Buy Low or Sell High? Part Two

Updated: January 26, 2011 at 7:50 pm by Jaroslaw

Hey guys, it’s Jaroslaw here again, with part 2 of my buy low, sell high report. Some interesting things occurred in just one week that really impacted some of my recommendations from last week, most notably the Savard injury. This may actually help Horton’s value though if he goes back on a line with Krejci, whom he had so much success with earlier in the year. Should be a wait and see approach with that situation. Anyways, without further ado:

Montreal Canadiens

Buy low on P.K. Subban. He’s getting increased ice time, and with that ice time has come better production. With 8 points and a +2 in his last 10 games, he’s becoming more and more popular with his head coach and that should mean more confidence for him going forward. Expect a big second half from him.

Sell high on Carey Price. The window to get max value for him likely passed a long time ago, but a recent resurgence in his play should have potential trade suitors eying him as someone to bolster their lineup. I don’t think he will repeat his early season success going forward, so if you do not have faith in him continuing his strong success, sell now.

Nashville Predators

Buy low on Patric Hornqvist. He’s had a resurgence of late and has been showing his form of last season. Perhaps the second of half of the season will be more fruitful for the young winger, rewarding his patience fantasy owners, or those who had the foresight to get him while he was down. He’s quite talented so the points were bound to come sooner or later. Let’s hope they come often and in bunches.

Sell high on Pekka Rinne. He’s been having an awfully strong season, so perhaps now is the time to try to cash in on that. He’s the kind of guy who I think is capable of maintaining his current pace, but a more reliable goalie or player can be found through trade . It may be risky, but wait a little while since he’s only just recently got into a groove again after coming back from injury a month ago.

New Jersey Devils

Buy low on Ilya Kovalchuk, Martin Brodeur and Patrik Elias. Now is the time to start buying on the Devils (well, it really was a few weeks or so ago), as they are finally rounding into form. Elias has had a tremendous run since early November (30 points in 33 games), and Kovalchuk appears to finally be playing better as well. Even Marty is starting to put together consistent strings of good games. I’ve talked a guy who is an avid Devils fan, and he’s told me that Lemaire has had a tremendous impact with the team since he came back on. Expect the Devils to have a respectable second half, and with that, respectable seconds halves from their players as well.

Sell high on Patrik Elias and Ilya Kovalchuk. BECAUSE these guys are bouncing back, their values will continue to go up. Elias has been very good for a long time now, so it would be shrewd to start pointing that out to rival GMs who may be looking for a consistent scoring option to add for a playoff run. Kovalchuk’s name alone should get some value back, but wait a little while for him to put a strong string of games together, and then other GMs should go stark raving mad over him. Patience is the key with the Devils at this point, but if recent games are any indication, it will pay off soon.

New York Islanders

Buy low on Kyle Okposo. This guy would be an instant candidate for a buy low before, but with how he’s played in his first few games back, I’m not sure if he’ll get back into form soon enough in order to provide anything worthy of the roster spot he’d be taking up. Still, if you’re stacked on offense, there is no harm in picking him up, as he’d likely be a dirt cheap buy at this point, and stashing him on the bench until he starts producing. He’s on the 2nd line right now, but he should supplant Parenteau at some point for time on Tavares’ wing. At that point, his production should increase considerably.

Sell high on.. uhh.. yeah. There is nobody on the Isles that has any value at all right now, but if you’re a John Tavares owner, be patient. When Okposo eventually returns to his wing, that should translate to increased production from Tavares. When that happens, Tavares’ stock will climb, maybe enough to get a fellow GM to bite on him. There isn’t much to lose in this scenario, so just be patient.

New York Rangers

Buy low on Ryan Callahan and Wojtek Wolski. There are a number of players on the Rangers having very solid seasons (Boyle, Dubinsky, Callahan, to name a few), but these two guys stick out immediately for me. Wolski should see his production rise with increased ice time in all scoring situations, so he’s going to be valuable going forward. He may even be on waivers in your league, so check quickly before he’s scooped up by someone else. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him score at a 60-70 point pace the rest of the way. As for Callahan, when he comes back from injury, he will likely reclaim his spot on a line with Dubinsky, and that should have some value. He can likely be had for little right now, so if you have a free IR spot, you can safely grab him, stash him, and expect good value from him going forward, especially if your league counts hits and blocks.

