded than Duchene and it’s worth taking a gamble on him because he still has a decent floor in Colorado and an undeniable ceiling if he gets traded to a contender.

Ivan Provorov – D – Flyers (DFO Rank: No.108) – Yahoo ADP:167.8

Provorov enjoyed a solid rookie campaign, collecting 30 points (6G / 24A) over 82 games while averaging nearly 22 minutes per game. Provorov also saw plenty of power-play time on the Flyers’ second unit and should see similar usage this season.

Provorov fired 161 shots on goal and was limited by a 3.7 shooting percentage. If his shooting percentage regresses closer to the mean, he instantly becomes a candidate for 10-plus goals and 25-to-30 assists. Inexplicably, Provorov is being drafted as a No.6 fantasy defenseman despite having low-end No.2/high-end No.3 upside.

Anthony Mantha – LW/RW – Red Wings (DFO Rank: No.112) – Yahoo ADP:166.5

The Red Wings are headed in the wrong direction but they have a couple of young forwards who should do some damage, especially Mantha. After being called up from the AHL, Mantha had 17 goals, 19 assists (36 points), a 54.4 CF% and 7.3 relative Corsi in 60 games. Those are extremely impressive stats for a young player on a sub-standard team.

The 23-year-old had back-to-back 50-goal seasons in his final two years in junior (QMJHL) and has recorded great AHL numbers. He has excellent size and skate very well for a power-forward. If you combine that with his high-end release and increased usage in 2017-18, he could be a 30-30 player. That kind of upside should be going well before the 14th round.

Max Domi – LW – Coyotes (DFO Rank: No.115) – Yahoo ADP:158.6

Domi was a very intriguing fantasy pick last season after he posted 52 points (18G / 34A) in his rookie season. Injuries limited the young winger to 59 games, but he was on a 13-goal, 40-assist and 150-shot per 82-game pace. Domi won’t score a tonne of goals, but has 20-goal and 40-assist upside if he stays healthy.

The Coyotes are an improving young team and Domi will be leaned on heavily. With the addition of Derek Stepan, Domi should be poised for a huge bounce-back season. However, people must think he’s the second-coming of his pugilist father because that’s the only way to explain a 14th round ADP.

Antti Raanta – G – Coyotes (DFO Rank: No.122) – Yahoo ADP:164.9

For years it has been difficult to trust a Coyotes’ netminder, but that should change in 2017-18. Mike Smith is now in Calgary and Raanta takes over as their No.1 following an offseason trade. As Henrik Lundqvist’s backup, Raanta racked up a 0.61 winning percentage with a 2.25 GAA and .921 SV% in two seasons.

Raanta will defeinetly see more rubber than he is used to and his numbers will take a hit, but he’s nearly guaranteed 60-plus starts and his splits should be that of a low-end No.2 goaltending option. Raanta is currently being drafted as the No.30 netminder, behind obvious backups like Antti Niemi, Michal Neuvirth and Peter Budaj. He should move up at least three rounds.

Brendan Gallagher – RW – Canadiens (DFO Rank: No.149) – Yahoo ADP:168.0

Gallagher could end up being the steal of the 2017-18 season. The 25-year-old has had a tough time with injuries over the last two seasons, missing a combined 47 games. The injuries seem to be scaring fantasy owners away, but Gallagher has a tonne of hidden value. The winger has  54.6 CF% and 6.0 relative Corsi over his career and has averaged 241.6 shots per 82 games over the last four seasons. That shot volume is borderline elite, ranking in the top 15 over that stretch.

A healthy Gallagher should have no problem getting to 20-to-25 goals and his potential to play with Max Pacioretty and Jonathan Drouin could set him up for a career-year. He has mid-round upside, going in the 14th round.