DailyFaceoff/Corsica NHL Bets (October 22nd)
The Corsica Hockey Bet Predictions went 2-0 on the Highest Value and Highest Probability bets last Thursday moving this post to 10-3 (76.9%) on the season.
Tonight’s four-game slate features the Red Wings trying to win their second straight game against their former teammate Petr Mrazek and a Opening Night rematch between the Jets and Blues. Below you will find the Highest Value and Highest Probability bets for tonight’s slate, but you can view the best predictions for all eight games in our BETS SECTION.
For an explanation on how Corsica generates these predictions click HERE
Highest Value
Colorado Avalanche @ Philadelphia Flyers — Over/Under | Under 6.0 (+112)
The under between the Flyers and Avalanche may be tough to come by tonight. In the Flyers’ first eight games of the season, there have been an average of 7.9 goals per game—7.3 at the Wells Fargo Center. For the Avalanche, there has been an average of 6.0 goals per game.
This bet provides the best value on the slate, but Corsica also gives this game a 52.86% chance at hitting the under. Brian Elliott is coming off of the best game of his season and has stopped 58 of the last 65 shots (.892 SV%) that he has faced. In the opposing goal, Semyon Varlamov has been steady in his first five starts and is well rested after watching Philipp Grubauer start the last two games. Varlamov’s 1.77 GAA and .948 SV%, suggests that he can hold up his end of the bargain in keeping this game under 6.0 goals. The Avalanche aren’t typically a great road team. In their last 46 games away from Colorado, they are averaging 2.80 goals per game.
Highest Probability
Carolina Hurricanes @ Detroit Red Wings — Spread | DET +1.5 (-197)
The Red Wings are coming off of their first win of the season and draw a tough matchup vs. the 4-3-1 Hurricanes. Helping the Red Wings cover the +1.5 spread is Mrazek getting the start for Carolina. Mrazek has an ugly 3.07 GAA and .874 SV% in his first four starts and was pulled in his first start against his former team last year—as a member of the Flyers.
The Hurricanes have been the most dominant 5v5 team in the league so far this year. They are currently leading the NHL in shots per game (42.1) and have a +17.2 shot differential. On paper, the Red Wings look like one of the worst teams in the NHL. However, when you dive in deeper, you find that they’re actually 10th in the NHL in ScoringChancesFor% (52.16) but have been limited by the fifth worst 5v5 Shooting% (5.81) in the league.
Additionally, the Hurricanes have been the worst team in the NHL on the power-play and penalty-kill, while the Red Wings are sixth on the PK (84.8%) and seventh on the PP (28.0). The Red Wings might not win this game outright, but it’s more even than you might think at first glance. And the special teams advantage should help them keep this game close. Corsica give them a 69.05 percent chance at covering.