Daily Fantasy Hockey: Power-Play Report (11/16)

Updated: November 30, 2018 at 2:23 pm by Dylan Berthiaume

When you are building your Daily Fantasy Hockey lineup it can be difficult to decide which team to target, which line to target and which power-play to target.

To try and make that decision easier, Dylan and I have created the Power-play report. Below you will find an in-depth look at how each team’s power-play will match-up with the opposition’s penalty-kill. We have also broken down how much their top power-play plays in comparison to their second unit.

Stats

  • – All totals are per 60 minutes of 5v4 ice time.
  • – SF/SA: Shots for/Shots against
  • – SCF/SCA: Scoring Chances For/Against
  • – HDCF/HDCA: High-Dangers Scoring Chances For/Against
  • – PP1 Usage: The percentage of power-play time the top unit has played in the last five games.

Winnipeg Jets vs. Buffalo Sabres

Jets PP Sabres PK
PP%/PK% 34.0% (1st) 81.8% (t-9th)
PP/PK per Gm 2.9 3.4
SH%/SV% 16.84 SH% (9th) .895 SV% (8th)
Shots 74.41 (1st) 59.82 (25th)
Scoring Chances 61.1 (2nd) 45.34 (9th)
High-Danger Chances 28.98 (2nd) 18.26 (9th)
PP1 Usage 73.2% —–
Sabres PP Jets PK
PP%/PK% 17.7% (21st) 82.0% (8th)
PP/PK per Gm 3.4 3.9
SH%/SV% 8.87 SH% (28th) .912 SV% (4th)
Shots 69.25 (3rd) 65.28 (27th)
Scoring Chances 55.85 (6th) 54.97 (26th)
High-Danger Chances 26.25 (5th) 21.76 (16th)
PP1 Usage 65.3% —–

Analysis:

The Sabres are surrendering a lot of shots on the man advantage but are doing a good job of limiting them to low-quality areas. Their eighth-ranked short-handed SV% is reflective of the small amount of high-danger chances they surrender. They’ll be put to the ultimate test tonight against the Jets’ power-play. The Jets’ number-one ranked power-play is well-deserved. They generate the most shots on the man advantage and the second most scoring and high-danger chances. I’d be surprised if the Sabres’ PK is able to blank Patrik Laine and company tonight.

The Sabres are a top-five team in terms of shots and high-danger chances on the power-play, but they’ve been held back by an 8.87 SH%. The Jets do surrender a ton of chances on the PK, but Connor Hellebuyck will do his best to make sure the Sabres’ poor SH% continues. I can’t see Buffalo’s power-play getting more than one passed Hellebuyck tonight.

Dallas Stars vs Boston Bruins

Stars PP Bruins PK
PP%/PK% 22.4% (12th) 76.3% (24th)
PP/PK per Gm 2.7 4.1
SH%/SV% 15.07 SH% (10th) .877 SV% (14th)
Shots 59.52 (5th) 69.43 (30th)
Scoring Chances 48.92 (15th) 51.09 (18th)
High-Danger Chances 17.94 (21st) 22.93 (24th)
PP1 Usage 71.6% —–
Bruins PP Stars PK
PP%/PK% 31.7% (2nd) 80.7% (15th)
PP/PK per Gm 3.5 3.6
SH%/SV% 18.07 SH% (5th) .892 SV% (10th)
Shots 52.71 (17th) 50.56 (15th)
Scoring Chances 50.8 (13th) 57.39 (28th)
High-Danger Chances 20.32 (16th) 22.55 (21st)
PP1 Usage 63.60% —–

Analysis:

The Stars’ power-play could be in for a big night against a struggling Bruins’ penalty-kill. A strength of their team in recent years, the penalty-kill has been holding the Bruins back all season. They are surrendering the second-most shots per 60 while short-handed. Surrendering that kind of shot volume to Benn and Seguin is not a recipe for success. You can bank on the Stars cashing in at least once with the man advantage tonight.

