2022 Fantasy Hockey Strength of Schedule

Last year the NHL Regular Season Schedule was unlike anything we had ever seen before.
Four divisions and you only play the teams in your division all season. We figured it would affect Fantasy Hockey because some divisions were going to be higher scoring than others. So, I created a Fantasy Hockey Strength of Schedule, and it identified the North Division as the highest-scoring division and the best for Skaters and worst for Goalies. That ended up becoming a reality, with an average of 5.89 goals scored per game.
With the NHL going back to a standard schedule this season, the differences from division to division aren’t going to be as extreme, but from team to team, they could be. I applied similar logic to last year, taking a weighted three-year average (50% for 2021, 32% for 2020 and 18% for 2019) for key offensive and defensive team metrics. From there, I was able to create an Offensive and Defensive Score for each team and apply it to this year’s schedule to find out which team’s skaters and goalies have the best Fantasy Hockey Strength of Schedule.

It’s immediately evident that the Pacific Division appears to be the weakest in the NHL this season. Based on the defensive rating, their division has six of the bottom-11 teams in the NHL. And that doesn’t even account for the Seattle Kraken, who may struggle in their first season. I gave them an average grade both offensively and defensively so the results would not be skewed, one way or the other. With their main competition all grading out in the bottom-third of the NHL, Calgary and Vegas sit firmly at the top of the table. This should help potential bounce-back candidates like Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau.
The Central Division doesn’t look as bad, but there are enough poor quality teams (three of the bottom nine) to boost teams like Colorado, Minnesota, St. Louis and Dallas. You can firmly expect COL1 return value this season, and players like Kirill Kaprizov and Kevin Fiala should take that next step.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Atlantic Division looks like a juggernaut. For the below-average teams like Buffalo, Detroit and Ottawa, it could be tough sledding. There aren’t many relevant fantasy options on those teams as it is, but the schedule could make it even more difficult.

Two goalies that I was already high on entering the 2022 season, grade out extremely well here: Robin Lehner (1st) and Darcy Kuemper (4th). It will be a little more difficult to target the Hurricanes and Maple Leafs’ goalies because of the time-shares. However, they look like two of the better 50/50 shares to target. The Panthers, Penguins and Bruins should all operate similarly, making potential backup netminders like Sergei Bobrovsky and Jeremy Swayman a little more viable than they originally appeared–depending on how many of the cushy matchups they get of course.
At the bottom, it’s an unenviable way for Alex Nedeljkovic’s Red Wings career to start. John Gibson is already sliding the other way, and I’m not even 100 certain the Sabres even have goalies. I would steer clear.
As for goalies who are currently being drafted higher with poor schedules: Cam Talbot, Thatcher Demko and Philipp Grubauer stick out. Strength of Schedule shouldn’t be the end-all-be-all on draft day, but it should help you make those difficult decisions. For example, if you’re between Demko (ADP: 102.8) and Ullmark (ADP 92.3) on draft day, this should push you towards Ullmark.