Computer Picks: 06/04/2010–Adjustment Period

Yesterday’s opening betting line of Washington -150 at home against Boston was a sign that the books have undoubtedly made the appropriate adjustments for both “motivated” and “unmotivated” teams (a week or two ago, the line would have been closer to WSH -200). Given that the lines this week will most likely be weighted towards teams that are fighting for playoff spots though, it may not actually be the best idea to start betting on these teams now, as these lines will likely be somewhat inflated. Instead, it may be a better idea to pick out the team(s) that will likely stumble out of the playoff race in this final week, and to fade these teams for good value. A quick glance at the combined records of Montreal, Boston, Philadelphia, and Atlanta over the past 3 weeks will tell you just how well a few of these “desperate teams” have been doing (mediocre at best).

Meanwhile, motivation will also be key in this final week, and it should be a lot easier here now to pick out which teams will be more fired up for their upcoming games. Needless to say, it would also not be a good idea to bet on unmotivated teams. Overall, the best strategy for this week may actually be to play it very tight, and to save it for the playoffs.

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