Daily NHL betting guide: December 2
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Brock Seguin’s Pick
Recommended Bets
Florida Panthers (vs. BUF)
This is a massive mismatch, Florida is fourth in xGF% (55.0%), and Buffalo is 28th (45.6%). Even as massive favorites (-275), the model still sees value on the Panthers.
Florida continues to be dominant on home ice, winning 12 of 13 while averaging 4.31 goals-for and 2.38 goals-against per game. Meanwhile, the Sabres are at 2-5-2 on the road while being outscored 32-to-23.
1 Unit Bet: FLA -275
Tampa Bay Lightning (vs. STL)
The Lightning nearly beat these Blues on the road on Tuesday and did so without Steven Stamkos or Andrei Vasilevskiy. Both should be back tonight, and the model recognizes value on them at -142. The Lightning have won five of their last six home games while averaging 3.67 goals-for and 2.00 goals-against per game.
1 Unit Bet: TBL -142
Minnesota Wild (vs. NJD)
The Devils got a spark with Jack Hughes returning to the lineup on Tuesday but were blown out by the Sharks. Now they have a tough matchup in Minnesota. The Wild are among the best 5v5 teams in the NHL, ranking 10th in xGF/60 (2.43) and fifth in xGA (2.04). The Wild are 8-2-0 while averaging 4.60 goals-for per game on home ice this season.
1 Unit Bet: MIN -174
Washington Capitals (vs. CHI)
The model is in love with the favorites tonight, identifying the Capitals as the fourth bet of the night. The Blackhawks have been better defensively since the coaching change, but their offense is among the worst in the league. Since hiring Derek King the only two teams they have a higher xGF/60 than are Ottawa and Arizona. Not great. The Capitals have been playing some terrific hockey, winning nine of their last 12 (9-2-1) while only giving up 2.33 against per game. It’s hard to envision the Blackhawks generating enough offense to win this one.
1 Unit Bet: WSH -197
Proceed with Caution ⚠️
New York Islanders (vs. SJS)
Even though the model is recommending a bet on the Islanders (-127) they are coming off of a COVID postponement and it’s unclear who will be in the lineup tonight. Even if they get everyone back, it’s a tough enough spot to stay away from tonight.
Tyler Yaremchuk’s Picks
Game Pick
Yaremchuk’s Pick – Carolina -1.5 (-136) vs OTT
I’m really not trying to overthink this one. Yes, the Canes are going through a bit of a rough patch right now but they’re clearly the better team in this matchup by a wide margin. The fact that this game is in Carolina helps as well because the Senators have just one road win in nine games this season. The goaltending matchup is Anton Forsberg vs Antti Raanta which also clearly favors the Canes. I’m picking them to bounce back and cover the puck line tonight vs Ottawa.
Yaremchuk’s Prop – Aaron Ekblad over 0.5 assists (-115) vs. BUF
Another win last night in the prop department thanks to Dylan Larkin!
Tonight, I’m going to bet on Aaron Ekblad picking up at least one assist in the Panthers’ matchup against the Sabres. He has apples in six of his last eight games and he consistently logs heavy minutes at both 5v5 and on the power play. The Panthers have a projected team total of four goals and I like Ekblad’s chances of being involved in the offense tonight.