Daily Fantasy Hockey: Power-Play Report (01/28/20)
When building a Daily Fantasy Hockey lineup, it’s important to consider the special teams matchups. When a team or line goes off offensively, more often than not it’s because of the power-play. Below I’ve gone over the special teams matchups for tonight’s two-game slate to help you identify the best power-plays to target. All totals are per 60 minutes of 5v4 ice-time. Each team’s league-wide rank in a given category is noted in brackets. Good luck!
Ottawa Senators @ Buffalo Sabres [7:00 PM EST]
| Senators PP | Sabres PK | |
| PP%/PK% | 12.8% (31st) | 75.3% (26th) |
| PP/PK per Gm | 3.04 (t-15th) | 2.98 (16th) |
| SH%/SV% | 10.05% (28th) | .843 SV% (23rd) |
| Shots For/Against | 47.6 (27th) | 56.64 (25th) |
| Scoring Chances For/Against | 46.17 (20th) | 48.02 (17th) |
| xGoals For/Against | 6.35 (19th) | 6.89 (25th) |
| Sabres PP | Senators PK | |
| PP%/PK% | 19.2% (19th) | 81.1% (15th) |
| PP/PK per Gm | 2.98 (t-18th) | 3.35 (t-27th) |
| SH%/SV% | 14.00% (t-12th) | .873 SV% (15th) |
| Shots For/Against | 47.54 (28th) | 54.02 (20th) |
| Scoring Chances For/Against | 42.08 (26th) | 50.6 (22nd) |
| xGoals For/Against | 5.48 (26th) | 6.71 (22nd) |
Analysis:
You know a power-play is bad when the best thing you can say about it is that they gain man-advantage opportunities at a league average rate. As per usual, you can ignore the Senators power-play tonight. Their dead-last rank in PP% is well-deserved when you look at how much trouble they have generating shots and scoring chances. Even on a two-game slate against a sub-par penalty-kill, there’s no reason to invest in the Senators power-play tonight, especially given they’re on the tail-end of a back-to-back.
The Sabres underlying numbers on the power-play are a little concerning, but there’s plenty of reason to believe they can maintain an above-average SH% on the power-play, given all their high-end talent. They can struggle to generate shots and quality chances against good penalty-killing teams, but the Senators are far from that. On a slate with such limited options, I don’t think you can overlook the Sabres power-play tonight. They offer a ton of upside tonight thanks to Ottawa’s undisciplined nature and the potential fatigue of playing back-to-back games.
St. Louis Blues @ Calgary Flames [9:00 PM EST]
| Blues PP | Flames PK | |
| PP%/PK% | 24.8% (4th) | 82.5% (8th) |
| PP/PK per Gm | 2.98 (t-18th) | 3.08 (t-19th) |
| SH%/SV% | 18.10% (2nd) | .874 SV% (13th) |
| Shots For/Against | 51.28 (19th) | 51.8 (16th) |
| Scoring Chances For/Against | 52.99 (8th) | 51.57 (24th) |
| xGoals For/Against | 6.47 (16th) | 6.33 (17th) |
| Flames PP | Blues PK | |
| PP%/PK% | 18.5% (22nd) | 82.1% (t-10th) |
| PP/PK per Gm | 2.92 (22nd) | 2.90 (t-10th) |
| SH%/SV% | 12.50% (19th) | .885 SV% (4th) |
| Shots For/Against | 51.24 (20th) | 51.31 (t-12th) |
| Scoring Chances For/Against | 45.55 (22nd) | 45.87 (11th) |
| xGoals For/Against | 6.64 (t-13th) | 6.38 (t-19th) |
Analysis:
Both of these teams do a great job of suppressing scoring chances at even strength, so you’ll want plenty of power-play exposure if you’re playing this game. The Blues fourth-ranked PP% is severely inflated by a sky-high SH%, but we can’t be too picky on a two-game slate. Yes there is some regression coming their way, but they have a long way to fall. They do a great job of creating scoring chances with the man advantage, an area Calgary happens to struggle with on the penalty-kill. It’s not a dream matchup, but there’s enough reason to like a Blues power-play stack on this two-game slate.
Calgary’s power-play will be in tough tonight, but they do have rest on their side. The Blues played in Vancouver last night, while Calgary’s last game took place way back on January 18. Rust is a bit of a concern, and I’d still opt for a St. Louis power-play stack over the Flames, but if you’re already stacking one of Calgary’s top-two lines, I think @Mark Giordano is worth adding for the power-play correlation.