Computer Picks: November 20th, 2010

Updated: November 20, 2010 at 3:12 pm by Jeff Tay

If Overs went 8-1 last night, then what does that mean for tonight? There are strong signs right now that are pointing to a slightly more compressed recent schedule being the main cause for a major spike in recent goal scoring. Therefore, the best advice that I could probably offer you for this Saturday is to make a play on the Over in at least one game of your choosing. Unless the trend abruptly comes to a halt, we should continue to see nets getting filled.


1) Instead of leaving last season’s stats in an old file on my hard drive, I decided to factor them back into the prediction equation this week (this is in-part due to the upredictability of the recent scoring spike). The system puts more weight on games which occur more recently, so right now, games which took place last season are worth about 10% of what games from this season are worth. Let’s see how this works out.

2) Just to provide a cleaner and more concise look, I did away with the “3+” and “3-” style predictions, and instead had it give final score predictions (whole numbers). It is still important to note though, that the win% numbers are the key. The predicted score could be 4-1, but if the predicted loser has a 35% chance of winning the game, and they are getting +200 on the moneyline, then the correct bet is on that (losing) team, and NOT on the 65% winner who is -250.

3) We’re working on getting this whole thing automated, so that I don’t have to copy and paste the predictions into Windows Paint, save them as .png files, and then upload them onto here. Trust me, it’s a colossal waste of time given my ‘APM’ (actions per minute).

4) As always, if there is a game on here that isn’t posted (yet), it’ll be because I don’t have a betting line for that game yet (as of 4 AM PT).

5) It’s 4 AM for me right now! My APM is getting me killed. Plus, Scott Pilgrim is a surprisingly long movie (that I could have started earlier). As a result of these compounding hindrances I’m just gonna upload these .png files and hit the hay (this will still take me half an hour).