DailyFaceoff/Corsica NHL Bets (December 10th)

Updated: December 10, 2018 at 4:03 pm by Dylan Berthiaume

With limited options to choose from on Friday’s slate, the Corsica NHL betting predictions went all in on the Ducks over the Hurricanes. The Ducks covering a +1.5-goal spread against Carolina was pegged to be the most probable bet to hit at 75.49%, while Anaheim on the moneyline was thought to offer the most value. John Gibson played admirably but it wasn’t enough to make up for his team being outshot 35-19 by the Canes. Sebastian Aho added a late empty-netter to make the final 4-1 for Carolina, snapping the Ducks’ five-game winning streak.

Corsica looks to get back on track tonight with another four-game slate. I’ve highlighted its most probable and valuable bets below. Good luck!

If you’re new to sports betting and want to learn more, check out Andy MacNeil’s introductory post HERE.

Highest Probability

Kings @ Red Wings – Spread | LAK +1.5 (-270)

A streaking Red Wings team is the favourite to win this one, but their underlying numbers suggest some serious flaws beyond their top line. Andreas Athanasiou and Frans Nielsen have been getting out-chanced and outshot at 5v5 but have been boosted of late by a gaudy on-ice SH%. Luke Glendening and Tyler Bertuzzi are ineffective at limiting their opposition at 5v5 yet continue to get matched up against the opposition’s best on home ice. They’re surrendering over 13 high-danger chances per 60 at 5v5, suggesting the Kopitar line is due to see some premium scoring chances tonight.

That top line of Anze Kopitar, Alex Iafallo, and Dustin Brown have looked more like themselves of late and some recent shuffling to the Kings’ top nine should give them more depth moving forward. Jeff Carter should be able to carry his own line at even strength while Tyler Toffoli makes for a nice complement to Adrian Kempe on the third line. Overall, the Kings hold a slight advantage over the Red Wings at 5v5, which explains why Corsica gives them a 73.82% chance of covering the spread tonight.

Highest Value

Rangers @ Lightning – Over/Under | Under 6.5 (+110)

According to Corsica, with a 63.12% chance of coming to fruition, the under on the Rangers and Lightning game offers by far the most value of any bet on tonight’s slate. Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov routinely match up against the opposing team’s top line on home ice, so we can expect to see them go head-to-head with the Zibanejad line tonight. The Rangers’ top line is no pushover at even strength. Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider regularly out-chance their opponents and are surrendering just 22 scoring chances per 60 at 5v5. They should be able to maintain the normally-dominant line of Point, Kucherov, and Tyler Johnson tonight, which should in turn keep the goal-scoring relatively low.

Tampa Bay’s first and third lines boast a significant advantage over the depth of the Rangers at even strength, but it’s unlikely, to say the least, that they get to 6.5 goals on their own. Throw in a pair of hot goaltenders in Henrik Lundqvist and Louis Domingue, and it’s easy to see why Corsica is so high on betting the under in this one.

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Dylan Berthiaume

Dylan has been an Associate Editor of DailyFaceoff since 2018 and a co-host of the DFO Podcast since 2015.
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