This game could be decided by whichever team takes more penalties. The Bruins have made up for their struggling PK with a dominant power-play. They have the second-best PP% in the NHL, but a lot of that can be attributed to an 18.07 SH%. Their ranking will fall, but this is still an effective power-play. They should do well tonight against a Stars team that’s surrendering the fourth-most scoring chances per 60 on the penalty-kill.

Chicago Blackhawks vs. Los Angeles Kings

Blackhawks PP Kings PK
PP%/PK% 13.8% (28th) 78.4% (19th)
PP/PK per Gm 3.1 3.2
SH%/SV% 7.14 SH% (30th) .857 SV% (19th)
Shots 45.54 (26th) 53.52 (18th)
Scoring Chances 41.63 (26th) 52.13 (21st)
High-Danger Chances 20.17 (18th) 20.85 (14th)
PP1 Usage 66.7% —–
Kings PP Blackhawks PK
PP%/PK% 14.3% (t-26th) 74.5% (26th)
PP/PK per Gm 3.3 2.9
SH%/SV% 10.45 SH% (24th) .856 SV (20th)
Shots 45.98 (24th) 67.08 (29th)
Scoring Chances 41.17 (27th) 58.78 (30th)
High-Danger Chances 20.59 (15th) 27.66 (30th)
PP1 Usage 70.3% —–

Analysis:

The Blackhawk’s power-play has been dormant all season, but they draw a decent match-up tonight against a below-average Kings’ penalty-kill. The Kings’ goaltending situation only adds to the upside of the Blackhawks’ power-play tonight. Rookie Cal Petersen is expected to get the nod for the Kings tonight after Peter Budaj got shelled by the Maple Leafs on Tuesday.

This game features poor special teams all around. The Kings power-play has been anything but impressive this season, but they’re up against one of the worst penalty-kills in the league right now. The Blackhawks’ 26th-ranked PK is well-deserved considering the abundance of shots and scoring chances they surrender. The Kings’ first power-play unit has been seeing upwards of 70% of the power-play ice time, lending credence to a Kings’ power-play stack.

Colorado Avalanche vs. Washington Capitals 

Avalanche PP Capitals PK
PP%/PK% 29.0% (3rd) 72.5% (28th)
PP/PK per Gm 3.4 3.9
SH%/SV% 17.2 SH% (7th) .773 SV% (30th)
Shots 54.96 (12th) 43.18 (7th)
Scoring Chances 47.87 (17th) 42.6 (7th)
High-Danger Chances 24.23 (10th) 22.45 (20th)
PP1 Usage 64.9% —–
Capitals PP Avalanche PK
PP%/PK% 28.8% (4th) 80.8% (14th)
PP/PK per Gm 3.3 4.1
SH%/SV% 20.0 SH% (2nd) .897 SV% (6th)
Shots 48.35 (20th) 58.55 (21st)
Scoring Chances 43.19 (24th) 48.54 (12th)
High-Danger Chances 13.54 (29th) 23.52 (25th)
PP1 Usage 71.9% —–

Analysis:

The Capitals struggles on the penalty-kill are grossly inflated by a terrible .773 SV%, but it won’t get any easier for the Caps’ goaltenders tonight. Colorado’s deadly power-play unit could be in for a big game tonight on home ice. On top of a terrific match-up on the man advantage, Colorado’s first line has a big advantage at even strength tonight, too. Mackinnon, Landeskog, and Rantanen are all in a great spot tonight. They don’t come cheap but fading them is a huge risk in this match-up.

As I continue to point out in these power-play reports, the Capitals’ power-play will continue to slide with their sky-high 20.0 SH%. A solid performance from Philipp Grubauer is all the Avalanche will need to blank the Caps’ overrated power-play tonight.

