Daily Fantasy Hockey: Power-Play Report (11/09)

Updated: November 9, 2018 at 3:20 pm by Brock Seguin and Dylan Berthiaume

When you are building your Daily Fantasy Hockey lineup it can be difficult to decide which team to target, which line to target and which power-play to target. 

To try and make that decision easier, Dylan and I have created the Power-play report. Below you will find an in-depth look at how each team’s power-play will match-up with the opposition’s penalty-kill. We have also broken down how much their top power-play plays in comparison to their second unit. 

Stats

  • – All totals are per 60 minutes of 5v4 ice time. 
  • – SF/SA: Shots for/Shots against
  • – SCF/SCA: Scoring Chances For/Against
  • – HDCF/HDCA: High-Dangers Scoring Chances For/Against
  • – PP1 Usage: The percentage of power-play time the top unit has played in the last five games. 

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. New Jersey Devils

Maple Leafs PP Devils PK
PP%/PK% 30.0% (5th) 80.8% (14th)
PP/PK per Gm 2.7 4.4
SH%/SV% 17.19 SH% (6th) .836 SV% (23rd)
Shots 63.72 (4th) 38.33 (4th)
Scoring Chances 77.65 (1st) 44.6 (8th)
High-Danger Chances 31.86 (1st) 12.54 (1st)
PP1 Usage 61.7% —–
Devils PP Maple Leafs PK
PP%/PK% 26.4% (6th) 83.7% (7th)
PP/PK per Gm 4.1 2.8
SH%/SV% 22.81 SH% (2nd) .875 SV% (10th)
Shots 43.73 (29th) 45.41 (10th)
Scoring Chances 39.9 (29th) 48.65 (17th)
High-Danger Chances 15.35 (25th) 16.22 (6th)
PP1 Usage 67.8% —–

Analysis:

New Jersey’s penalty-killers have done a respectable job of limiting their opposition but have been let down by their goaltending. It won’t get any easier for Keith Kinkaid tonight against the sharpshooting Maple Leafs. The Leafs are creating the most scoring chances and high-danger chances with the man advantage in the NHL. At 2.7 powerplays a game, they see some of the fewest opportunities in the NHL. The undisciplined nature of the Devils means you can rely on at least one power-play goal for the Maple Leafs.

The Devils’ 26.4 PP% is heavily inflated by their 22.81 SH%. They’ll need to generate more shots if they want to crack the Leafs’ seventh-ranked PK. Frederik Andersen has been the Maple Leafs’ best penalty-killer this season. He’s posted a ridiculous .938 short-handed SV%.

Washington Capitals vs. Columbus Blue Jackets 

Capitals PP Blue Jackets PK
PP%/PK% 34.0% (1st) 75.5% (24th)
PP/PK per Gm 3.4 3.6
SH%/SV% 25.93 SH% (1st) .800 SV% (28th)
Shots 44.97 (27th) 50.91 (14th)
Scoring Chances 44.97 (21st) 45.82 (11th)
High-Danger Chances 14.99 (26th) 20.36 (17th)
PP1 Usage 73.1% —–
Blue Jackets PP Capitals PK
PP%/PK% 11.9% (31st) 74.5% (25th)
PP/PK per Gm 3.9 3.7
SH%/SV% 6.58 SH% (30th) .761 SV% (30th)
Shots 46.16 (23rd) 37.24 (3rd)
Scoring Chances 42.52 (24th) 41.29 (4th)
High-Danger Chances 15.79 (24th) 22.67 (21st)
PP1 Usage 58.3% —–

Analysis:

The Capitals need to generate more chances if they want to keep their title of the number-one ranked power-play. Their 25.93 SH% has carried their power-play to this point and isn’t sustainable over a full season, even with Alexander Ovechkin on the team. The Capitals’ shot 14.16% on the power-play last season; expect their rate this season to fall more closely in line with that sooner than later. Columbus doesn’t do a great job of limiting high-danger chances against, so Washington’s power-play still carries some upside tonight. John Carlson has been ruled out of tonight’s game, opening up a spot for Matt Niskanen on the top unit.

The Blue Jackets have had no luck on the man advantage this season, owning the worst conversion rate in the league. It won’t get any easier for them tonight as the Capitals are surrendering just 37 shots per 60 on the PK. Braden Holtby seems to be coming into form which could be great news for the Capitals’ penalty-kill. Their .761 short-handed SV% is the second-worst in the NHL.

Detroit Red Wings vs. New York Rangers 

Red Wings PP Rangers PK
PP%/PK% 26.1% (8th) 77.3% (22nd)
PP/PK per Gm 3.1 3.9
SH%/SV% 22.0 SH% (3rd) .874 SV% (13th)
Shots 48.37 (20th) 63.61 (26th)
Scoring Chances 50.31 (16th) 54.1 (24th)
High-Danger Chances 25.15 (10th) 26.32 (27th)
PP1 Usage 54.7% —–
Rangers PP Red Wings PK
PP%/PK% 16.3% (22nd) 82.1% (9th)
PP/PK per Gm 3.3 4.1
SH%/SV% 12.12 SH% (20th) .875 SV% (12th)
Shots 52.74 (16th) 52.17 (16th)
Scoring Chances 42.35 (25th) 46.3 (12th)
High-Danger Chances 19.18 (18th) 18.26 (11th)
PP1 Usage 57.2% —–

Analysis:

For all their struggles this season the Red Wings have found some success on special teams. Their eight-ranked power-play is inflated by the third-highest shooting percentage in the league. The Rangers’ PK is giving up the fifth-most high-danger chances in the league, so the Red Wings’ sharpshooting could continue tonight.

