3 struggling players with positive underlying statistics
A couple of days ago, I took a look at a handful of under-the-radar players who are putting together breakout performances early in the 2021-22 season.
Today, let’s take a look down another route and look at some players who aren’t producing all that well right now but appear poised for breakouts given their strong underlying numbers. There are quite a few big names dealing with snake bites right now, but these three names stand out as players who could be ready to pop off.
Auston Matthews
Auston Matthews’ pursuit of another Rocket Richard Trophy isn’t off to a good start.
The former No. 1 overall pick missed the first few games of the season because he had surgery in August to repair a wrist issue that he dealt with for a good chunk of 2021.
Through six games, Matthews has found the back of the net only once. Toronto’s best scorer being snake bit is a key reason why the team’s offense, the one that’s expected to be among the elite, ranks in the bottom half of the league.
Don’t panic, Leafs fans. Matthews hasn’t been playing poorly. In fact, he’s been playing quite well.
Matthews leads all forwards in the league in terms of on-ice shot attempts for per 60 minutes at even-strength and he ranks ninth in the same category in expected goals for. The problem here is that the Leafs have a 5.6 shooting percentage when he’s on the ice.
Eventually, these pucks are going to start going in for Matthews, and Toronto’s offense is going to turn things around.
That being said, Alex Ovechkin appears to be on a mission this year, as he has nine goals in eight games, so Matthews has some work to do in order to get back in the Rocket race.
Taylor Hall
Another team from the Atlantic Division off to a ho-hum start to the year is the Boston Bruins. Boston is 4-3-0 thus far and they rank 26th in the league with just 18 goals scored.
The team’s top trio of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak have combined to score just five goals at even-strength, which is worrying production from three players who have formed one of the NHL’s best lines over the past half-decade.
While the focus in Boston is around those top guns not operating as they usually do, the one player who really appears poised for a breakout is Taylor Hall.
The Bruins acquired Hall ahead of last year’s trade deadline and he scored eight goals in 16 games, a massive improvement on the two goals in 37 games he had in Buffalo before getting moved. Hall fit into the Bruins’ picture seamlessly and the team inked him to a four-year deal to stick around.
This year, Hall is off to a decent start, with two goals and five points in seven games, but his underlying numbers suggest he can do a lot better.
Hall ranks fifth in the league among forwards in terms of on-ice shot attempts for per 60 minutes at even-strength and his expected goals for ranks 22nd. The problem is nobody is converting, as the Bruins have a 5.8 shooting percentage with Hall on the ice.
Perhaps a shake-up is necessary here. It might be time to put a sniper such as Pastrnak with Hall, who’s driving play at an elite pace.
Trevor Zegras
Trevor Zegras has been so fun to watch. Love the creativity, even when it doesn't work pic.twitter.com/rlC6XPSBvs
— Dimitri Filipovic (@DimFilipovic) October 29, 2021Though his boxcar stats aren’t showing it right now, Trevor Zegras will likely find himself in the Calder Trophy conversation when the season is finished.
The No. 9 overall pick from the 2019 draft has two goals and five points through nine games, respectable numbers, especially given the mediocre Anaheim Ducks team he’s playing on. But, when you watch the kind of offense he generates on a game-to-game basis and you see his underlying numbers, it’s clear Zegras is on the verge of a breakout.
Zegras ranks 10th among forwards in expected goals for and he’s fifth in terms of on-ice high-danger chances per 60 minutes at even strength. He has a 7.7 shooting percentage himself and the Ducks are shooting 9.5 percent with him on the ice.
Eventually, these high-quality chances that Zegras generates are going to start winding up in the back of the net at a much higher clip. Keep your eyes on this kid.
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