2020 Projected Lineups: Dallas Stars
The @Dallas Stars started the 2019-20 season at 18-11-3 before relieving head coach Jim Montgomery for “unprofessional conduct inconsistent with the core values and beliefs of the Dallas Stars and the National Hockey League.”
After Montgomery was let go, the Stars named Rick Bowness interim head coach and went 20-13-5, giving them the 10th best Points% (.592) in the NHL over that span. When they returned to play in August, the Stars got hot and rode a sizzling @Anton Khudobin to the Stanley Cup Finals. Despite losing to Tampa Bay, it was the first time the Stars have made it passed the second-round since 2008, and their core remains young enough that the Championship window remains open.
With very little cap-space and a couple of RFAs to sign, the Stars had one of the quietest off-seasons in the league. They were able to retain Khudobin at three-years, $3.33M AAV, re-signed playoff star @Denis Gurianov to a two-year bridge deal ($2.55M AAV), and shutdown centre Radek Faksa got a five-year extension worth $16.25 million ($3.25M AAV). All of that internal housekeeping keeps the finalists largely intact, with @Roope Hintz sitting as the only RFA without a new deal.
Projected Forward Lines
A lot of viewers were unmoved by the performances of the Stars’ top forwards during the postseason run. However, the team came out to say that they were battling injuries throughout the postseason. Especially @Tyler Seguin, who played through a torn labrum in his hip and @Jamie Benn who had a shoulder injury. Still, their regular-season scoring totals weren’t that spectacular either. Of the 45 lines who played at least 250 5v5 TOI together, Benn, Seguin and @Alexander Radulov ranked 42nd in GoalsFor/60 (1.53). With that said, they were outstanding from a defensive point of view, ranking 1st in GoalsAgainst/60 (1.09) and 12th in GoalsFor% (58.3%). Under Bowness, the Stars play a very low-event, conservative game. They ranked in the bottom 10 in Shots For/Against and were in the top-third in the NHL in terms of High-Danger chances against. That helps explain why their top-line was all on-pace to have less than 60 points, even if the season went the distance. However, Seguin underwent right hip arthroscopy and labral repair surgery on Monday and is expected to miss five months, so expect @Joe Pavelski to move up into that spot until Seguin is available around April.
With Pavelski moving to the first line, Hintz will go back to the middle of the ice. Hintz is a natural centre but played on the wing quite a bit in 2020. Hintz will have Gurianov on one of his wings. Together, 49.0 CorsiFor% leaves room for substantial improvement, but they were able to create ample scoring chances with minimal possession. They were above average at finishing those chances as well, posting a 2.91 GF/60 and 69.23 GF%. 2017 second-round pick @Jason Robertson is expected to graduate to the NHL this season. In his first AHL season, Robertson led Texas in points (47) and tied for the team-lead in goals (25). He is a big-body (6-foot-2, 210 lbs.) who scored 40-plus goals for three straight OHL seasons. The only real knock on his game is his skating, but he’s been a natural goal-scorer at every stop and figures to be a productive NHL scorer in 2021. If he lands a top-6 role early in the season, he’s a rookie worth monitoring in deep leagues.
The third line of @Andrew Cogliano, Faksa and @Blake Comeau is an extremely effective shutdown line. Their 1.63 GA/60 ranked eighth (Min.250TOI) last season, but they ranked 44th/45 in GF/60 (1.04) so they offer almost nothing offensively.
@Joel Kiviranta burst onto the scene in the playoffs, scoring massive goals and cemented himself on the Stars 2021 roster in the process. @Jason Dickinson will be among the top-12 forwards as well. That leaves @Justin Dowling and Ty Dellandrea to battle for the fourth-line centre role. Dellandrea was their first-round pick (No.13 overall) in 2018 and set career-highs in goals (32) and points (70) in just 47 OHL games a season ago. Dellandrea has more upside than Dowling, but Dowling has the experience so it will be an interesting battle in camp. I imagine Dellandrea will make the team initially, and the two will make their case for the spot early in the 2021 season.
Projected Defensive Pairings
The Stars’ blueline is truly the strength of their team. Their top-4 was the best in the league in 2020, with @Miro Heiskanen and @Jamie Oleksiak posting an NHL-low 1.14 GA/60 among pairings who played at least 450 TOI together. @John Klingberg and @Esa Lindell weren’t much worse, ranking 10th (1.82). They were solid offensively as well, posting 60.9 and 52.4 GF% respectively.
Heiskanen and Klingberg took their games to new levels in the playoffs, leading the team with 26 and 21 points. Both defensemen skate and move the puck extremely well, which is why a lot of their offence starts with them. With a top-4 that talented and playing massive minutes as they do, Dallas doesn’t need a stout third pairing. That’s why they re-signed low-maintenance veteran @Andrej Sekera and brought in swiss army knife @Mark Pysyk.
They have a few others who could compete for a third-pairing role: @Stephen Johns continues to work his way back from concussion issues. @Julius Honka is a former first-round pick (2014) who re-signed with the Stars after spending a season back in Finland. Lastly, @Thomas Harley is another first-round pick (2019) who is close but will likely start in the AHL because of how deep Dallas’ blueline is.
Advanced Stats via MoneyPuck.com and HockeyReference.com
Salary Cap Figures via PuckPedia.com