Daily NHL Betting Guide – 12/28/22
Welcome to our Betting Guide brought to you by NHL Betting site Betway!
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NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via Betway), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on Betway odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Wednesday, December 28
BETTING GUIDE PRESENTED BY BETWAY
Season-to-date
- Record: 56-37
- Units: +26.30
- ROI: +28.27%
Recommended Bets 💰
Boston Bruins (@ NJD) ML +100
The Bruins ran into a hot goalie in Ottawa last night or else they would have emerged with their 28th win in 34 games. Boston continues to play like one of the best teams in the NHL and the back-to-back does not worry me in this situation. For one, the model likes it so much that even if you downgrade them slightly for the back-to-back, they would still be in range. Additionally, they were in this exact same spot a week ago and won. They went into New Jersey on Friday after beating the Jets at home on Thursday and took care of the Devils 4-3.
2 Unit Bet: BOS ML +100
Vegas Golden Knights (@ ANA) ML -182
The Golden Knights are also on a back-to-back but face much easier competition. It’s unclear when Jack Eichel returns but it seems as if there’s a chance that Jonathan Marchessault is back in the lineup on Wednesday. If this line (-182) is still floating around tonight, I like Vegas on the moneyline if Marchessault plays. If it’s super stretched out by the time we get Marchessault news, then pass.
1 Unit Bet: VGK ML -182 (if Marchessault plays)
Watch for Line Movement 👀
Pittsburgh Penguins (vs. DET)
The model isn’t recommending a bet on the Penguins at -197, but if the line moves towards the Red Wings at all, they could come into range. If you can find Pittsburgh around -186, then it would be a 1 unit bet.
1 Unit Bet: PIT ML -186 or better
Calgary Flames (@ SEA)
The same thing goes for the Flames and line movement towards the Kraken seems more likely. They are not a bet as small -102 favourites but they would be if you can find them around +103 or better.
1 Unit Bet: CGY ML +103 or better