Daily NHL betting guide: January 28
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Model’s Picks
Recommended Bets
Colorado Avalanche (vs. CHI)
The Avalanche will be without Nathan MacKinnon for at least the next three games, after suffering a facial fracture and concussion on Tuesday. However, the Blackhawks will be without a center of their own, as Jonathan Toews is also dealing with a concussion.
The Avalanche are among, if not the top team in the NHL, while the Blackhawks are a in the bottom-10 in xGF% (47.2). This is a huge mismatch, even without MacKinnon, and the model thinks COL should be closer to -225 than -180.
1 Unit Bet: COL -181
Proceed with Caution ⚠️
New York Rangers (vs. MIN)
The Rangers have a chance whenever Igor Shesterkin gets the start, but it will be a little more difficult on Friday. A few injuries up front (Kaapo Kakko & Filip Chytil) has really thinned out their forward group and Adam Fox (upper-body) was placed on IR this afternoon, forcing them to re-shuffle their blueline and power-play. They’re also on a back-to-back, while the Wild have been off since Monday. It’s a tough spot for New York, even as small home favorites (+131).
Arizona Coyotes (vs. BOS)
I’ve been brave with the Coyotes in the past but they’re only worth considering when Karel Vejmelka gets the start. With Scott Wedgewood starting tonight, stay far, far away.
Tyler Yaremchuk’s Picks
Game Pick
Colorado Avalanche Puck Line at Chicago Blackhawks (+125)
Well, I have been ice cold recently, so let’s hope that changes. The Blackhawks have one win in their last five and tonight, they’ll be going up against a Colorado team that is just scorching hot. The Avalanche have won eight in a row and covered the spread in four of them. Tonight, Colorado’s plus money on the Puck Line against the Blackhawks and I love this spot. The Avs, even without Nathan MacKinnon, should be fine tonight against Chicago.
I’m also taking the Bruins’ Puck Line against Arizona, as I explained on The Daily Faceoff Show.
Prop Pick
Bryan Rust Over 0.5 assists vs. Detroit Red Wings (-110)
Rust has hit this mark in four of his last five games and has a total of seven assists in that span. He’s also hit this mark in seven of his last 10 games. The Penguins struggled to score last night, but they’re going up against a Red Wings team that has struggled to keep the puck out of their net recently with 19 goals against in their last four. I like Rust to grab an apple tonight.