Sell high on Marian Gaborik. Really, I would say Henrik Lundqvist, but that guy is probably the most consistent goaltender in fantasy hockey. Gaborik is a hot and cold kind of player, so if you are in a head to head league, it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to trade him for someone that is more consistent. He should see his production climb back up to a point per game, so until he shows signs of that, I would keep him, but once that does happen, unload him for someone more reliable.

Ottawa Senators

This team is a mess, and will continue to be a mess. I would advise staying away from every single player on this team, with the exception of Erik Karlsson. Sell high on him as soon as possible, because he’s had a very good season up to this point, but his production can shut off completely at any time. Other than that, just.. yeah. Stay far away.

Philadelphia Flyers

Buy low on Matt Carle. The other players on this team are all either overachieving crazily or having really steady, expected production, so there are very few options to buy low on here. Matt Carle, however, will give you reliable +/- and has shown flashes of offense the last month and a half. When Pronger was out, he took the reigns of the team’s primary offensive catalyst on the back-end, with 16 points since the beginning of December. There likely won’t be a very high price tag on him at this time because he’s quite inconsistent, but it’s worth the risk in a deeper league.

Sell high on Danny Briere. I am absolutely convinced that he’s playing at his peak right now. There’s always a risk of him falling off the face of the earth in terms of points production, and while I don’t think that’s a huge possibility, the fact is that he hasn’t been a point per game player since 2006-2007.

Expect a slight drop off in his production going forward, and act accordingly. He’s been good to you, now it’s time to cash in.

Phoenix Coyotes

Buy low on Shane Doan. The window has likely closed to get him for a dirt cheap price, but Doan has proven to be a very reliable 70+ point player for a long time now, to the point where I feel that
last season was a bit of an anomaly. His peripherals are very strong as well, so there is little risk in acquiring him.

Sell high on Keith Yandle. This guy was my prized sleeper pick in my main draft pool and he has rewarded me greatly, and there’s very little reason to actually trade him, but if you got him very late (and you most likely did), then now’s the time to cash in if you’re desperate for someone who has a more reliable offensive pedigree. There’s a very real chance his production will drop off from his current 67 point pace, so his combination of points production + strong peripherals will likely lead to very high returns in a trade.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Buy low on Evgeni Malkin. His injury combined with his inconsistent play will likely lead to frustrated owners getting trigger happy over anything resembling a good return. I would be absolutely shocked if he ended the season at less than a point per game, so if you’re in desperate need of an infusion on offense and are willing to wait for him to return to form, there really isn’t anyone out there better for the price you’d likely have to pay to get him.

Sell high on Kris Letang, for the same reasons as Yandle. He’s having a career year, and the departure of Gonchar likely had much to do with that, but with Crosby and Malkin out for who knows how long, his numbers will likely suffer as a result. The ideal time to sell would have been a couple weeks ago, but he should still garner pretty substantial returns based on his play so far. As with Yandle, there’s a very real possibility of his current pace dropping off a bit, so if you’re convinced that his production will tail off, sell him before that happens.

San Jose Sharks

Buy low on Patrick Marleau. Let’s be honest here, he’s been having a brutal season. Given that he’s playing well below expectations, there’s little reason to believe that a GM would get fair value back for him, so now’s the time to pounce on an owner that is frustrated beyond the breaking point. At worst, Marleau will continue his current pace, but at best, he’s a point per game player, so this is a move with very high rewards.

Sell high on Ryane Clowe. Man, so many players that would have been beautiful options to sell a while ago. Regardless, at one point he was 2nd on the Sharks in scoring, but he has since fallen back down to earth a bit to a more sustainable level of production. However, his current pace of 67 points would still net him a career high in that category, so now is the time to trade him to a GM who is desperate for the PIMs he provides, as the prospect of having a near point per game player that provides the peripherals that Clowe does may lead to an overvaluing of the player. I personally don’t see him getting more than 60 points, so selling on him now isn’t a bad idea at all.

St. Louis Blues

Buy low on T. J. Oshie. He’s recently come back from injury and it will take him a while to reclaim the form that had him score nearly a point per game before he went down, but until then, his value should be relatively low. I feel like he can go back to that near point per game production, so if you also believe that, it would be a good idea to grab him before he actually begins producing at that rate again. It is quite risky, but might be worth it in a deeper league.

