DailyFaceoff/Corsica NHL Bets (December 12th)
While this post highlights just the highest value and probability bets on a given night, Corsica generates predictions for every NHL game that can be found here. The highest probability bet is that which Corsica believes has the best chance of coming through, regardless of the odds. The highest value bet will always come with some associated risk.
You can find out more about how Corsica generates these predictions here.
Highest Probability
Golden Knights @ Islanders – Spread | NYI +1.5 (-207)
According to Corsica, with a 68.77% chance of coming to fruition, the Islanders covering a +1.5-goal spread is by far the most probable bet on tonight’s slate. While the Golden Knights’ top line continues to steamroll the competition at 5v5, their depth has been tested with the injuries to Paul Stastny and Erik Haula. Stastny is close to returning but won’t be back for tonight’s game against the Isles, leaving Cody Eakin to centre Max Pacioretty and Alex Tuch on the second line. The Islanders’ potent top-six should be able to score with that of the Golden Knights, keeping this game tight to the end.
Based off their performances this season, the Islanders should have a slight advantage in goal tonight, as well. Marc-Andre Fleury has mustered just a .908 SV% in 28 games this season, while Robin Lehner has posted a much more respectable .916 SV% for the Isles. Lehner comes into tonight’s game having allowed just two goals on 60 shots (.967 SV%) in his last two starts. A similar performance from Lehner tonight would almost guarantee his team a win against the spread.
Highest Value
Flyers @ Flames – Over/Under | Under 6.5 (+107)
No bet on tonight’s four-game slate offers more bang for your buck than the Flames and Flyers finishing with less than 6.5 goals. There’s obviously some risk in playing the under in a game that features Anthony Stolarz and Mike Smith in goal, but there doesn’t project to be a whole lot of offense at 5v5 in this one.
Normally one of the best even strength lines in hockey, the Flyers are experimenting with Claude Giroux in the middle of their top line as Sean Couturier slides down to centre line two. While this move should make them a deeper team in the long run, it’s been a while since Giroux last played predominantly centre and we should expect some sort of an adjustment period. The Flames’ top-six is not without its own question marks with the recent injury to Mikael Backlund. Derek Ryan is expected to centre the second line tonight, limiting the upside of a typically effective line for the Flames.
Additionally, while the Flames’ power-play has converted a respectable 22.4% of their opportunities, the Flyers’ boast the league’s third-worst conversion rate at 13.6%. The Flyers’ ineffective power-play should help keep the goal-scoring to a minimum in this one.