Anaheim Ducks vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

Ducks PP Maple Leafs PK
PP%/PK% 14.3% (t-26th) 81.8% (t-9th)
PP/PK per Gm 2.8 2.9
SH%/SV% 11.43 SH% (22nd) .880 SV% (13th)
Shots 48.17 (21st) 48.46 (13th)
Scoring Chances 46.1 (21st) 49.1 (16th)
High-Danger Chances 12.39 (31st) 16.8 (8th)
PP1 Usage 52.7% —–
Maple Leafs PP Ducks PK
PP%/PK% 26.8% (7th) 82.4% (7th)
PP/PK per Gm 2.9 3.9
SH%/SV% 13.08 SH% (16th) .897 SV% (7th)
Shots 71.12 (2nd) 65.52 (28th)
Scoring Chances 81.09 (1st) 61.88 (31st)
High-Danger Chances 35-89 (1st) 27.04 (29th)
PP1 Usage 58.2% —–

Analysis:

The Maple Leafs have a big advantage over the Ducks on special teams tonight. The Ducks’ ineffective power-play is validated by the lack of scoring chances they generate. Anaheim is averaging the fewest high-danger chances per 60 with the man advantage in the NHL. The Maple Leafs are a good but not great penalty-killing team. They surrender a decent amount of shots but are effective at limiting them o low-danger areas. The only potential for the Ducks to convert on the power-play tonight stems from Garret Sparks, who is expected to get the start tonight after Andersen played last night in San Jose. Last year’s AHL Goalie of the Year is off to a rough start this season, posting an .879 SV% in three appearances.

The Ducks have the most fraudulent penalty-kill in the league. Their penalty-kill is surrendering the fourth-most shots and the most scoring chances in the NHL, but they’ve been bailed out by the play of John Gibson. Despite facing a barrage of high-danger chances, the Ducks’ goalies have posted an .897 short-handed SV%. Holding up to the usual onslaught of chances will be next to impossible against the Maple Leafs tonight.

Vegas Golden Knights vs. St. Louis Blues 

Golden Knights PP Blues PK
PP%/PK% 16.7% (23rd) 81.1% (13th)
PP/PK per Gm 3.5 3.6
SH%/SV% 10.19 SH% (26th) .865 SV% (16th)
Shots 57.4 (8th) 52.1 (16th)
Scoring Chances 50.49 (14th) 55.62 (27th)
High-Danger Chances 19.66 (19th) 21.12 (15th)
PP1 Usage 57.5% —–
Blues PP Golden Knights PK
PP%/PK% 27.1% (t-6th) 85.5% (t-4th)
PP/PK per Gm 3.7 2.9
SH%/SV% 18.18 SH% (4th) .889 SV% (11th)
Shots 53.87 (14th) 43.16 (6th)
Scoring Chances 58.77 (3rd) 42.47 (6th)
High-Danger Chances 22.04 (12th) 14.39 (3rd)
PP1 Usage 58.8% —–

Analysis:

The Golden Knights’ below-average power-play has suffered from a 10.19 SH%. They should be able to convert at least once tonight if they generate their normal rate of offense. The Blues’ penalty-kill is giving up the fifth-most scoring chances in the NHL, and their lackluster goaltending should help Vegas make good on their chances tonight. The struggling Jake Allen played on Tuesday against the Blackhawks, so don’t be surprised if Chad Johnson is back in net for the Blues tonight. After posting an .891 SV% in 36 games last season, Johnson has defied the odds this season, boasting a .927 SV% in six appearances. Expect his numbers to come back down to earth sooner or later, preferably starting tonight for the Golden Knights’ power-play.

On the flip side of this game, we get the best special teams match-up on the slate. The Blues power-play has been terrific this season, but they run into a suppressing penalty-killing team tonight in the Golden Knights. Usually when a great power-play goes up against a great penalty-kill, the tie goes to the penalty-kill. The disciplined nature of the Golden Knights makes it even less likely that the Blues’ power-play finds the back of the net tonight. Vegas is taking less than three minor penalties per game.


Top PP Advantages

  1. 1. Colorado
  2. 2. Toronto
  3. 3. Dallas
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Dylan Berthiaume

Dylan has been an Associate Editor of DailyFaceoff since 2018 and a co-host of the DFO Podcast since 2015.

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