Sell high on Jaroslav Halak. He’s had respectable numbers on the season, so if that’s all other GMs see when evaluating him, they may miss how horribly inconsistent he’s been lately. The time to sell him at his absolute peak value has long past, but he should still have value to GMs desperate for goaltending and willing to take a chance. There is always the chance of him bouncing back strong, especially with players coming back from injury, and that fact alone might net a very nice return.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Buy low on Dwayne Roloson. The time to REALLY buy low on him would have been right after he got traded, but his overall numbers and slight inconsistency may lead to an owner not trusting him
going forward, and that fact may make it possible to get him for less than he’s worth. He’s a very strong start on any night, so now might be the time to nab him before he REALLY shows what he can do behind a strong team. Simon Gagne and Vinny Lecavalier are other buy low options, but I wouldn’t really recommend them that much unless you’re really desperate.

Sell high on.. Dwayne Roloson. I would say Stamkos and St. Louis, but I see little reason that those guys can’t keep up with their current production, so that leaves Roloson as the only other guy with real value on this team. If you try to lessen the impact of his average overall numbers by pointing out that he got pulled in 2 really bad starts (and getting pulled really wrecks the numbers of a goalie), you could then sell him on his VERY strong performances in every win he’s had for the Lightning. With few other options, the Lightning will rely heavily on Roloson except in back-to-back games (which have been his bane so far in Tampa), so he will get most of the starts and most of those starts should be high quality ones.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Buy low on James Reimer. There aren’t really any players on this team that aren’t overachieving, but James Reimer is a guy who has quickly put together a strong string of starts for the Leafs, and while he likely won’t get a high number of wins (mostly due to not starting too much), he should put very strong peripherals if his numbers so far are any indication. The team plays much better in front of him than the other goalies, so he’ll get help from them as well. He’s definitely a decent sleeper option in deeper leagues, and could be had for cheap due to him being unproven.

Sell high on the KGM line. Kulemin, Grabovski and MacArthur have had unreal seasons, and it would be unrealistic to actually expect them to have 70 point seasons. Thus, now would be a very good time to sell high on them while they are quite close to that pace. As a Leaf fan, I hope and pray that they do hit the 70 point plateau, but the realistic side of me says they likely won’t – at least not this season.

Vancouver Canucks

Buy low on Alexandre Burrows. With expectations in mind, Burrows has had a pretty miserable season, but Canucks fans will tell you that the skill is there. If he can find a way to regain the form that saw him score 35 goals last year, then he can be a very valuable asset to a fantasy team looking for an infusion of offense without having to give up a lot for it.

Sell high on Alexander Edler. Man, he’s been absolutely on fire lately, and that means a high current value. There is a very good chance that he can maintain his 50+ point pace, but you should be able to get a more reliable player for him with the way he’s been playing lately.

Washington Capitals

Buy low on Alexander Semin. With his injuries and miserable season, the price tag for him shouldn’t be as high as it could be. The potential for an offensive explosion is there, as he’s been on pace for 90+ point seasons the last 2 years, so if he can find that form again when he comes back, he can be a major asset going forward. It should be tough to pry him away even from the most frustrated owners, but he’s worth looking into. Ditto for Ovechkin, Green and Backstrom.

Another, far more interesting prospect is the status of Braden Holtby. He’s performed superbly for the Capitals and should threaten Varlamov and Neuvirth for playing time on the team. Look for him to continue to get starts, and if you’re convinced that he can get a decent amount of them, act now, because if he does get those starts, it will become harder and harder to pry him away.

Sell high on basically everyone that has been sucking. Green, Backstrom, Ovechkin and Semin, specifically. Their names alone should garner interest among GMs who are looking for a low risk, high
reward type player and are willing to give up fair value for them. The Caps are a different team this year, and it’s possible that no Cap will reach the 90 point plateau, so if you can find a way to wrangle a 90+ point player for any of these guys, it would be worth looking into.

And that’s that, the end of my buy low, sell high column. Next week, I’m going to be looking at in-depth advice for preparing for a fantasy draft. I know it’s quite early to be talking about that, but if
you’re as dedicated a fantasy GM as I am, you are ALWAYS thinking about what you’re going to do next year. I’m here to try to help with that. Cheers!