Binary Breakdowns – November 28th, 2011

Updated: November 29, 2011 at 10:37 am by Jeff Tay

Another year older, and another year wiser; the infamous Computer Picks (Cheat Sheet) System returns to take on the 2011-2012 NHL season. This time around though, the man who presses the ‘run program’ button (the “Tay-zer” himself) also chimes in with his own analysis of fair and foul betting lines, as the daily pursuit to find the very best NHL bets continues. Will two betting breakdown methods be better than one? Find out this season on Binary Breakdowns.

How it works:

The Computer Picks System and Jeff T. will both analyze the day’s NHL bets independently, using their own individual methods.


The Computer:

Recalls results from previous NHL games which share similarities with the current games (similar/same opponents, similar/same rest schedules, similar/same travel schedules, similar/same “bounce-back” or “letdown” spots)–the more similarities the more relevant. The Computer then calculates a projected average score for each current game, and an estimated percentage (chance) that each team has of winning their respective game. Take a team’s chances of winning and multiply them by their decimal betting odds, and if the product is greater than 1.00, then you have value (35% chance of winning x 3.00 payout = 1.05 a.k.a. “Winning! Duh!”)!

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+ Today’s Computer Breakdowns:

The Man:
Recalls on his personal betting experience to estimate what “fair” betting lines would be for each and every game. He then compares the actual betting lines to his estimated betting lines to find perceived value. Moneyline bets which are deemed to offer positive value by both (Computer and Man) analysis methods receive a coveted “Double-Recommended” status.
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Also taken into account are teams’ home/away records, and their win percentages when playing under similar situational circumstances.

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+ Jeff’s Breakdowns and Today’s “Double-Recommendations”:

And that’s how today’s plays break down (“Binary Style”).
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Suggestion: bet 1.5 units on top-rated recommendations which appear under both methods, and 1 unit on recommendations which appear only once.
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As with most things in life, the best way to produce consistent results (even consistently bad ones) is to have consistent methods and processes. The same goes for sports betting–it’s a science. Find your method, test your results, and then, modify your method to improve it. Repeat if neccessary.

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