The Rangers have a below-average power-play and draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Red Wings’ penalty-kill. They do a good job of suppressing chances and have received solid goaltending from Jimmy Howard. They should blank the Rangers’ power-play tonight.

St. Louis Blues vs. San Jose Sharks

Blues PP Sharks PK
PP%/PK% 30.8% (3rd) 86.8% (3rd)
PP/PK per Gm 4.0 3.4
SH%/SV% 20.78 SH% (5th) .909 SV% (5th)
Shots 54.99 (11th) 43.26 (7th)
Scoring Chances 57.13 (4th) 51.77 (22nd)
High-Danger Chances 22.85 (11th) 28.84 (30th)
PP1 Usage 58.8% —–
Sharks PP Blues PK
PP%/PK% 20.0% (17th) 80.0% (16th)
PP/PK per Gm 3.1 3.7
SH%/SV% 13.16 SH% (16th) .857 SV% (21st)
Shots 59.11 (6th) 52.67 (17th)
Scoring Chances 55.99 (6th) 56.85 (27th)
High-Danger Chances 28.0 (4th) 20.07 (16th)
PP1 Usage 61.6% —–

Analysis:

The Blues create a lot of scoring chances on the man advantage and they’re making it count, shooting over 20% on the season. They draw a challenging matchup against the Sharks but get the benefit of playing them on a back-to-back. A fatigued Sharks team could open up more opportunities for the Blues to convert on the power-play. If you’re targeting St. Louis’ power-play tonight, keep in mind their second unit sees as much usage as any in the league.

The Sharks power-play is generating shots and scoring chances at a good clip but can have trouble finishing at times. The Blues give up a lot of scoring chances on the PK, which is a recipe for disaster considering their goaltending. Chad Johnson is expected to get the start for St. Louis tonight. He has a career short-handed SV% of .861.

Winnipeg Jets vs. Colorado Avalanche

Jets PP Avalanche PK
PP%/PK% 33.3% (2nd) 84.1% (6th)
PP/PK per Gm 3.0 4.1
SH%/SV% 15.66 SH% (10th) .922 SV% (2nd)
Shots 73.69 (1st) 59.44 (22nd)
Scoring Chances 62.15 (2nd) 48.48 (16th)
High-Danger Chances 31.07 (2nd) 24.24 (25th)
PP1 Usage 76.3% —–
Avalanche PP Jets PK
PP%/PK% 26.4% (7th) 78.4% (19th)
PP/PK per Gm 3.5 3.9
SH%/SV% 15.0 SH% (11th) .899 SV% (7th)
Shots 55.82 (8th) 68.84 (29th)
Scoring Chances 46.06 (20th) 58.41 (29th)
High-Danger Chances 21.63 (13th) 23.64 (23rd)
PP1 Usage 62.4% —–

Analysis:

Semyon Varlamov has carried the Avs’ penalty-kill all season and shows no signs of slowing down. He faces the ultimate test tonight as the Jets do a tremendous job of generating chances for their heavy-shooters. If Colorado takes their average of four minor penalties tonight, expect Winnipeg’s power-play to convert at least once.

Both teams will want to stay out of the box in this one. Colorado’s fearsome power-play should have no problem cracking the shell that is Connor Hellebuyck. Winnipeg is giving up the third-most shots per 60 on the PK, relying far too much on their goaltender. They won’t survive against Nathan Mackinnon and Mikko Rantanen playing that way.

Anaheim Ducks vs. Minnesota Wild

Ducks PP Wild PK
PP%/PK% 14.6% (25th) 86.0% (4th)
PP/PK per Gm 2.8 4.1
SH%/SV% 12.28 SH% (18th) .910 SV% (4th)
Shots 45.79 (25th) 55.06 (19th)
Scoring Chances 46.6 (19th) 43.76 (6th)
High-Danger Chances 12.85 (30th) 13.41 (2nd)
PP1 Usage 62.4% —–
Wild PP Ducks PK
PP%/PK% 20.4% (15th) 78.9% (18th)
PP/PK per Gm 3.3 3.7
SH%/SV% 13.89 SH% (14th) .884 SV% (10th)
Shots 58.6 (7th) 70.05 (30th)
Scoring Chances 61.04 (3rd) 65.97 (31st)
High-Danger Chances 28.49 (3rd) 29.25 (31st)
PP1 Usage 54.4% —–

Analysis:

The Ducks’ dormant power-play shouldn’t be expected to do much of anything against the Wild. The Wild are doing an excellent job of limiting shots to low-danger areas, playing to their strength in goal. Backup Alex Stalock is expected to start for the Wild tonight, giving Anaheim’s power-play a glimmer of hope.

The Wild’s power-play production tonight hinges on whether or not they can beat John Gibson. The opportunities will be there; the Ducks penalty-kill is surrendering the second-most shots and the most scoring chances in the league. Gibson will be rested tonight after Ryan Miller got the nod against the Flames on Wednesday. His .915 short-handed SV% this season is right in line with his career mark of .910.


Top PP Advantages

  1. 1. Colorado

  2. 2. Toronto

  3. 3. Winnipeg

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Brock Seguin and Dylan Berthiaume

DailyFaceoff's Editor-in-chief Brock Seguin and Associate Editor Dylan Berthiaume collaborated on this post.

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