DailyFaceoff DFS Cheat Sheet – December 14th
There are four games tonight: the Sharks are in Ottawa on a back-to-back, which means it could be an Aaron Dell night. The red-hot Penguins will face the Bruins, the surging Flames face the slumping Lightning and the night wraps up with another smoking hot team, the Flyers, taking on a struggling team, the Avalanche.
This Cheat Sheet includes DraftKings and FanDuel salary as well as SaberSim dfs projections. These projections don’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen. One game samples have too much randomness to pin down exact predictions. Rather, the projections represent what a player’s performance would look like on average if that particular matchup were played over and over again. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, and the projections represent the average of those possibilities for each player.
Centres
Logan Couture – @ OTT – DK-$6,700 / FD-$6,900
SaberSim Projection: DK-3.90 / FD-14.16
Couture picked up just 11 points (6G / 5A) in his first 21 games, but has started to heat up in the last few weeks. Couture has registered eight points (5G / 3A) in his last eight games—during that time, the Sharks’ centre is averaging 2.0 shots and and 1.75 blocks, which gives him a decent floor. Taking Joe Pavelski and Brent Burns are easy choices, but Couture is a great way to save some cash tonight.
Nathan MacKinnon – vs. PHI – DK-$6,500 / FD-$7,200
SaberSim Projection: DK-4.60 / FD-16.35
The Avalanche aren’t in a good way and the Flyers are red-hot, but the Avalanche won 57% of the SaberSim projections, so I’ll put some faith in them. The Avalanche likely won’t have high owned percentage, which makes MacKinnon a solid GPP option tonight. MacKinnon has registered three goals, two assists and 16 shots (4.0 S/PG) in his last four contests.
Sam Bennett – vs. TBL – DK-$4,700 / FD-$4,700
SaberSim Projection: DK-3.07 / FD-10.97
Bennett has been playing with the red-hot Johnny Gaudreau since the latter returned from injury and it has done a lot for his dfs value. Bennett has two goals, two assists and nine shots (2.25 S/PG) in four games since Gaudreau returned and is cheap enough to stack him with ‘Johnny Hockey’ against struggling Lightning team.
Wingers
Johnny Gaudreau – vs. TBL – DK-$7,300 / FD-$7,600
SaberSim Projection: DK-3.99 / FD-14.45
Gaudreau has scored two goals, six assists and 12 points (3.0 S/PG) in four games since returning from a finger injury. Gaudreau is playing fantastically and the Lightning come in having lost seven of their last eight and are giving up an average of 3.75 goals per game.
Matt Duchene – vs. PHI – DK-$6,000 / FD-$7,000
SaberSim Projection: DK-4.27 / FD-15.41
Duchene leads the Avalanche with 10 goals and is tied with MacKinnon in points (20). He is not playing with MacKinnon at even strength but they play together on the top power-play unit. Duchene enters play with four points (3G / 1A) in his last four games and his owned percentage should be low vs. a Flyers team playing very well.
Kevin Labanc – @ OTT – DK-$3,300 / FD-$3,300
SaberSim Projection: DK-2.22 / FD-8.02
Labanc registered just one goal in his first seven games, but has picked up three gaols and two assists (five points) in his last nine. Labanc was an excellent scorer in the OHL and he is a solid punt-play option in Ottawa. He’s expected to start on the third line and will see some power-play time as well.
Defensemen
Francois Beauchemin – vs. PHI – DK-$4,300 / FD-$3,700
SaberSim Projection: DK-1.62 / FD-5.56
Barrie is the best option on the Avalanche blueline, but Beauchemin has nice value as well. Beauchemin has just six assists on the season, but shoots a nice amount and blocks even more shots. In his last seven games he has two assists while averaging 1.86 shots and 3.14 blocks.
Trevor Daley – vs. BOS – DK-$3,800 / FD-$4,200
SaberSim Projection: DK-1.81 / FD-6.42
Daley scored on his only shot on Monday and carries some nice value while he is playing on the Penguins’ top power play unit alongside Kris Letang. The Penguins are scoring like crazy right now, which makes it likely that Daley can chip in an assist or two as well. He averages nearly two shots and blocks per game, which gives him a decent floor at $3,800/$4,200.
Dylan DeMelo – @ OTT – DK-$3,300 / FD-$3,300
SaberSim Projection: DK-1.09 / FD-3.76
DeMelo is a great value play as long as Marc-Edouard Vlasic doesn’t play again. He was held out of Tuesday’s game due to a lower-body injury, so there’s a chance he won’t play again tonight. DeMelo has played in four straight games and has one assist, eight shots and five blocks. Solid value for $3,300.
Goalies
Matt Murray – vs. BOS – DK-$8,300 / FD-$9,100
SaberSim Projection: DK-5.09 / FD-20.35
Murray has won four in a row with a 1.98 GAA, .931 SV% and one shutout and the Penguins are scoring at an incredible rate right now, giving him a great chance to record a fifth straight win. Murray carries the highest SaberSim projected dfs total tonight.
Chad Johnson – vs. TBL – DK-$7,700 / FD-$8,600
SaberSim Projection: DK-4.57 / FD-18.28
Johnson has won six consecutive starts while posting a 1.48 GAA, .951 SV% and one shutout. He has been unreal this season and has a chance to extend his winning streak to seven when he takes on a Lightning team that he struggling mightily and could be without Nikita Kucherov tonight.
Calvin Pickard – vs. PHI – DK-$7,100 / FD-$7,800
SaberSim Projection: DK-4.81 / FD-19.23
Sure, in Pickard’s last appearance the Avalanche gave up 10 goals and the Flyers are red-hot, but Pickard should pick up a bunch of points by stopping a lot of rubber. SaberSim gives Pickard a 53.8% chance of allowing two goals or less and I’m OK with taking a gamble on that.
SaberSim Value Picks
